Robert Dohner，Senior Fellow of Atlantic Council, shared his opinions on huge costs from US-China economic disengagement in #Bundsummit
Disruption of supply chains – adjustment and operating costs; uncertainty that discourages investment – much larger macro effect; and very large potential costs of technological decoupling/ bifurcation were all mentioned.
US shift toward administrative and judicial measures : 1. CFIUS (investment screening) and ECRA (export control) 2. Use of US sanctions, including the Entities List 3. Justice Department prosecutions
Factors driving the US policy shift: 1.Withdrawal from multilateralism and free trade agreements 2. Concerns about Chinese industrial policy – subsidies and technological acquisition activities 3. Increasing overlap between economic technology and national security technology
Internal pressures will build for US to return to trade agreements, global participation as losses mount from being on the outside, according to Robert.
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