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Most recents (24)

The Review: GW 5 - A thread

Greetings all, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. Presented below is an overview of my statistical analysis of the Premier League action in GW 5: #FPL
1) No forward has had as many big chances come his way as Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham over the past two gameweeks. The Chelsea forward has 5 big chances to his credit during this spell, which is more than double the amount any notable forward has managed to record – barring...
...the exception of Aguero and Wilson. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Abraham has the highest/best xGi (expected goal involvement) out of all forwards to have started the previous two games as well...
Read 26 tweets
1/ Okay, this is going to be controversial, but in #FPL:

*There is no such thing as form*

Hopefully I can convince you with data, this is going to be a (very) long thread
2/ Throughout the #FPLCommunity the key discussion from week-to-week is which players to transfer in and out. To do that we usually look at both player fixture and form.

Whilst fixture difficulty is not too hard to estimate, trying to quantify form is a lot harder.
3/ The problem comes from Apophenia. The tendency to perceive connections and meaning between unrelated things. This is also commonly thought of as the "Gambler's fallacy" (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%2…)
Read 26 tweets
#FPL is a game of decisions.

How much time do we spend thinking about the quality of those decisions?

Here's a {thread} taking a look at some of the factors at play.

#FPLCommunity #FantasyPL #SkyFF #PremierLeague #epl

1/24
Identifying the problem

This might be under-performing players, fixture swings, inflexible team structure or a host of other common issues. The first question is likely to be 'Is this actually a problem at all?' It's often the case in FPL (& fantasy games generally)...

2/24
...that we don't have enough data to be sure. Simply put, the sample size is too small to draw conclusions. We often feel like we have to make moves to keep up with the pack. Classic FOMO. As a result we end up over-managing our teams & wasting transfers.

3/24
Read 24 tweets
PLAYER THREAD- A look ahead!

Following on from @fplschool and their in depth thread of every team’s fixtures, I’m looking at every team’s most interesting players to target.

Feel free to post opinions, retweets and likes are always appreciated 😁
PLAYER THREAD- Arsenal

Player- Maitland-Niles

Fixtures- wat, AVL, mnu, BOU

Arsenal’s second highest scoring player (albeit mostly in one game). Has potential to offer attacking and defensive returns. 0.64xA is pretty tasty 👌🏻
PLAYER THREAD- Aston Villa

Player- Wesley Moraes

Fixtures- WHU, ars, BUR,nor

The focal point of Villa’s attack and with fairly kind fixtures to provide attacking returns. 0.70xG isn’t too shabby and we should expect returns 👌🏻
Read 23 tweets
The Review: GW 4 - A thread

Hello everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. With Premier League football coming to a standstill over the international break, it's time to reflect on the key numbers of the first month of Premier League action: #FPL
1) Nicolas Pepe has positionally been Arsenal’s most advanced player in both the games he has started so far. With two big chances created, five shots inside the box in that period and keeping in mind that they were against tough opposition...
...in Liverpool and Spurs, he has the potential to be FPL dynamite with better fixtures to follow.
Read 24 tweets
MythBusters: Raheem Sterling Edition [#FPL THREAD]

We'll cross-examine a few commonly held myths regarding Raheem Sterling and determine if they are true or false.

Oh, and GIF's. Lots and lots of GIF's.
MYTH #1: "Sterling is a worse FPL options when on the pitch with Aguero."

CONCLUSION: False!

I investigated this earlier but the quick summary is that Sterling nearly doubles his chances of an assist or goal when playing with Aguero. Read more👇
MYTH #2: Sterling never hauls when Aguero does.

CONCLUSION: False!

Since the beginning of the 18/19 season Aguero scored in 19 games when playing with Sterling. Sterling had 10 goals and 5 assists in those games, 4 of which were assists to Aguero.
Read 12 tweets
Gameweeks 1 through 4 observations & takeaways. A thread. 👍🏼 #FPL
Ederson (£6.1m) is responsible for preventing the highest number of expected goals conceded (at 2.9) of all GK’s. #FPL
Aston Villa’s Elmohamdy (£4.5m) is joint 8th best of all defenders regarding creating chances, with five in just 184 minutes of game-time. #FPL
Read 12 tweets
🧠 GW4 - In Depth Review 〽️

Following the GW4 in Numbers snapshot I’ve put together a more detailed thread covering ALL 10 games.

