(1/7)

Brexit's impacts haven't vanished.

Prices are higher. NHS waiting lists are longer. Some businesses struggle to hire staff.

These aren't just "post-Covid" or "global issues".

Brexit changed how Britain trades & works. That still shapes daily life. (2/7)

But people aren’t talking much about Brexit anymore.

Why? Not because it’s fixed. It’s because the connection got blurry.

When problems stack up (energy bills, war, inflation), it’s hard to spot which bit comes from Brexit.

There is no US trade deal.

Despite the performative circus yesterday, Starmer on Zoom in Trump's Oval Office press conference, there is no deal.

All that exists is a document setting out in general terms the parameters of a possible deal.

Everything remains to be negotiated. SOURCE
gov.uk/government/pub…

THREAD: My initial take on the new US trade deal

1. It's not finalised. According to the NYT, months of negotiations lie ahead.

2. Issue of food standards isn't dead yet, according to comments made in Trump's press conference (even though the UK side believe it is!)

1/6 3. Not clear what concessions have been made to the USA on agricultural products but their deal readout suggests a "US$250 million opportunity" for US exporters that wasn't there before.

4. British car manufacturers are better off than this morning, but not than months ago.

2/6

Some more experiments with AI music generation. See what you think...

(One video per tweet. Each includes a static image with the song as soundtrack. Links to Youtube versions at end of thread, together with a rundown of the tools I used to produce them.)

1. Humanity Ascendant Tomorrow's Tomorrow

Perhaps it's unworkable, but this feels like it would be a fair tax system...

1) Set the tax free allowance so that it is the same as annualised minimum wage, and raise it every year in line with inflation. Do the same for NI thresholds. So someone on exactly the minimum wage will never pay tax/NI. If it's really meant to be the "minimum" people need to live on, then let them keep all of it.

2) No clawbacks of the tax free allowance no matter your income level. Everyone gets the same untaxed band.

3) Eliminate all 100%+ tax situations. Work should always pay, regardless of the combination of salary and benefits you're receiving. Set a maximum (say 75% combined for tax + NI) and fiddle with the tax system so there are no cliff edges that create effective tax rates above that 75%. In other words, if your income from any source increases by £1, you should never gain less than 25p.

4) Tax every source of income exactly the same. EVERYTHING falls under the same regime - salary, dividends, capital gains, etc. - with no loopholes or exceptions. (If expensive tax lawyers are left twiddling their thumbs, you know the revised system is working.)

5) Adjust all the rest of the income tax and national insurance bands above the sacrosanct "no tax/no NI" lowest band to allow for 1) to 4). This will almost certainly require more tax bands and more granularity.

Net result:
- There's a sense of basic fairness across society: everyone earning at or over the annualised minimum wage (regardless of the source of the money) gets to keep at least the annualised minimum wage component of their total income.
- Work always pays, period.
- There's no point at all in trying to optimise how you make money or game the system because all sources of income are taxed exactly the same

Ok, over to you. What do you think? Be gentle, please. It may well be a naive plan, but it's a naive well-intentioned plan. Added:

I also believe that NI should be eliminated and there should be just one combined tax.

But that's not necessary for anything I've outlined above - it just makes things simpler, especially when you're taxing ALL income from ALL sources the same - so I left it out.

THREAD

As Labour are coming up to 100 days in power, it's good to ponder why their honeymoon was so short, and why they appear to be getting a torrid time from media outlets all across the political spectrum.

I've illustrated what I believe is happening. More below...

1/4 The average person's expectations of the Tories was VERY low. Yet they underperformed even that low bar.

On the other hand, people had high hopes of Labour. The gap between such stellar expectations and reality is wider than on the Tory side - even though Labour are better.

2/4

This is what Flux-AI gave me in response to the prompt: "The most quintessentially English scene possible". Here is Dall-E-3's attempt.

(Same prompt. I'm not picking and choosing. I gave each AI just one shot at it.)

THREAD: The BBC have been having an absolute shocker the last couple of days.

Let's concentrate on 3 specific examples.

Example 1: Laura Kuenssberg's diabolic introduction to her interview with Ed Davey.

No spoilers. Wait until the end. It's worth it.
Example 2: The case of the quietly changed headline.

Original one (left)


Changed version a few hours later (right).


Remember, the one on the left is the one most of the BBC News website visitors will have been exposed to. web.archive.org/web/2024070606…
web.archive.org/web/2024070622…

This is not the election for protest votes.

