Thread by @D_Raval

Thread on how Swinson and Umunna have made a No Deal more likely by removing one of Johnson’s excuses for not letting a No Deal happen..
1/12

As much we may criticise Johnson, he isn’t dumb and his own political reputation matters mrore to him than anything else. He knows a No Deal would be a catastrophe and he knows that once that carnage becomes clear it will politically destroy him and the Tories.
2/12

Johnson’s strategy from day one as PM as been to prepare for blame shifting. On the one hand he wants to show he would go for a No Deal and ‘do Brexit’ to shore up the Brexit side of the Tory vote. At the same time he needs to politically hedge for the disaster No Deal would be.

Hedge 1 if Johnson lets No Deal happen
The hedge is to blame the EU. He knows the EU can’t compromise on the backstop yet he’s made that a precondition for any talks. So if he goes ahead with No Deal he’ll pitch it as ‘the EUs fault’ for not backing down to his impossible ask.
4

Hedge 1 (cont.)
The second part of this will be to go full attack on May’s government. The carnage of No Deal will also be put on May, ie she and others like Hammond, didn’t take No Deal seriously, didn’t plan for it etc. Johnson will say he did his best to prepare but..
5/12

..it was impossible to make up in a few months for what May didn’t do for two years. That way Johnson plans to sidestep blame for the damage of a No Deal by blaming the EU and May. He will then call a GE on the basis of ‘make me strong..
6/12

..give a majority to deal with the damage and chaos No Deal is causing. Need a full 5 year to deal with this.’ That will Johnson’s pitch for the GE. Essentially ‘Brexit isn’t finished, we need to make it work, I’m blameless for the mess and only I can fix it.
7/12

Hedge 2 if Johnson decides against No Deal
Like May did, Johnson may balk at what disaster No Deal would be. However having very publicly set his stall out on Brexit at any cost including No Deal, he can’t u-turn. If he did it would destroy him. So the hedge would be..
8/12

..to blame Parliament, eg “I wanted to leave on No Deal but they stopped me or sabotaged planning for No Deal etc. That would be his pitch for the GE, eg “Brexit is still unresolved, I want to resolve it, give me a majority to do that etc”.
9/12

He would also use that as an excuse to ask for a delay to No Deal as a GE would meet the EU’s criteria for an extension. He wouldn’t fess up he didn’t want a No Deal but will pitch it as he wanted it but ‘Parliament stopped him’.
10/12

That’s how Swinson and Umunna have made No Deal more likely. By effectively sabotaging a clear route from a VONC to an short interim government headed by Corbyn to halt Brexit for a GE. They’ve made it even more difficult for Parliament to halt a No Deal and..
11/12

..have taken Johnson’s 2nd Hedge off the table, ie he won’t be able to hide behind Parliament and use them as an excuse for halting No Deal. Having lost that, the only place where he has political cover left is the 1st Hedge, ie let No Deal happen and blame the EU and May.
12/12

For easier reading and sharing, this Thread as a blog article link.medium.com/BttUk4WSfZ