Thread by @eatcookwrite

Do yourself a favor and plan your meal with the time-sensitive utility of different leftovers in mind.

fafdl.org/blog/2015/11/2…

Let's look at the math:
18 diners, 10 dishes, projecting 1.5 servings of each dish = 270 servings for 18 people or 15 servings person. 27 individual portions of each dish. A formula for waste.

Not All Leftovers Are Created Equal, Plan Accordingly:
The costs of running out versus having too much are asymmetrical, but not consistent across dishes.

The value of various dishes as leftovers is not consistent across dishes. There are some dishes that we want leftovers, therefore leftovers do not become waste, but this doesn’t hold true for all dishes.

1. The default assumption that it is better to have too much than too little, is typically applied equally across all dishes. It shouldn’t be.

While running out of turkey would be unforgivable, running out of cranberry sauce before everyone has gotten seconds is probably OK. While people might freak out if you didn’t have cranberry sauce on the table, no one will really care if you run out.

2. There are some dishes that you can safely assume will not be eaten by everyone, thus not only did we not need 27 portions of green bean casserole for 18 people, we probably didn’t even need 18. 12 would have probably sufficed.

3. Not all leftovers are created equal. The value of four ounces of turkey on the Sunday after Thanksgiving is nearly equal to the value of those four ounces on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the value of four ounces of roasted Brussels sprouts on Sunday has cratered since Thursday.

Production planning needs to take into account future market value of each dish and price that in.

The cost of overshooting production of Brussels sprouts is then quite high, while the cost of overshooting production of turkey is quite low ...

... because while the sprouts will take up room in the fridge and then get thrown out sometime next week, the extra turkey is going to wind up in open-faced turkey sandwiches on Sunday.

4. Planning is complicated by the fact that many side dishes are brought by guests. The host isn’t in control of their guesstimates.

This can be somewhat addressed by taking charge of essentials – which is standard anyways, and then asking guests to bring enough for two thirds the number of people you are expecting –

– as a rule of thumb, obviously depending on the dish you can make estimates of what is needed based on the considerations above. They will almost certainly bring one and half servings for two-thirds of your guests, which sounds about right.

5. The cost of running out of pie is very high. The costs of having too much pie are vanishingly low. Everyone will have pie. Pie is great the next day. And the day after that. Leftover pie is great. You can never have too much pie.

Whoops.

It was obviously a major social media strategy error not to include #Thanksgiving or #Leftovers to tag this tweetstorm.