For the first time, we could demote the Tories to third. Winning fewer seats than the LibDems would wipe them out as a political force.

Polls suggest this is within reach, but we need tactical voting to get us over the line.

1/12 Our choice is stark:

5 long years of the Tories in Opposition, pushing a hate-filled agenda of culture wars and immigrant-bashing.

Or the LibDems in Opposition, holding Labour to account on the issues that matter, with the Tories fuming, impotent, on the back benches.

2/12

You have a huge decision to make on Thursday:

1) Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.

2) LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on the back benches.

If the Tories are pushed into third, everything changes. Here's why:

1/12 Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their divisive hate-fuelled agenda.

But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.

Second place brings substantial benefits:

2/12

You have a huge choice to make on Thursday:

Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.

OR

LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on the back benches.

If the Tories are pushed into third, that changes everything. Here's why:

1/12 Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their divisive hate-fuelled agenda.

But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.

Second place brings substantial benefits:

2/12

Here's a significant new Tory scandal, a hit job on Keir Starmer which somehow contrived to draw in an indirect attack on Jewish faith.

(Long tweet. It is necessary to cover the scandal in full. Please expand to see the whole thing.)

They are attacking him for saying that he would "clock off work at 6pm if he became Prime Minister".

They also said "You deserve better than a part-time Prime Minister."

There are two big problems with this.

Problem number one: That's not what he said. The Tories are quoting selectively out of context, like a film poster which reads "spectacular effects" when the original review said "spectacular failure, with lacklustre effects".

It was only ever about Friday evenings, not every day.

Here's what Keir Starmer actually said:

-- transcript starts --
Keir Starmer: We have had a strategy in place and we will try and keep to it, and that it is to carve out really protected time for the kids. And so on a Friday - I have been doing this for years - I will not do a work-related thing after 6 o'clock - pretty well come-what-may.
Chris Evans: Regardless?
Keir Starmer: Yeh. Now there are a few exceptions but that's what we do. My son goes kick-boxing and so I often take him there. My daughter goes swimming and cheer-leading now, so I have been to see her in cheer-leading competitions.
Chris Evans: So you're going to ringfence that time?
Keir Starmer: Yeh. And I want to. One, because I am a dad and I love them. They're my pride and joy and I don't want to lose that time. Two, I don't believe in the theory that you are a better decision-maker if you don't allow yourself the space to be a dad and to have fun for your kids. Actually, it helps me. It takes me away from the pressure. It relaxes me. I think actually, it's not only want I want to do as a dad, it is better.
-- transcript ends --
SOURCE


Problem number two: There is also an essential and important faith element to the story.

Keir Starmer has been completely up front about carving out time on Friday evenings to participate in his wife and family's Shabbat dinners. This is something he has repeatedly talked about, for many years, for example in this Jewish Chronicle story of July 2023.


So the Tory attack was not only in bad faith (forgive the pun) but it could also be taken as a slight on Keir Starmer's family's choice of religious practices.

And yet it's not just the official Conservative Twitter account putting the boot in. (Tweet linked below, with screenshot in case they make it go away.) Individual Tory MPs are at it too.

https://x.com/theousherwood/status/1807840068016497132

thejc.com/news/our-famil…

https://x.com/Conservatives/status/1807796490896621680

An example of Tories shaming themselves (two for the price of one if you see who posted it and who retweeted it).

As ever: screenshot in case it goes away.

https://x.com/tom_pridham/status/1807792323163492697

Two futures:

Labour in Government. Tories in Opposition. 5 years of endless culture wars & immigrant-bashing.

Labour in Government, LibDems in Opposition. Tories powerless & voiceless on back benches.

If the Tories come third, it changes everything. Here's why:

1/12 Coming second would let the Tories rebuild as the official Opposition and continue to push their Hate agenda.

But coming third should finish them. It might take time, but they'd be walking dead.

Second place confers substantial benefits:

2/12

🧵 If the Tories come third, it changes everything.

Coming second would allow them to rebuild as the official Opposition.

But third place should finish them. It may take time, but they'd be walking dead.

It would also put Brexit back on the agenda, at last.

Here's why:

1/14 We have a unique opportunity this election cycle.

Mass tactical voting can end the Tory party as a viable political force, and ensure that attention is back on Brexit where it belongs.

Coming second confers a substantial number of benefits:

2/14

1/14 We have a unique opportunity in this election.

Through mass tactical voting, we can end the Tory party as a viable political force and put Brexit back on the agenda as well.

