Thread by @jonworth

So with these rumours Johnson will call an election swirling... let's revisit how an election timetable could play out with the #Brexit timetable

First, UK elections happen on Thursdays

That gives you:
Thu 17 Oct
Thu 24 Oct
Thu 31 Oct (Brexit Day!)
Thu 7 Nov
Thu 14 Nov

Second, for an election to happen under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, 2/3 of MPs will have to vote to trigger it

You do not want No Deal Brexit happening mid-campaign, so one of two things has to happen:
- election either 17 or 24 Oct
- request an Article 50 Extension from EU

Third, Electoral Registration & Administration Act 2013 sets 25 working days minimum between election being called and the election happening - see:
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…

Call by 4 Sep for 17 Oct or 11 Sep for 24 Oct (assuming day of vote, and polling day don't count in 25)

In practice: if an early General Election were to be called, it would have to be on 24 October IF there were no extension of Article 50

If Johnson and Cummings were to try to play it nasty and go for 31 October or a November date, the opposition should not give Johnson the 2/3 majority he needs to call the election

The *problem* however then comes on the EU side with all of this

There is a European Council scheduled for 17-18 October, i.e. before a 24 Oct election, and then there's just a week after 24 Oct until exit day 31 October

All of this would mean there is no opportunity to renegotiate *anything* with the EU between now and 31 October if Johnson did go ahead and call an early election

Johnson has also, repeatedly and absurdly, keep repeating that Brexit will be done by 31 October

That means I cannot see any way the Conservatives could go into an election with any policy other than advocating No Deal as their Brexit solution - because in practice there is no way to get to anything else without an Article 50 extension

Also what the hell then happens if panic about the consequences of No Deal were to break out during an election campaign?

"Hey go and vote Tory today! If you can leave your space queuing for a lettuce or to fill your car with petrol!" Yippee!

Also where does that then leave pro-Brexit, but anti-No Deal Tories? They have to split off? Or just stomach the Brexit Party-isation of the Tories?

Or Johnson performs a drastic U-Turn and asks the EU for more time, blaming MPs for doing that?

So, in short, there are traps and problems all over the place for Johnson here.

/ends

And yes, I *know* elections do not legally have to take place on Thursdays, which perhaps gives Johnson a little more wriggle room. But the logic of this thread applies nevertheless.