At some point, the (apparent, but assumed) limitless VKS PVO-PRO interceptor/SPAAGM capacity will be exposed by the rapidly scaling UA OWA-UAV campaign, and even more so when that campaign moves from a crude "Extremely Low-Medium Low" mix to something more akin to real Hi-Low. From what I'm gathering (admittedly without a real reliable method), small cracks are appearing and widening.

There'll be a time when the Presidential Administration's unreality will be interrupted, and I think whilst that will be a long time, the current trajectory is positive.

Aspects of the #Aleppo Campaign that are proving to be essential, according to local news, open sources, and some of my sources. Drones. Rebels using drones for expansive command and control, continuous monitoring of front lines, much better than SAA

Also using small kamikaze UAV extremely intensely, including blunting at least two 25th Division counter attacks.

Drone dropped nades also massively used.

One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.

Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently. The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.

According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.

They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1771230886970683771

Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.

The US Intel was right. Again.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1765866742704660626

Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity

Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.

Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti.... armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..

I'm going to write a few things here before I go.

This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful. Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?

It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.

Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1595912755759964163

Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc

#Russia: The FSB managed to intercept criminals smuggling materiel from the "SMO Zone" (Luhansk/Donetsk) into #Belgorod.

Some rather serious stuff- F1, RGN/O grenades, RPG-18 AT launchers, RShG-1 and RPO-A thermobaric launchers, and 9M113 Konkurs ATGM. Two men were arrested.

According to the FSB, they recovered 14 ATGM, 67 launchers, 77 grenades & fuses, 66 TNT blocks "weighing from 200g to 3kg" and more than 15 thousand cartridges of various calibres.

If accurate, this major hardware that would be worth millions on the black market for large gangs.

#Syria: ISIS forces in Syria also released a quantity of bay'ah picss for the new Caliph. I'm not sure where this cell is, thinking perhaps rural NES. M16A4, AK variants (AKM, T56, Including AKS-74U, ofc), PK (W/ MG-1M barrel), RPG-7 with PG-7VM.

Note high proportion of minors.





A Badia cell. This is a "proper" cell, with all fully grown men. M16A4 with ATN Thermal optics, SVD Dragunov, AKM and AK-74(M) variants (With PK-01VS), PG-7VL.

These guys have the traditional cell arrangement and look healthy. Also, a foreigner🤌

#Iraq: The third nay'ah to the new caliph of IS, from IS in Iraq: another considerable photoset. Precise areas (Diyala, Kirkuk, etc) are not revealed, though I have suspicions.

Standard mix of AK variants, M4 Carbine, M16A2/A4, and uncommonly seen Vz. 58 V here. A rural cell. Another very rural group, I suspect from #Kirkuk. Again no RPG but a collection of common (AK/M16) rifles, plus locally procured AR-15, captured (or sold) ex Iraqi Army Remington R4 and ex Federal Police VHS-D2 bullpups.

Oh, and an AKS-74U. High status cell?

#DRC: #ISIS released a video covering the activities/development of the groups' Congo Branch (of IS Central Africa). Will note a few interesting weapons and other aspects here.

Please note: much of the footage was previously seen- so not loads to note. Curious W85 action though. - Rare Command Arms XRS47 (...style) rail system with a commander.
- Lots of hip fired HMG action, seems to be usually W85 captured from the Army locally. Quite ineffective, but I guess it gets through the jungle foliage...
- Drone use- this time after (& during...?) an assault.

Incredible how "OSINT" went incredibly cringe so fast. Anyone with "OSINT" in their bio or username is suspect, and has been for at least two years.

A few interesting things spotted in the Taliban parade in #Bagram today.

1st of all, Scuds! Several 9P117 TEL complete with the 8K14 liquid-fuelled missiles of the 9K72 Elbrus ballistic missile system, better known to us as the SS-1C Scud-B. These are ancient & non-functional. Some more sensible indirect fire assets- several 9P140 launcher vehicles of the BM-27 220mm MRL system. Much like the Scud-B, ancient, and I doubt there is any rockets to be found that could work.

However, the 122mm Grad MRL and 122mm D-30 howitzers could be feasible.

Whoever is writing this did what they always do, which is fall too far into the LARP & forget that not just his intended audience is reading his fan fiction.

I have 0 idea who is running this but be very careful w/ accounts like this, particularly when it comes to asking for $$$

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1520495256076271624

Whenever something seems like a too-ideal story, it is. If someone uses old pics & posts them as new (he does), they are suspicious. If someone with a brand new account asks for money, be even more suspicious. When someone posts "their pics" at 1280x720.. you get the message.

#Afghanistan: IS-K released a massive photo set (30 images) of various cells across the country pledging allegiance to the new caliph. I count ~15 separate cells.

We see RPK, Type 56, SW9VE, AKMS, etc. Four more cells, Type 56-1, AK variants, AKK, M16, SW9VE, Glock 17, etc.

#Syria: ISIS released another large photoset of Bay'ah to the new Caliph from Syria. Areas are not specifically disclosed but appear to be from NES (SDF Areas), Badia (Regime Areas), Daraa & maybe wider.

Quite standardised; here with AKS-74U, PK(M), AKM(S), RPG/OG-7V, G19

1/ A small covert cell, look to be urban; perhaps Daraa or NES. Note PBIED, multiple AKS-74U, and Glock 19 Gen3 (With full auto selector switch) as usual.

2/

#Iran: One doesn't usually cover state groups, but the #IRGC released video of winter training with snowmobiles, just like their friends in Hezbollah.

Interesting kit seen; includes S-5.56 ARs, Upgraded RPD, recent/uncommon Ashtar sniper rifle & snowmobile-mounted PKM-T80 MG. Also worth a note here that they can be seen with both generations of Rayan Roshd RU03 red dot optics and assorted lights/lasers/etc, which are usually of Chinese/Iranian (rebranded) origin.

Quite curious stuff.

#Lebanon: A new video from #Hezbollah has been released, showing fighters in the snow with PKM, AK-74, AK-74M, MP-446 Viking, HS-9, etc.

Certainly as showy as ever, snowmobiles, skis, confidence drills, etc. Some more; handguns, another AK-74, amusingly w/ Israeli accessories (FAB Defense PDC rail, UAS-AK stock...) Otherwise CompM4s RDS, etc.

Pretty kitted, but all of this is available from Iraqi/Syrian markets. Style is a pretty standard Hezb merger of RuOF and MENA showoff stuff.

#Nigeria: ISWA released a video, dealing with indoctrination and training of young fighters (many child soldiers); I will detail key elements (TTPs/Materiel/Themes) etc

This video is remarkable from the standpoint of a global terrorist organisation attempting to build a state. Release covers various day-to-day activities of young fighters; with ages from ~12 to 18+. This includes prayers, lessons, etc; this is remarkably similar to ISWA releases from the days of the physical caliphate of IS-Central. Once again, IS is trying to form the next generation.

#Idlib: Various images of new Tavhid Va Jihod fighters training/on ribat recently. An interesting variety of materiel seen; PG-7VT, PG-7VM, various AKM/PK(M) variants, HTS-made al Buraq APC///

1/ ... more images include a Metis-M1 ATGM team, AM-50 Sayyad pattern anti-materiel rifle, ZPU-2/dual KPV 14.5mm HMG mount technical and locally modified Mosin-Nagant rifle

2/