It’s a BIG ONE so buckle up!

@FPL_Dave @BTD_FPL @ArrowFPL @BlinderFPL @FPLGoat7 @TBC_FPL @Techie_FPL @FlapjackFpl
😇 Southampton 1 - 1 Man Utd 👿

Possession: 41.5% vs 58.5%
Shots: 10 vs 21
Shots on Target: 2 vs 8
xG: 0.86 vs 1.56
xGC: 1.56 vs 0.86

* A wasteful Man Utd yet again paid for missed opportunities as they were pegged back to a 1-1 draw by a well drilled Southampton side who ..
played much of the game with 10 men after Danso collected his second yellow of the game
* Daniel James scored his 3rd goal of the season and it was a real thunderbolt by the £15m man. The Welshman was United’s biggest threat with a number of powerful attempts (5) on target (3)
Read 72 tweets
Using Player-Level Stats to Predict Goals - a {THREAD}

As #FPL managers, we are interested in predicting which players are going to score goals.
Whilst the particular stats we choose to use are largely a matter of taste, this thread explores which are the most predictive.

1/n
Advanced football stats (chiefly Expected Goals, xG) are never far from being a hot topic, not least in our FPL Community.
I aim to take an objective look at which of the commonly-used stats best predict future goals, much in the style of my xA study.

2/n
This involves splitting last season into two halves & observing how well individual metrics from the 1st half (H1):

1. Describe goal rates in H1
2. Predict themselves in H2
3. Predict goal rates in H2

by looking at the strength of the relationship & the variance explained.

3/n
Read 12 tweets
The Review: GW 3 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. Here I am penning my thoughts on how the Premier League drama in GW 3 unfolded: #FPL
1) Salah and Sterling sit top of the charts for big chances of all players in the league over the first 3 games, reaffirming their status as modern day FPL royalty. Hence, it comes as no surprise that the pair of them also have the best xGi (expected goal involvement) for...
...players to have started each of the 3 games so far. The icing on the cake is that with both of them categorized as midfielders, they get extra points per goal and clean sheet and hence in my opinion, are the go-to captain choices in the game.
Read 23 tweets
Massive #FPL THREAD

GW 3 summary:

Since my last thread went down so well I decided to write one about my detailed thoughts about all the games from gw 3 from an FPL perspective. Could very possibly be doing these after every gameweek so feel free to RT if you would like that.
AVL - EVE

The first game of the gameweek was between two sides who have been struggling a bit to start the season. Everton have struggled offensively and Aston Villa still had 0 points going in to this game. I was impressed by how Villa played though. Even though they didn’t...
have much possession they still looked quite dangerous with Wesley (6.0) getting his first goal of the campaign against an Everton team who has kept 2 clean sheet already. Everton looked sluggish and Andre Gomes (5.4) could have had the worst game out of every player this...
Read 36 tweets
A thread on some important takeaways for FPL managers after GW1. Having rolled the scanner on the happenings of the football played over the weekend, here are 8 interesting points I came across in my findings which may be of note to FPL managers: #FPL
1) Montoya had the highest number of touches in the final third of all Brighton players in the game against Watford. However, because of his advanced average position and his tendency to play riskier passes in the final third, he only managed a pass accuracy of 68%, which is...
...why he had the worst minutes per baseline bps ratio of all Brighton defenders. This is similar to what we experienced with Doherty last season, who would hardly get any bps for a CS if not supplemented with his attacking returns.
Read 14 tweets
🍒AFCB #FPL FAQs🍒

I’ve seen a lot of people asking the same questions on twitter in relation to:

1) who will start in goal for #Afcb?
2) who will start LB?
3) who replaces Brooks?

So thought I’d put a little thread together to help answer those questions👇
1)Who will start in goal?

We have 4 GK options:

▫️Begovic - isn’t trusted & rumoured to have fallen out with EH
▫️Boruc -veteran GK, signed a 1 yr deal to bolster our options
▫️Travers -came in at the end of last yr, did well
▫️Ramsdale -not yet on fpl & just returned from loan
...cont.

I could run through pre-season minutes, CS, etc but it really makes no difference. Nobody knows who will start, I’m not even sure EH is 💯 yet and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few of them given chances this season. Personally, I’d like Ramsdale.

