Dmitry Grozoubinski Profile picture
Founder https://t.co/sbyaHBoW9V. Trainer in negotiation skills & trade policy. Fmr Aussie trade negotiator and current Visiting Prof. at @UniStrathclyde. (He/Him)
Chris #WearAMask 3.5% #RejoinEU #FBPE Profile picture Jay Jernigan Profile picture Hugh #FBPE Profile picture M🕷FBPEGlobal #ForeverEuropean #BlackLivesMatter Profile picture Jeffrey Rubinoff Profile picture 24 added to My Authors
19 Jul
This is a huge deal.

At the end of the transition period, the Amazon marketplace will effectively no longer allow you to continue stocking in the UK and selling into Europe (or vice versa) as you do today.

tamebay.com/2020/07/amazon…
PSA: You don't all have to individually reply to inform me you are not surprised by this.
If you're like to better understand this issue, why it's happening and its likely implications I recommend this thread by @AnnaJerzewska (who you should all be following already, frankly).

Read 3 tweets
13 Jul
1/ Many people understandably wonder why harder Brexit introducing paperwork at the borders is such a big deal.

After all, most borders have paperwork and the UK's trade with non-EU countries has always had it.

Entirely reasonable to wonder what the problem is.
2/ The first challenge is adjustment.

Imagine a new rule: every time you commutte to work an official stops you to prove you can shuffle.

Eventually everyone would learn the dance...

But for a while the cost, and lack of trainers and shuffle-screeners would be disruptive.
3/ The next challenge is supply chain structure.

Places that have goods borders tend to evolve trade that takes them into acount.

If you know you have to fill out paperwork per thing in your consignment, you're best off shipping big loads of just one or two things.
Read 9 tweets
11 Jul
"I never thought trucks would pile up at MY border," weeps MP from the Trucks Piling Up at Borders Party.
1/ Since this is blowing up a little, let's talk about why this parking lot is being built and the choices (beyond holding a referendum and implementing its result) that brought this about.

Brace yourselves ya'll, we're threadin'.
2/ "Why do we need giant truck parking lots?"

Because from the end of the transition period, trucks moving things UK-EU will need to stop and present significantly more paperwork than before.

The lots are for trucks without papers, wrong papers, or if there are queues.
Read 10 tweets
9 Jul
The European Union has just released its sector by sector Brexit preparedness notices.

If your businesses, your suppliers, your vendors or your customers buy or sell anything to or from the European Union, getting across these documents is critical.

ec.europa.eu/info/european-…
-screams in trucks-
-screams in human-
Read 7 tweets
18 Jun
1/ An interesting proposal.

Basically both sides eliminate tariffs, but the UK would reserve the right to fall out of step with EU Level Playing Field rules.

If they did so, the EU would have the right to raise tariffs.

A thread on how negotiators might approach this.
2/ This proposal is different from what you normally see in trade agreements. Ordinarily, FTAs are a bunch of rules everyone agrees to follow.

Dispute settlement, whether at the WTO or in an FTA is there to (theoretically) resolve disagreements about what following rules means.
3/ This proposal is different, in that the UK would not be making a legal commitment to follow EU LPF, only accepting that not doing so would carry consequences.

That's similar in effect, but very different symbolically.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
So as an abusive cop you get...

1️⃣ Qualified immunity plus anonymous uniforms to protect you from the public.

2️⃣ A culture of fraternal loyalty and a 'together in the foxhole' mentality to protect you from your peers.

3️⃣ A hair trigger union to protect you from your bosses.
In economics and trade we often look to where the policy and commercial incentives are pushing people for clues on how they might act.

Just saying.
Should add at least historically:

4️⃣ Inherent respect and a strong presumption of innocence and honesty from the judicial system and most of the general public.

Soldiers have commited no end of illegal horrors with only 1️⃣2️⃣&4️⃣.
Read 3 tweets
5 Jun
I can't believe I have to clarify this but: My explanation of a policy isn't an endorsement of it.
Me: Here's how the Government's dual tariff chlorinated chicken proposal would work.

#FBPE:
I've screenshotted and anonymised it for a reason, please don't go track them down and pile on.
Read 3 tweets
5 Jun
1/ A lot of confusion over the latest rumored UK thinking on US Chlorinated Chicken and dual tariffs.

A thread to explain the idea as simply as I can (but it's complicated so apologies in advance).

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
2/ "So, what's the proposal?"

