Here's a rental eviction story a friend of mine is letting me share, from the N12 notice (family member) to the recently concluded LTB hearing. So grab a ☕️, sit back 🪑, and read this 🧵 to see the outcome. /1 July 2020 - "I texted him at 9:30am asking about cockroaches I had seen in the apartment in the last few weeks.. he replied a few hours later asking me if the type and let me know his mom would be moving in.. all in the same message with the 🙏at the end. Next day sent N12." /2

Since CBC Marketplace likes investigating, I thought I'd do my own investigation on the house in the Real Estate "exposé" that aired last night, which centered around this house in Vaughan. Here's a bit more info for you in this 🧵/1 The owner was complaining about how they listed on the MLS offering to pay 1% commission to the "co-operating brokerage" (buyer's agent), which is short of the more common 2.5% commission offered in the GTA market. She claimed that agents were "steering" their clients away. /2

So CBC is running a show tonight (which I'm PRVing). Here's the article previewing it. I got emails this afternoon from TRREB and OREA about it this aft, so it might be getting some play.

I'll share the emails and my criticisms of the CBC here... /1
cbc.ca/news/canada/ma… Here's what TRREB had to say. /2

TRREB has released its September #torontorealestate numbers. They like to accentuate the stats that would indicate everything is awesome, but let me point out 5⃣ STATS SHOWING MARKET COOLING ❄️ /1 First let me say it's not a COLD market yet by any means. But problem is everyone just likes to look at YoY change. When you think about it, 12 months is a somewhat arbitrary period to compare to. So September sales are way ⬆️(42%) and average prices are also ⬆️ (14%) /2

Some weekly #torontorealestate sales numbers in this thread. Firstly, week over week pattern this year continued to follow same as last year (only couple of deviations on here, main one being Labour Day one week later this year). /1 The total sales in the 416 in the past 4 weeks cumulative have been just 1% below 2019, with this week being flat. /2

Bonus Tuesday #torontorealestate chart content. Here's an update weekly 416 sales year-over-year. Can see how unusually down was during COVID, then unusually up when things started re-opening. Spike week ending 9/6 was b/c normal week this year but Labour Day week last year. /1 Reverse is true for week ending 9/13 (includes Labour Day this year). That blue line was condo and freehold combined. This is separated. Can see the big YoY sales increases really driven by freeholds. /2

Tuesday - who's ready for some 416 Active Listings?

First up, Condos. Added 179 listings in the last week (⬆️3.0%). Slower growth than last 2 weeks. We're going to have a new record at the end of the month (for any month). Of course, way more condos built now than 25 yrs ago. /1 Last year, condos peaked the week before this one and then declined each week until January. Not sure when active listings are going to stop growing this time. At least it's slowing down a little. Added 179 last week. Average for 19 weeks preceding was +200. /2

Looked at 416 condo MOI right as of today, and compared Downtown (C1 and C8 are south of Bloor between roughly Dufferin and DVP) and rest of city.

DT definitely smarting more (I've def seen ⬇️ price pressure). Is 45% of listings, but was only 29% of sales in last 30 days. /1 FOR LEASE: DT is 62% of active listings and 58% of leases in last 30 days. For all talk about terrible rental market, it's not like leases have stopped. Has been nearly 3800 in last 30 days. Might be some people shuffling from A to B to take advantage of lower rents. /2

Weekly 416 Sold Over Asking numbers. Haven't shared in a while.
Freeholds still chugging along at numbers only seen in record-sales year 2016. Took sharp upturn last week (but one week doesn't mean trend, could be blip). /1 Same in 20% over asking. Strongest numbers since 2016 for last 3 months. I track this as one indicator of market heat 🔥. In years I've tracked, the peaks for these stats have coincided with frothiest periods (spring 2017 (red), Feb/Mar 2020), and drops in uncertain times. /2

Weekly live look-in at 416 Active Listings 👀
Bit less Freehold inventory than last couple of years.
Way more Condo inventory than last couple of years.
Let's look a bit deeper... /1 The following two charts are on the same scales. Amount of 30+ day listings are in the same ballpark, but you can see percentage of "fresh" listings is a lot higher on Freehold (30.6% vs. 23.8%). /2

