Thread by @areacode416

November Toronto Real Estate market analysis - complete! Some wacky stuff this month, as you can read in the blog post. But as always, some highlights here - and this month LOTS of bonus charts. #TorRE /1
areacode416homes.com/november-2019-…

One thing that's surprised me has been the rapid acceleration in price growth for 416 condo apts. Here are the YoY price increases reported in the last 3 months.
Sept: +3.3%
Oct: +9.6%
Nov: +10.9%
I was waiting on Nov to see if Oct was a fluke. Guess not. /2

Looking at all housing types, the GTA just reached its highest price growth shown this year, at 7.1%. The first 8 months of the year were all below 4% for the total GTA number. /3

Though sales volumes are up over last year, a lot of the price pressure is due to a decline in active listings (supply). Rapid decline in this GTA-wide stat too, versus last year:
Sept: -14.1%
Oct: -18.8%
Nov: -27.2% 👀
Saying buyers had 27% less properties to choose from. /4

Same story for GTA new listings (came out in the month).
Sept: -1.9%
Oct: -9.6%
Nov: -17.9% 👀
That happened quickly. /5

The increasing sales and decreasing inventory has led to a tightening of the market unusual for a November. Check out these low months of inventory (active listings ➗ sales). These all indicate "seller's market" conditions. /6

Sales and dollar volumes have already surpassed 2018 full-year totals. In the 905 they surpassed them in October. /7

Here's apples to apples: YTD November comparisons. 905 has looked better all year because 416 recovered more last year so 905 coming from lower base. /8

I've been forecasting 88,000 for the year for the past few months and that still sounds about right. That would put it in line with the non-boom years this decade (i.e. ignoring the volume record-setting 2015 and 2016). /9

Here are 5-year CAGRs for 416 avg prices.
-HOUSES peaked at 13.90% in spring 2017 and have come down to 7.88%, closer to the 20-year rate of 7.14%
-CONDOS are sitting at 10.59%, much higher than the 20-year rate of 6.89%. I don't think that's sustainable. #regressiontothemean /10

But as long as Condo Active Listings stay ridiculously low, they may stay up for awhile. I talk about it a lot in the blog post as #1 factor driving stupid price increases. Since Oct 2016, 20 of the 38 months have had YoY price increases of 10% or more. #silly /11

This shows just how crazy low 416 Condo Active Listings are right now. Used to be ~twice as many condos on the market as houses. Houses are about 100 higher than the avg for the decade right now, so acting the same. But you can clearly see condo listings have ⬇️. /12

Condo sales are right at the 10-year average, but condo active listings at the end of November were 38% below average. That's going to put upward pressure on prices. /13

416 Freehold sales are still slowly recovering. The 13,162 is 12% higher than what it was at last year at this time, but still about 2,700 sales below the 10 year average (and 3,100 below the long-term average). Still lower than any other previous bottoms too. /14

As always, you can access the full set of monthly charts through the blog, but here's a direct link. 15/ slideshare.net/ScottIngramCPA…