Currently, import of chlroine washed chicken is banned in the UK (and EU).

The idea would be to lift that ban and then in an FTA with the US, lower tariffs on ONLY the chicken which ISN'T chlorine washed.
3/ "Why?"

Chlorine washing a chicken to clean it after slaughter enables production methods (how you raise and treat chickens) that are cheaper, but aren't allowed in the UK.

This provides farmers in the US who employ these methods a cost advantage over UK competitors.
Read 10 tweets
5 Jun
@NicoleSykes_ @anandMenon1 @UKandEU @drsarah_hall @pmdfoster @jillongovt When a humble shipment
Graced a customs post
At the Port of Dover
Along came this fooorm

When the HRMC sought
A proper valuation
The appropriate stamps
Accusations of fraud did they level

They came after fees
With questions on receipts
And so cried the shipper
It's just meat
@NicoleSykes_ @anandMenon1 @UKandEU @drsarah_hall @pmdfoster @jillongovt (Last line should be "It's just some meaaat" but I ran out of characters).
Read 3 tweets
31 May
There is literally no other group that even has a chance of changing senior Tory opinion.

No amount of @BestForBritain studies, @instituteforgov reports, or frankly DmitryOpines twitter threads can substitute for business leaders saying publicly what they're muttering privately.
I have all the sympathy in the world for business leaders who at the moment are:

a) far too busy keeping their companies alive; or
b) terrified of pissing off the very government whose largesse they'll depend on to get through the next 12 months...

to speak out.

I get it.
But there's no alternative. There's no one to free ride on.

No mysterious alternative group of people at the intersection of "understands importance of transition extension" and "actually listened to by Tories sometimes" exists to speak out so you don't have to.
Read 5 tweets
27 May
I see this point a lot and I wanted to say three things about it:

1) @BBCkatyaadler is right, fishing is not a major contributor to UK GDP;

2) It IS significant for those that work in it, their communities and their families.

3) This overlooks what's actually on the table.
Expanding on 3:

People (not Katy) often talk about fishing's contribution to GDP like if the UK gives ground the UK fishing industry will cease to exist.

I don't think there's a lot of evidence to support that conclusion.
Ironically, failure to secure tariff free access into the EU and failure to streamline UK caught seafoods passage through EU SPS and customs screening may do more damage to the industry than any waters access outcome.
Read 3 tweets
23 May
@jimallthetime @r0wly86 @julianefurman "The government has yet to comment or of an explanation of Mr Cummings behavior" would be 100% factually correct.

What would the criticism be, "Why didn't you print our anonymous and unofficial explanation?"
@jimallthetime @r0wly86 @julianefurman The government should absolutely:

1) Get the right of reply, including in the story.

2) Get the opportunity to provide context and background off the record.

3) Have requests for more time to formulate an official position favorably considered.
@jimallthetime @r0wly86 @julianefurman What I don't think it should be enabled to do is unofficially and anonymously float its position, without so much as risking the reputation of the messenger.
Read 3 tweets
22 May
How exposed is EU Agriculture to a No-Deal with the UK?

My experiments in data visualization continue (feedback welcome).

Quick summary: Only a small part of what the EU grows goes to the UK (7% in 2016) but 85% of that would face moderate to high tariffs under No-Deal.
Question:

"How much of the UK's food imports came from the EU?"

Answer:

In 2016 it looks like 63%.
Question:

"What share of the UK's food comes from the Euroean Union?"

Answer:

In 2016 UK grew 20 billion pounds worth of agriculture, exported 10 billion & imported 28 billion of which 18 billion was from the European Union.

So EU imports made up 47% of Ag in the country.
Read 6 tweets
22 May
1/ As a D&D Dungeon Master, or any Game Master, your number one duty is to the safety and comfort of the players exploring your world, and you have to be proactive about it.

Part of that is declining to play with people who claim safety consciousness ruins their enjoyment.
2/ You have to be proactive because players at a table will feel a tremendous amount of peer pressure to "go along" with your world and the other players even when deeply uncomfortable.

We've seen it play out live on streams, even with professional players with large followings.
3/ While D&D can be a way to explore phobias, trauma and deeply adult themes, very few tables absolutely NEED to do so - and none without the full consent and buy in of everyone present.
Read 6 tweets
21 May
Just a reminder that the WTO Agreement on Agriculture was basically the US, EU and Japan writing rules by carefully drawing a line around their own regimes.

