David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
UK Director @ecipe Brexit global trade political economy, Perspectives column @BorderlexEditor, Expert adviser @UKTradeBusiness. Music maniac, some sport. DMs.

Aug 18, 2019, 11 tweets

Having read through the details, I am fairly certain the document in the Sunday Times is not old or a worst case scenario. What was published is also not a comprehensive picture of no-deal, but just many of the key issues.

We presume this means to say collaboration "with" the EU. Repugnant use of language about neighbours. And I see very little that is "wrong", what is published is mostly well nuanced

What's not in the document leaked? Agriculture exports (rumours of plans for sheep culls), UK services providers unable to obtain work visas, buying and selling with EU (e.g. parcel changes), change in EU imports from single market to duty free quantities - etc, etc

The state of UK political discourse, where a Government planning document becomes 'scaremongering' when released.

Interesting that Gibraltar apart I have seen no specifics of the leak being denied.

In response to earlier tweet about what's not in yesterday's Yellowhammer leak I am offered also - bank lending to corporates, £ decline, various money market issues, no access to EU law and order / asylum EU systems, VAT, service providers to EU without correct qualifications

Thought - when one is under heavy pressure from the centre to produce output (as we understand is the case right now in Government to understand no-deal impact) the quality will tend to be low. Suspect no-deal planning suffers from this, but of course with no public scrutiny....

Confidence growing that the Yellowhammer leak was not of old documents, but material prepared in the last few weeks. Now you can start to manage risks, but it isn't clear you can do this if you are in denial about them, and try to mislead those who ask

New documents, but all has changed in the last two and a half weeks. Yeah right, because it was all that simple...

How many more different contradictory explanations are we going to get today about the leaked no-deal documents?

Check out also @Sime0nStylites tweets on no-deal Brexit, because he is as utterly unconvinced as I am that Government is in control of this

@Sime0nStylites Right question. Wrong answer, since various members of the Government already have commented. Reasonable to assume most of the details were correct, and yesterday's leak covers some of the Government's base no-deal scenario.

@Sime0nStylites More evidence that the no-deal leak was an accurate view of the latest situation, at least for the areas covered.

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