📝My verdict: avoid
Read 12 tweets
5 (UN)CONVENTIONAL TIPS TO KICKSTART #FPL SEASON 2019/20 - thread

Just what nobody asked for, another thread on tips before the start of the season, huh? Well, take it less as a tips post and more as a I-need-to-remind-myself-where-I-usually-f***-up kind of post. 😜 (Post #1)
For the next 5 days, I will be posting one tip every day that helps me steer away from trouble (for the most part). I have these 5 on repeat. Otherwise, the season will end up in tears before it even starts. So, here it goes - tip #1. (Post #2)
TIP #1

START STRONG.

I know, what a stupid thing to say, right? But hear me out. It's so hard to claw your way back after a poor start to the season, isn't it? We've all been there - thinking we are smarter than everyone else & trying to outsmart everyone. (1/3)
Read 11 tweets
Less than two weeks till the new #FPL season starts and so far 1.82 million players have signed up. Last year 4.56 million players had registered by GW1 so unless there’s a flurry of excitement around the Community Shield, participation in the game may have peaked.
That’s obviously good news for those that are in. Except that the winner will probably already have been tinkering for weeks. Last year the winner Adam Levy was among the first 2% of players to register. And all but 7 of the top 50 in @FFScout Hall of Fame were in the first 10%.
So apart from a summer of preparation, what other attributes is this year’s winner likely to possess? Three things...
Read 7 tweets
Using points per minute against the bottom 14 and the top 6 home and away, and average minutes played (when not injured/suspended), I've projected some premium players' points for the first 5 GWs 👇👇

[THREAD]

❤/RTs and all that good shit is appreciated 😁

#FPL #FPLCommunity
DISCLAIMER:

Don't base decisions on this. Its last year's data, and things won't stay the same. At best it just gives a loose approximation

Also PPmins isn't the best metric, as it reflects unfairly well on sub apps, but it's what I've got so 🤷‍♂️ 😂

Enjoy 😅
🇦🇷 Aguero 🇦🇷

💷 £12m

HOME VS BOTTOM 14 - 7.84PPG
HOME VS TOP 6 - 10.38 😱
AWAY VS BOTTOM 14 - 4.57
AWAY VS TOP 6 - 1.73 🤢

First 5GW projection: 32 pts
Points per game: 6.4 pts
Value: 2.66 pts per million

#FPL #FPLCommunity
Read 12 tweets
❓IS YOUR TEAM FLEXIBLE❓

One of the first questions I ask myself when looking at a new draft or a RMT thread.
It’s a critical part of building a team but isn’t often considered by FPL managers.

So here’s a quick thread with Q’s you can ask when analysing your own team.

#FPL
Can I transfer in X Premium Player❓

If getting Kane in means having to sacrifice another premium player, or doing 3 or more transfers, then your team is NOT flexible.

Having all low valued strikers can become a problem as it makes it hard to move cash up front for upgrades.
Example:

Wilson + Siggy = 16m
King + Siggy = 14.5m

KANE + 4.5m = 15.5m

With no strikers above 7m, you’d need to downgrade 2 players for -4, or lose a premium.

Cheap strikers save cash, but you lose the ability to easily bring in another Premium. Make sure you’ve got a plan!
Read 10 tweets
🍒WILSON VS KING (THREAD)🍒

In this thread, I will be comparing their stats from last season, try to look at both sides of the argument & give my personal opinion right at the end.

In the 2019/20 season, Wilson's priced increased to 8.0m while King stayed the same at 6.5m
#FPL
🍒CONTENT🍒

1⃣Stats from last season
2⃣The VAR factor
3⃣Role in the team
4⃣💸💸
5⃣Summing Up
6⃣My Opinion
7⃣Sources
🍒STATS FROM LAST SEASON🍒
(K=King, W=Wilson)
Mins
K-2974
W-2535

Shots (Inside the Box)
K-72 (60)
W-65 (62)

