Thread by @CalibreObscura

@Elizrael Good thread. IMHO, these are the main reasons for oppo losses (Which align mostly with yours)

- Effective Russian targeting of supply/reinforcement columns
- Effective co-ordination between Tiger ground forces, air, and arty
- Increased use of thermal optics/night attacks

@Elizrael I'd also say:

- Weak and entirely opaque Turkish actions
- and of course, oppo exhaustation

However imho Tigers have absolutely suffered and new rebel personnel movements, belated as they have been, may well make this fresh imputus stutter. As would a influx of Kornet

@Elizrael Also, Tigers are not especially skilled from all I hear. They do enjoy unending numbers of co-ordinated air/arty strikes that are rather effective, some training, lots & lots of new munitions that can be used to pummel into dust. Kafr N showed that if off guard, they have issues

@Elizrael Turkey has no will to stop this, or so it seems. Maybe the Tigers crowing over Turkish troops will switch this, but I doubt it.

Best case for oppo is National Army reinforcements in big numbers and attempts to grind Tigers like at Kabana with TIP, who are fighting hard.

@Elizrael However, I think after a pause regime will totally consolidate N. Hama (Having lost some armour from the hardcore HTS still there) then look to advance more. Idlib will certainly be v hard for them and I await Turkey finally realising what the numbers fleeing will be

@Elizrael Who knows? If a Kaf N. happens again maybe we will see a prolonged stutter along with actual Turkish backbone, but I doubt it