It's absurdly generous in terms of the subsidies it permits, especially to Developed countries.
If you live in a Developed Country, represent farmers, asked for a subsidy and were rejected "because of WTO rules" then 99% chance:

a) They were wrong; or

b) They were lying; or

c) They could have come up with an alternate way to legally subsidize you with 10 minutes thought.
I'm basically not exaggerating.

Unless you're asking for a subsidy directly linked to how much you export, or for the government to establish price support (and even then, the EU has 80 more billion in AMS to burn), the WTO rules aren't the problem.
Read 5 tweets
21 May
Last chart for today.

Whenever I talk about the consequences of No Trade Deal being marginal compared to the broader and inevitable costs of leaving the Single Market/Customs Union, I'm always careful to add, "except for in some sectors, like agriculture."

This is why:
cc @FGAbiKay and @NFUtweets in case interesting.
Just for absolute clarity since a few people have been confused:

The 76% in that graph represents the 76% of the UK's total agricultural production in 2016 that DIDN'T get exported to the EU (was exported elsewhere, eaten, stored, thrown out or transformed).
Read 3 tweets
21 May
1/ With the UK's new tariff schedule released, we have a revised picture of what's at risk for the two sides in the EU-UK FTA negotiations.

I've looked at the 2018 data to help you get a visual, and made two charts for your consideration.
2/ Let's start with this one. This is a look at how much (in $ terms) of what the UK and EU sold to each other in 2018 would have been subject to tariffs if they were trading on WTO terms.

In other words, if Brexit happened in 2017 and no FTA was in place.
3/ As you can see, the two graphs actually look pretty similar proportionally.

However, the EU trade surplus means more of their exports in dollar terms would face high (>5% or non-AV) tariffs.

Conversely, more of their exports in $ terms would also remain tariff free.
Read 9 tweets
20 May
A trade weighted version of the UK's 3 tariff regimes (EU28, Temporary No-Deal and the ones just released).

Somewhat hesitant to share this as it's VERY open to misinterpretation, but doing so since @StevePeers asked.
Question:

"What the fuck am I looking at here, nerd?"

Answer:

"The value of all goods the UK imported in 2018, from everywhere, broken down by the tariffs that would have applied to them under the three UK tariff regimes."
Question:

"But the UK was in the EU and has FTA's and grants developing country preferences..."

Answer:

"Absolutely. All correct. This chart doesn't take any of that into account. It's just there to give you a very general comparison of how restrictive the regimes are."
Read 5 tweets
19 May
1/ When it comes to the UK-EU FTA, both "Cakeism" and "Canada Style Deal" are stupid slogans that need to be retired.

Today's text release only confirmed further it.
2/ Cakeism

Every FTA the EU has ever signed has been with a party trying to secure maximum access to the EU Single Market and Customs Union without taking on the full obligations of EU Membership.

It was a debatably relevant slur in the WA negotiations, but it's 100% dumb now.
3/ Canada Style Deal

First, every FTA is a unique calculation of asks, demands and market conditions. There's no automatic precedent anywhere.

Second, the UK Draft text makes it clear they want more CETA in one places, less than CETA another and way more than CETA in a third.
Read 5 tweets
18 May
Winning the argument is significant:

1️⃣ Politically, if YOUR stakeholders can be convinced any failure in the talks is due to the other side.

2️⃣ For the negotiations, if THEIR stakeholders accept your arguments and reconsider their positions.

Some evidence of 1️⃣, little of 2️⃣.
Note: My evidence of 1️⃣ is purely anecdotal and based on a combination of tedious reply guys in my mentions and roughly 36,000 Telegraph op-eds a week.
Note: My argument that there is little evidence of 2️⃣ stems from the lack of op-eds in major EU papers calling for the EU to compromise to get a, deal done.

No one over there seems to give a shit.
Read 4 tweets
17 May
1/ Expert(ish) Opinion:
Negotiations can work in an atmosphere of mistrust, under three circumstances.

i) The stakes and level of ambition are so low future deviation by either side wouldn't be a big blow. Some developing country FTAs probably fall into this category.
2/

ii) Both sides, anticipating chicanery, include maximally specific and legally perceptive language everywhere, leaving nothing to interpretation.

This is agonising to negotiate and agree.
3/

iii) The agreement includes incredibly robust dispute settlement and enforcement provisions. Both sides sign knowing that if there's funny business, they'll have strong options.

This very rarely actually works, but in theory it's possible.
Read 5 tweets