Thread by @edwinhayward

The Jeremy Corbyn dilemma
[Please read to end of thread (marked "THE END") before commenting - thank you]

1. JC has to call any VONC for it to be binding (any MP can, but Boris Johnson can ignore anyone else's). So JC's role is vital.

2. JC has said he will only call a VONC if he is sure that it will succeed. To be "sure", he will need strong commitments from enough non-Labour MPs in advance (presumably public ones so they can't back out afterwards). He needs moderate Tories on board, as well as other parties.

3. However, JC insists that he must be made PM afterwards. And he has said he won't support a Government of National Unity led by anyone but him.

4. And people close to him, like John McDonnell, have said that Labour intends to pursue its manifesto once it's in power. (And by implication dare MPs to vote it down, see the new Government fail, and get Boris Johnson and no deal Brexit back.)

5. So with all these preconditions attached, MPs from other parties won't back a VONC. Not in sufficient numbers to get the majority that JC has said he must be sure of getting before he calls it.

6. So the VONC won't be held at all, because JC will never get his reassurance.

7. But without the VONC, the horse trading to form a Government of National Unity cannot start. VONC must come before GNU. There's no way of skipping a step.

8. Unlike for a JC-led minority Labour government, there may well be a majority across the HOC for a proper GNU i.e. one made up of all the parties, for a specific purpose, and led by an uncontroversial choice like Ken Clarke or Harriet Harmon.

9. In other words, if we could get as far as the post-VONC haggling stage, it's likely a GNU could be cobbled together to stop a no deal Brexit.

10. But we can never get there because of Corbyn. His role in all this is vital. He is too divisive to gather enough support himself, but he can unlock the whole VONC/GNU on behalf of everyone else, and swing Labour support behind the GNU.

11. JC would still be Labour leader. He would still be able to lead Labour in the forthcoming GE. And he would have been seen to do something proactive and meaningful to try and thwart a no deal Brexit.

12. Jo Swinson and others recognised the truth of the above early. They also know there's *no time to waste*. So they tried to jump straight past the whole "JC wants to be PM" step because they knew it had zero chance of happening.

13. People who don't grasp the whole situation say "But the LD are bringing 14 MPs to the table, Labour 240+. Why are the LDs calling the shots?" But 14+240 isn't a majority. JC needs the support of *many* more MPs, including Tories.

14. But as has already been made publicly clear, moderate Tories and others won't support JC. They don't trust him. Whether that's good, bad, outrageous or terrible is *irrelevant*. What matters is that it's true. So arguing about it is just time wasting. Reality - deal with it.

15. The other thing people don't seem to grasp is that Jo Swinson wasn't saying "Corbyn can't be Labour leader." Nor was she saying "I want to be in charge of a GNU". She was explicitly advocating for a neutral figure to get past the logjam. This isn't a LibDem coup or trick.

16. So we come back to JC as both the most important process in the whole VONC/GNU plan, and the biggest roadblock. At the moment he's the villain, but he could become the hero instantly if he changes his mind.

17. All he has to do is get behind a common cause GNU lead by someone above the political fray, someone who will never seek to lead the "party" they've created (GNU) into an election.

18. And if JC does that he'll have the GE he's been craving for years within a matter of weeks, and he'll go into it with a head of steam. Labour haven't got long to win back disgruntled voters upset at their handling of Brexit. This would be a fabulous start.

[THE END - Phew!]