Thread by @DavidHenigUK

😀in response to the prorogue parliament today rumours

If true, is this terribly clever? Rebels meet at Chruch House during prorogue creating regular media story, then amendment to Queens Speech creates chance to vote against the Government without having to no-confidence... then convention says Gov falls...?

Apparently the convention on Queens Speech amendment may no longer hold. But the broader point does. The Government, having failed to persuade Labour to table a no-confidence vote in Sept so an election could be called for Nov 1, just called its own no-confidence vote in October.

So now to see whether no-deal opponents hold good with their promise to keep meeting as an alternative Parliament, perhaps taking evidence of no-deal impacts...? Also, far from my area, can Parliament overturn the prorogue decision in September?

This story will develop. So many impacts - from an EU negotiating point of view Johnson can now not say he has a majority for a deal. So no-deal goes up in probability. From a UK precedent point of view, a clear hit to parliamentary sovereignty.

Also this, would there now be any time to pass a Withdrawal Agreement? Ultimately though start counting the numbers for a Vote of No Confidence around Oct 21.

Will keep adding some of the bets comments in response to today's prorogue / Queens speech news

This. Always this. The numbers. And also whether MPs opposed continue to meet while Parliament is not sitting.

Well. (sorry @davidallengreen). New theory, prorogation to spark the early election Number 10 actually wanted?

@davidallengreen My twitter feed....

@davidallengreen A key question for the EU negotiations is this - is the EU more likely to make concessions to avoid no-deal, or to get a deal through Parliament? Serious EU watchers think the latter, making today's announcement a move towards no-deal

@davidallengreen "Member States are watching what Parliament does with great interest and it is only by showing unity and resolve that we stand a chance of securing a new deal that can be passed by Parliament". True. Impossible to do if not sitting. Blatantly contradictory

@davidallengreen MPs who don't want no-deal have to home in on this point - he is saying one thing and doing something completely different. And there's no realistic chance of a deal on the basis of what he is doing.

@davidallengreen Questionable as to whether this is Government's plan

@davidallengreen Thinking - wouldn't the easiest thing be for Parliament now to pass an emergency bill next week to continue sitting until the Queens Speech? Bound to pass you would think, and avoid the VONC trap. (how about extra 3 weeks and give Parliament control?)

@davidallengreen Basically Parliamentary opponents of no-deal need to sidestep this. Really quite feasible. Every chance today's Government plan soon looks like one of Baldrick's cunning plans...

@davidallengreen Sorry / not sorry, but the reactions keep coming...

@davidallengreen A plan... from @GeorgePeretzQC

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC They might want to give this impression, but if this is really the strategy they are naive about the EU and prepared to take on their own party. Doesn't seem likely. More likely a move towards no-deal and an election soon after.

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC Like @lewis_goodall never saw a difference between the two sides in their willingness to define themselves as noble and the other as vandals. But this misses what's been the crucial issue for two years - the Government does not have a majority

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall The theory behind today's announcement. Like several others of recent weeks doesn't feel as clever as it is clearly meant to be.

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall Brilliant short thread by @Sime0nStylites - the worst thing about this prorogue decision is that provokes further division rather than trying to unite

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Turns out Government may actually not be able to fully prorogue through early October thanks to an earlier Grieve amendment...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites So if I'm not mistaken the Government has made an announcement today about proroguing Parliament which they can't fully deliver due to the previous Grieve amendment, but have galvanised the anti no-deal crowd in doing so. Garvan may be right here...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites And meanwhile this...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites There's some debate on whether Parliament needs to return on 9 October or that's covered by the timetable announced... we'll see. More broadly today's announcement seems to have galvanised anti no-deal MPs and ensured all attention returns to Brexit, not sure that was the plan

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites This as well... I think there will be a lot of mumbling around Number 10 today, are you sure Cummings is a master strategist?

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Meanwhile, red herring alert. Since we're promised a different Withdrawal Agreement if one returns at all this would not actually be relevant. There are circumstances this would be relevant, but hard to see them. And still why such a long delay?

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Similarly the theory that Johnson is serious about negotiations, which some in EU still hope, doesn't really hold. Double-crossing the very people cheering his announcement today to get the votes of those denouncing him doesn't feel credible

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites As expected, not all in Government completely convinced...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Not really an anti-democratic coup. More the actions of a Government without a majority on the key issue of the day taking advantage of the space given in our constitution to usually majority Governments. Sign of weakness Gov have to run from MPs, and it can still be outvoted.

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites A reminder that the Government's decision to prorogue affects more than Brexit (it also takes away the Trade Bill, Agriculture Bill among others)

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Apparently Parliament can in theory at least overturn the decision to prorogue. So emergency debate granted by speaker given his role, and vote to overturn? But then does that need to be turned into law, which is more difficult...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Am finding the reaction to today's announcement from elsewhere to be interesting - with less emotional investment they are focusing squarely on the democratic implications, and it doesn't look good for the UK

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites And I know we're focused on the UK, but meanwhile the Irish have been making clear, again, that the backstop is not being taken out of a UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement. Argument Parliament being prorogued to allow Johnson to make a deal utterly unconvincing

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Lots of noise but I wonder whether the only thing that has really changed today is that opponents of no-deal are angrier. There will still be a legislative attempt to prevent it, but ultimately it may all depend on enough anti no-deal MPs agreeing on a new PM around Oct 20...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Ancient history this letter of course, but the point made within about the bills that fall, and the secondary legislation that doesn't happen. How can we be assured that all is on track when Parliament will only sit a handful of days at the end of October?

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites From the optimistic branch of the Conservative Party...

@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Ok, drawing this thread on what happened to a close, and await the more sober takes on what it means and what happens next. My own starter on that, borrowing from @Sime0nStylites, it has been another divisive day in UK politics, and that is dangerous. /end (for now)