Thread by @FPL_Gents

#FPL Captaincy has been hard this year. I’m scoring 12.53 Captain points on average per gameweek this season. It's under my target but still decent. Here is my breakdown of Captaincy numbers for my 4 players from my squad that I’m interested in captaining #GW16

Shout out to @DhillonAjit @YogiFPL @BumblebeeFpl who have asked me about my opinion this gameweek.
Here are my percentages of likelihood for at least one return:

🏆Mané: 62.9
🥈Vardy: 59.7
🥉KDB: 55.8
4⃣Tammy: 41

The rest of the thread explains how these numbers were reached.

Let's go through a couple of interesting metrics.

1) One of the metrics I consider is actually whoscored's prediction of how the game will end in exact goals for both teams. I don't know how they come to their conclusion but they have been very accurate...

..When they think a team will score 3+ goals this season, the player I've looked at in that team has scored a return in 71% of the games. Liverpool is the only team that is projected to score over 2 goals this gw.

2) Second metric I care a lot about is: Form last 3 on the road or at home depending on the type of game that is coming up.

🏆Vardy: 12.67
🥈Mané: 7.67
🥉KDB: 6.33
4⃣Abraham: 5

Vardy's 20 pointer skewes his number and it was 10-men. But I like to work with numbers...

..And I have found that when a player has over 8points in this metric it is 85% likely that he will return in the following game! When a player has scored between 7 and 8 like Mané has there has been a return in 69% of the times.

I calculate a lot of other metrics as well for the final score. But I don't want to make it too complicated so I'll end it there. Hope this has given you some insight into how I like to work with stats to choose my captain more successfully.