Goals(Pens)/Assists
K-12(5)/3
W-14(1)/9

Big chances missed
K-10
W-21

xG
K- 13.55
W- 16.02

xG per 90
K- 0.41
W- 0.57

xGI per 90
K- 0.54
W- 0.78
Read 15 tweets
[THREAD] A few things I learned from the pursuit of the ultimate set-and-forget zombie team. #FPL
Patience and confidence in the best players is key. Rotation doesn’t matter. Inconsistency doesn’t matter. Points matter. So choose players who you think will have the most points at the end of the season and don’t move them.
Rotation risk can be a good thing, so long as you have the right subs. This was the difference between a top 1k set-and-forget team and the #2 overall. Sterling + a good sub works itself out to be as good or better than Salah. Wilson + Jimenez or Wood is better than Aguero.
Read 14 tweets
15 reasons to go with alternative chip strategy for #fpl which allows the following:

✅ Load up on Man City
✅ Avoid losing value in Man Utd and Wolves players
✅ Option to use both BB/TC in DGW's
✅ More quality players, perhaps even quantity(?)
Assumptions:
FH, WC and BB in tact (TC optional)
Currently have ~5 players for blank GW31
Blank GW31 fixtures fall in DGW32
Blank GW33 fixtures fall in DGW35
Chelsea DGW32
Brighton vs Cardiff DGW tbc
This thread will also be split into three phases to try and make better sense of it:

Phase 1 - GW27-GW30, the calm before the storm.
Phase 2 - GW31-GW33, pure carnage.
Phase 3 - GW34-GW38, the home stretch.
Read 23 tweets
⚠️Thread Alert⚠️

Here's a thread on the best teams with players with form and fixtures under 7.0% ownership. A bit differential options here 👍👍
👍 And 🔁 if you find this useful
#FPL #FPLCommunity
#FantasyPL

(1/11)
🔥 Leicester city. (2/11)

⚡Vardy
- godly fixtures till GW35
- 3.9% ownership, helps you gain rank.👍
-8.8m 🌟

⚡ Maddison
- Came to life last GW, with most chances created.
- 4.1% ownership.
- 6.6m 🌟

⚡ Chillwell
- 2.3 % ownership, enabler.👍
- 5.0m 🌟
🔥 Spurs (3/11)

⚡Eriksen
- Playing a bit deep this season, but also coming forward at times
- bagged a goal and assist last GW.
- 6.7 % ownership. A bargain 👍👍
- Fixtures smooth from GW30- GW38
- 9.3m 🌟
Read 13 tweets
Below is a thread of a potential digne replacements ♻️. The players listed are of the same price or cheaper of digne.
Like and Retweet♻️ If you find this helpful.
#FPL #FPLCommunity #FantasyPL
@FPL_physio @FplLogic @FPL_Audit @fpl_sheikh

{THREAD}
.
.
The map shows the Total shots taken, missed shots, blocked shots or saved shots.
👕 Ricardo Pereira (LEI)
🔊5.3m
✔️ 11.9 % ownership
✔️ Fixtures looking very smooth from GW27
✔️A goal threat
✔️ Often a winger
✔️Avg xG of 2.63 in the last 10.
✔️ Avg xA of 7.05 in the last 10.
Read 13 tweets
Why your TAA replacement should be Luke Shaw, a thread:

TAA is reported out until the 24th Feb. That's 4/5 GW's depending on whether he comes back that week or GW28.

So you need a replacement with 4/5 good fixtures.
I'm going to assume you can't just go for VVD or Robertson.
Other options include Doherty, Digne, Bamba.
Wolves have nice fixtures until GW29 with 4 home games and Hud away.
But Wolves only have 1 CS in 14 games.
Doherty has 4 attacking returns which means 10 blanks.
Cardiff have good fixtures until GW31.

However, that only includes 4 home games, including Bournemouth, Everton and West Ham.

Cardiff have 3 CS's in the last 4 but don't have as nice upcoming fixtures as first appears.
Read 7 tweets
A thread on players under 15 percent owned to keep an eye on in #FPL

If you're trying to make up ground and chase down mini league leaders you won't do that by selecting the same players as everyone else

Its all about differentials

RTs Appreciated from the #FPLCommunity
Hugo Lloris he has the odd rush of blood to the head but otherwise top keeper. After United Spurs fixtures are money. Just over 5 percent owned the cheapest of the premium top 6 keepers (that start) could be worth a look if Liverpool are about to hit a rough patch
One of the cheapest starting defenders in the game at 3.9m perfect enabler especially on a wildcard. Saints look like they have improved under their new coach. Won't return every week but perfect bench fodder
Read 16 tweets

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