Thread by @KirstyS_Hughes

EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.

Thread

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Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
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Concerns too at UK's regulatory divergence goal. What does this mean in principle? Lack of understanding in some quarters of even the basic point that goods coming into EU mkt must meet its regulations.
Aim at dynamic alignment on state aids, prob also tax will be v tough
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EU had this sewn up in the 2018 deal with May - annex 4 of the 2018 N Ireland protocol covers in great detail areas & laws for level playing field, no regression, dynamic alignment for some & almost EU running UK competition policy. Won't be easy now.
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EU shd finish assessing financial services equivalence by July, agree praps by autumn, will UK get all areas it wants?
Fisheries tough but poss landing zone: UK as indep coastal state, joint mgt of stocks, similar but lower access to waters than now, EU states not there yet
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Other services: Talks will have to wait til 2021 (also on intell property rights, poss public procurement), so there'll be a real services cliff edge - services will be under WTO/GATS (General Agreement on Trade in Services), then talks will aim to slowly improve on that.
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Governance central across all areas - monitoring, enforcement, dispute settlement. Concerns on this too.
Again it had been set out fully in Annex 4 of Theresa May deal. But where Johnson's govt may go quite unclear.
Key internal security issues for 2020: data, extradition etc
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Climate change: the European Green Deal, is now at heart of European Commission strategy for next five years. So climate change being given more emphasis in level-playing field. Big systemic change coming, big demands on business, not going to tolerate climate dumping from UK
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So far, Johnson's comments on climate seen as positive. UK has been progressive, relatively, on climate change - Scotland noted positively in particular here. But what will Johnson really do? No one knows, can't be trusted etc.
Concerns as well as hopes around COP26 in Glasgow
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High political hopes for COP26. Concerns at how the UK-EU talks - which cd be bad-tempered or even break down, cd impact on hoped-for close, continuing cooperation w UK into COP26.
Hope UK & Scottish govt frictions won't impact negatively on COP26, fears it might.
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See UK politics unpredictable, hope wider public opinion & pressure from progressive Scottish govt on climate cd impact on UK govt (unlikely). Interested if Scottish environmental legislation stayed closer to EU, wd Scotland then too face potential climate dumping from rUK?
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If UK doesn't play ball on climate, it cd even face a carbon border tax itself - one more big friction. Some potential gains here too if UK, as non-EU country signed up to EU emissions trading system, cd provide a model/path for other non-EU countries.
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EU doesn't want talks breakdown but cd happen - UK wd have to come back to table. No deal now easier for EU as got the 3 main elements of withdrawal agreement. Will need contingencies eg for aviation but any contingency measures mustn't reduce leverage for next stage of talks
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In summary, there's a deal to be done, EU will play hard ball, v concerned if they can get level-playing field & governance commitments needed. See Johnson needs some divergence gloss on it all but deal needs to be pinned down w great precision, so real limits on that.
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