I just went through the City of Toronto's Short-Term Rental $50 registration process to see how it went. I'll tweet some screenshots and observations. But first, the link. #shorttermrentals #airbnb /1
toronto.ca/community-peop… It asks if the place is your principal residence (a requirement), then gives some helpful guidance. /2

Was looking through the 1914 Might's Toronto City Directory and the EJ Lennox (1854-1933) ad popped out at me. A lot of his landmark buildings are still around: Old City Hall, Casa Loma, Queen's Park (west wing), King Edward Hotel. /1 If you're curious to flip through some, the @torontolibrary has many of them digitized. You can look up addresses and see who lived there or what company was there, or names and see what their occupations were. /2
torontopubliclibrary.ca/history-geneal…

🚨Mid-month 416 TRREB sales stats.

Similar story to August. Freehold (ground-level housing) sales up everywhere, with burbs outpacing Toronto growth. /1 Condos sales are up, but not to degree of freeholds (21% vs. 66%). /2

Hello Canada and Active Listings fans in the United States and Newfoundland. Tuesday. Active Listings Night in Canada (thread).

Freeholds: They're growing! Big boost after Labour Day as the fall market kicks off. (So looks like we're back to more normal seasonality.) /1 Condos: They're growing! Still. Huge boost in "fresh lettuce" (green) in the last week, but some might be re-listings. /2

🚨August market charts are up🚨
👉FIND OUT what's happening in the 416 condo and freehold markets!
👉SEE HOW they are acting very differently lately!
👉VIEW the charts that show things with HISTORICAL CONTEXT!
➕ SPECIAL BONUS charts in this thread /1
areacode416homes.com/august-2020-ch… HPI price growth is actually accelerating in 416 freeholds. /2

Weekly live look-in at 416 active listings 👀
After slowing down coming into long weekend, condos continued their ⬆️climb (+172 w/w)
Freeholds only changed by +5. They generally rise through Sept & Oct. We'll see if now we go back to seasonal norms after weird spring/summer. /1 Most interesting development for me was rolling 30 days of sales jumped a lot for freeholds & condos last week. First week of Sept much strong than first week of Aug. So MOI decreased for both ownership types.

👉Freeholds lowest since March 24 (24 weeks). /2

Couple of charts from RBC's latest Focus on Canadian Housing report.
Uptick in HPI YoY price growth in all 3 of these major 🇨🇦 markets (though Calgary still declining). #VanRE /1 Active listings climbing, but bigger picture (moving avg) is still lower levels than most of last 13 years. /2

First time sharing this chart... You know days on market (DOM)? Well it doesn't account for houses being relisted. So if a house is on for 45 days doesn't sell, re-lists for 30 days doesn't sell, then relists again and sells in 10 days, DOM in official stats = 10 (not 85). /1 So the came out with a new stat.
LDOM = Listing DOM, which is the official one (10 above)
PDOM = Property DOM, which reflects sum of all listing days (85)

Hypothesis: When market is hot/tight the spread will be small b/c don't need to re-list b/c sells quickly. /2

🚨August TRREB stats are out. First-look thread here.

You've got sales ⬆️40% and active listings only ⬆️5% so that's a lot tighter market and you're seeing prices ⬆️20% hitting another record GTA avg price: $951K. Gravity-schmavity. /1 But note sales are ⬇️3% from July so looks like some of that pent-up demand is out of the system now.

YTD Aug is 57,750 sales vs. 60,177, so within 4% now, which shows how hot the first few months were and how big this catch-up has been. /2

I'm a day late with posting my weekly look-in 👀thread at 416 Active Listings because real life client stuff takes precedence and there are only so many hours in the day.

Leveling off in the past week as many listers hold-back until after a long weekend. /1 Was lowest week-over-week gain in 416 condo inventory since beginning of May. /2

1/ Thread on "exodus to suburbs and WFH.
First, U.S. survey finding suburbanites just as likely to be considering new residence as city dwellers: 2/ Another survey showing only 3% to 5% are going to be permanently WFH.