This huge prize can be won by working together. The future of politics depends on you. Here's why: 2/14 If the Tories come third, it changes everything.

Coming second allows them to rebuild as the official Opposition.

But third place should finish them. It may take time, but they'd be walking dead.

We have a unique opportunity at this election, one which will never come again.

With tactical voting, we can finish the Tory party forever as a viable political force.

That huge prize is attainable if we work together.

The future of politics depends on you. Why? Read on... If the Tories come third, that changes everything.

If they come second, they replace Labour as the official Opposition. They can lick their wounds and rebuild.

But if they come third, they're finished. It may take time for them to die, but they're walking dead.

You see...

Live Tweeting Farage on #bbcqt

Watch this thread! "What is it about your party that attracts racists and extremists, whether you want them or not?"

Huge applause.

THREAD: 8 years ago, the UK voted to leave the EU.

Here's a 'Sliding Doors' style look at what we could have won had the vote gone the other way.

It's also a blueprint for the potential benefits of a future Rejoin movement.

Each tweet below covers one aspect of EU membership. 1. Economic Benefits:
- Full, unfettered access to the largest trading bloc in the world
- Significant administrative savings due to absence of customs and other documentation for EU trade
- No additional VAT or duties on goods imported from or exported to the EU
- Participation in EU trade agreements with over 70 non-EU countries
- Frictionless borders enabling just-in-time manufacturing, crucial for automotive, aerospace and other sectors
- Faster delivery times across the EU
- Streamlined international supply chains
- Open access to the EU market for UK fish exports
- Participation in the EU Single Energy Market
- Simplified VAT procedures for cross-border trade
- Financial passporting for City of London firms
- Access to EU structural and regional development funding
- Participation in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)
- Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies for farmers
- Easy access to a willing seasonal agricultural workforce
- Simplified process for recognition of professional qualifications across the EU
- Economies of scale for businesses operating across the EU
- Increased attractiveness for foreign investors (the "UK as gateway to Europe" vision of Margaret Thatcher)
- Protection for foods of geographical origin (e.g., Melton Mowbray pork pies)
- Venture capital funding and startup loans from EU programs
- Products made in the UK can be sold in over 30 countries without extra approval
- Right to offer services all over the EU on the same basis as to UK clients

THREAD: A reminder of some of the benefits of EU membership (not an exhaustive list) that a future Rejoin campaign would be fighting for.

Long thread, out of necessity. Each tweet covers a specific facet of EU membership and how it would impact the UK.

1. Economic Benefits:
- Full unfettered access to the largest trading bloc in the world
- Significant admin savings because there's no need for customs and other documentation when trading with the EU
- Free trade deals with over 70 countries around the world
- Frictionless borders allowing for just-in-time manufacturing
- Faster delivery times across the EU
- Quicker international supply chains
- Participation in the EU Single Energy Market
- Simplified VAT filing for firms selling to EU customers
- Financial passporting for City of London firms
- Access to EU structural and regional development funding
- Participation in the EU emissions trading scheme
- Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies for farmers
- Easy access to a willing seasonal agriculatural workforce
- Simplified process for recognition of professional qualifications across the EU
- Economies of scale for businesses operating across the EU
- Increased attractiveness for foreign investors (the famous "UK as the gateway to Europe" which Margaret Thatcher envisioned). 2. Freedom of Movement:
- Freedom for UK citizens to travel, work, study and retire anywhere in the EU
- Freedom for EU citizens to travel, work, study and retire in the UK
- Upcoming EES and ETIAS systems would not apply
- Use fast EU queues at airports and ports within the EU
- EU-wide roaming at home rates for mobile phones
- Access to home content on streaming services while traveling in the EU
- Driving licenses valid all over the EU
- Multi-year pet passports for easy travel with pets

THREAD: Timeline of a Tory gambling scandal

12 June 2024: "Sunak aide admits placing bet on general election"

Tory candidate Craig Williams (Sunak's former PPS) admitted that he bet £100 on the GE being on 4 July. Gambling Commission investigating.

1/10
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… 13 June 2024: "Tory candidate tells BBC election bet was 'huge error of judgement'"

Craig Williams apologises for his bet. Sunak calls news of the bet "very disappointing".

2/10
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Rishi Sunak's Big D-Day Snub - A Definitive Thread...

Rishi Sunak skipped out on the main D-Day commemorations yesterday to rush home and record an ITN interview that won't even air until Wednesday next week.

1/8
David Cameron ended up in the world leader photos and video footage where Sunak should have been.

2/8