China Finance 40 Forum (CF40) Profile picture
China's leading think tank in finance and macroeconomics - Independence. Insight. Influence.
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Jan 14 6 tweets 2 min read
CF40 member ZHONG Wei points out that to realize a steady operation of China’s economy in 2022, we need to understand what it means to be “steady” from different frames of reference and policy perspectives.
Read more at:… 1/6 1. Maintain the long-term trend of growth since the reform and opening up. Despite the shift from high speed growth to high quality growth, it may be necessary to maintain a growth rate of no less than 4% or slow down the pace to make it manageable. 2/6
Jan 13 5 tweets 1 min read
Prof Huang Yiping, CF40 Academic Committee Chairman, stressed recently that China should continue to press ahead with market-oriented financial reform. 1/5 “Let the market play a bigger role in the resource allocation of the financial system, instead of relying on government intervention,” he said.

Specifically, he said China needs to move forward at two fronts: financial innovation and financial supervision. 2/5
Jan 12 8 tweets 2 min read
While still in the early stage of development, #DeFi could play an important role in the future financial system as the blockchain becomes more expansive and traditional assets, more tokenized. 1/8 Given that the main challenges hindering the development of DeFi are similar to those facing the traditional financial system, regulation of it could draw on some of the existing rules, CF40 says in a recent article:…

Nov 5, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Current macro policies should avoid hard landing in the property market while boost the overall economic vitality,pointed out by Zhang Bin, Zhu He and Zhong Yi at CF40 in the working paper How to Prevent the Risk of Hard Landing in the Real Estate Market.1/6 The paper argues China’s #economy still faces great downward pressure in the short term. In particular,risk of hard landing in the #housing market should be prevented. Its threat to financial system is limited,but it will take a heavy toll on the real economy.2/6
Nov 4, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
In a recent research on Disclosure Standards for Sustainability Information led by CF40 Executive Council member Tu Guangshao, several recommendations for improving the #sustainability #disclosure framework of corporates (“the company” below) in China were made: 1. Sustainability governance

1) Disclosing the company’s structure for sustainable development governance.

2) Disclosing the responsibilities of management in terms of assessing and managing the risks and opportunities related to sustainable development.
Sep 29, 2021 12 tweets 2 min read
The pursuit of common prosperity is a dynamic, long-term process that spans across generations, says Zeng Zheng, a CF40 Young Economist. It requires scientific planning, steady progress and sustained momentum. 1/12 In this process, it’s crucial to understand the relationship between government functions and market forces and their coordination in 3 dimensions. 2/12
Sep 28, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
How is China’s recent export performance? #PMI for new export orders has been declining since May, but total #exports have maintained a fast growth, especially in the last two months, setting new record highs for the same period. Such divergence could be confusing. 1/5 In a recent article, CF40 research associate and deputy director of the Research Department ZHU He says China’s surprisingly strong #exports after July come more from increased cost than demand. 2/5…
Sep 27, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Regulatory measures targeting China's education, health care, and Internet sectors have been rolled out in rapid succession, which are thought to be part of China’s drive towards common prosperity. 1/6 In a recent report, CF40 Youth Economist Forum member XIONG Yuan and Guosheng Securities Analyst YANG Tao analyze the meanings, realizations and goals of common prosperity, along with its implications for the economy and industries. 2/6
May 20, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
Sudden turns in macroeconomic policies before Q3, 2021 would be inadvisable, says Zhu He, CF40 Research Fellow. It’s not yet time for macroeconomic policies to change direction, not to mention the speed of the turn, he says. 1/8… Recent data suggest a slowdown in China’s recovery, with the output gap closing at a slower pace. It remains uncertain whether #export and real estate #investment can sustain momentum in the next two quarters. 2/8
May 19, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
Dr. Zhang Bin at CASS suggests to give full play to the flexibility of the #RMB exchange rate as a buffer for China’s macroeconomic stability: 1/6… Whether it is to deal with the difference in relative demand changes at home and abroad, or to handle the impact of international capital flows, maintaining a flexible RMB exchange rate would be a major coping strategy. 2/6
May 18, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
Taking stock of China’s economic performance in April, CF40 research department calls for stronger macroeconomic policy supports as consumer spending falls short of expectation while export alone can't sustain the sound operation of the entire economy: 1/8… To be specific, real estate investment has remained quite resilient, but is facing greater downward pressure with tighter regulations and higher interest rates; 2/8
May 17, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
Peering into the near future of the Chinese #economy, Dr. Zhang Bin thinks there will be rebound in #consumption and slowdown of #investment: 1/6… Household consumption in #China remains significantly lower than the pre-Covid level, with great potential for recovery. As Covid’s impact lingers, service consumption growth in China remains significantly lower than its pre-pandemic levels. 2/6
Apr 9, 2021 6 tweets 1 min read
Fang Xinghai, CSRC Vice Chairman, proposed 4 policy suggestions on promoting comprehensive institutional opening-up of China’s capital market at the 2nd Bund Summit: 1/6… 1. Continue to open up the capital market and products. Introduce more channels and models for foreign investors to participate, address their concerns, increase the weight of A-shares in international indices,...2/6
Apr 8, 2021 8 tweets 2 min read
Financial development in China is ushering in a historical period of opportunities, said Fan Yifei, Deputy Governor of the PBOC, at the 2nd Bund Summit: 1/8…

