1/ There are actors in the Brexit conversation who have consistently evoked the WTO to hand-wave the consequences of No-Deal.
They have been at it for years and they still are.
They are wrong and dangerously so, and the proof has started to emerge.
A thread on one example.
2/ Context: Earlier, the French Embassy tweeted out a fact-sheet on what UK plant and animal product exporters will have to do in order to bring their goods into the EU.
It's a procedure including paperwork and at-border vet checks.
The very definition of a non-tariff barrier.
3/ There's nothing surprising in this document. The French are planning to apply to the UK the same checks and obligations as they do to any 3rd country supplier.
This was always coming...
... but that's not what the British public were told.
4/ Here's Professor David Collins in the Spectator in August last year writing that the exact barriers described above and confidently predicted by literally everyone wouldn't happen because they'd be illegal under the WTO's SPS and TBT agreements.
spectator.co.uk/2018/08/whos-a…
5/ Here he is providing the legal rationale behind this view in September of 2018.
I particularly enjoyed the last few paragraphs where he speculates whether those who disagree with him are fear-mongers, EU agents or profiteers.
lawyersforbritain.org/brexit-and-the…
6/ Prefer to be misled by economists instead of legal scholars?
My boy Professor P. Minford has your back, yo.
Here's a passage from the Economists for Free Trade Report "No Deal is the Best Deal for the UK."
You can read it here: economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/upl…
... but I wouldn't.
7/ What about some political leaders?
Well, here's Jacob Rees-Mogg making the claim these barriers will never happen while chiding the Treasury for being silly enough to model that they will.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
8/ So there you have it.
The No-Dealer's favorite WTO law professor, their favorite economist, and their favorite Charles Dickens Esq character.
All confident.
All dismissive of dissenters.
All wrong about what UK exporters will face.
Draw your own conclusions. /end
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