David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
UK Director @ecipe Brexit global trade political economy, Perspectives column @BorderlexEditor, Expert adviser @UKTradeBusiness. Music maniac, some sport. DMs.

Aug 19, 2019, 12 tweets

What then are we to make of this letter from Boris Johnson to the EU? First up, a welcome reflection of some reality. An actual explanation of the position instead of just slogans. And a more constructive tone on Ireland, I suspect down to Pelosi's comments on a UK-US trade deal

Of the three reasons given, the first two essentially relate to the UK's wish to diverge from the EU, saying it will be anti-democratic if this can't happen. There's some logic to the arguments. The third, or Ireland, is more questionable, but again is probably more US focused

So what then is the proposal. First, to explore alternative arrangements "as far as possible before the end of the transition period". That won't be very far. And then something else to provide "a degree of confidence". The backstop is dead long live the backstop?

To me this part of the letter is most likely drafted by various of those involved with ERG alternative arrangements work, not least given the reference to the existing differences. The problem remains - nobody outside the EU has replaced border infrastructure.

So is this letter a serious offer or not? It is certainly meant to be seen this way, by the US and backbench MPs to name but two. And in leaving the door slightly ajar on a new 'backstop-type' arrangement, it isn't completely out of the question.

Ultimately though the problem never goes away - to avoid all border infrastructure you're going to need a close relationship of one sort or another between the UK (or at least Northern Ireland) and the EU. And the letter still can't recognise this reality.

Final thought - once again it is the UK Government who, having said the EU would fold, are having to change course. The EU will listen, but probably point out red lines and ask for a UK proposal. There won't be one, as to do so will split the Brexiteers. We inch forwards at best.

Peter Foster is not impressed with the letter

A slightly more positive view from @GeorginaEWright

@GeorginaEWright Lots of comments flying around about the letter. Mostly negative. Could be right. But I'd expect the EU to take it seriously, and ask a lot of questions. Like how do you know Parliament would pass a WA? And what exactly do you propose? And then quickly judge practicality.

@GeorginaEWright The one comment I would emphasise again that I don't think people appreciate - just how important a US trade deal is to the entire Brexit project, and how much therefore the Pelosi comments on the GFA / a UK-US FTA meant this letter had to be written now. Was clearly not the plan

@GeorginaEWright Another set of interesting thoughts - but to note the Irish Government have been critical.

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