He explained in the following 4 perspectives: 1. Dual circulation calls for high-quality financial development. The key to a smooth domestic economic cycle is a smooth supply-demand circulation and the release of internal forces. 2/8
Apr 7, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
To improve the public governance of #data in a digital society, China needs to intensify efforts in the following aspects: 1. Provide legislative support for the classified management of data, clarify data ownership and using rights, and stipulate legal responsibilities in the use and transaction of data, or even establish a special supervisory department or mechanism;
Jan 21, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
China will adhere to the supply-side structural reform while paying attention to #demand management, addressing the obstacles to economic circulation and improving weak links. What are and how to address the major obstacles to the management of domestic demand? How should China step up policy efforts to further boost #consumption?
Jan 20, 2021 6 tweets 1 min read
In 2020, China proposed the new development pattern based on “#dual_circulation” with domestic and international markets reinforcing each other. According to Zhao Changwen, such a pattern will need an innovation-friendly financial system:… 1/6 First, an innovation-friendly financial system should be able to help the country seize the opportunities brought by the new round of technological revolution or industrial revolution. 2/6
Jan 19, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
China is halting the rise in CO2 emissions before 2030 and going carbon neutral before 2060. It's not the only country to declare the target within the time frame, but it's the most important country to do so, said Jin Liqun, @AIIB_Official president, at the 2nd Bund Summit. 1/6 China's noble ambition is commendable, but the challenge is daunting. The government will have to work with the private sector to mobilize resources to finance renewable energy. 2/6
Jan 18, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
In a recent article, @SunMingchun discussed the economic outlook of Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and the US in 2021:… #economics 1/5 The US economy is expected to recover from a low position but will hardly resume to the pre-pandemic level in 2019. The spread of the virus remains to be the biggest obstacle to the economic recovery in the US. 2/5
Jan 12, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
In a recent article, @SunMingchun discussed the economic outlook of Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and the US in 2021:… #economics 1/5 The US economy is expected to recover from a low position but may hardly resume to the pre-pandemic level in 2019. The spread of the virus remains to be the biggest obstacle to the economic recovery in the US. 2/5
Jan 11, 2021 7 tweets 1 min read
According to CF40 Nonresident Senior Fellow and former CSRC Chairman Xiao Gang, China will face three major changes in its domestic and international environment that have important implications for its economic and financial development during the 14th Five-Year Plan. 1/7 1. Its demographic dividend and the advantage of low labor cost are diminishing;
2. It no longer enjoys the “latecomer’s advantage”;
3. Its relatively favorable external environment is undergoing profound changes. 2/7