Ten questions on independence in the EU for the SNP/FM candidates.

(1) How quickly after independence day will you submit an application to join the EU?

(2) How long do you expect it to take to join the European Union? (3) What do you see as the top 3 challenges facing the EU and how would Scotland as an EU member state help face up to those challenges?

(4) What are the three biggest benefits for Scotland to being an EU member state?

Gordon Brown's report doesn't seem to be going down well in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland. So what's it for? Is it genuinely trying to do something for English regions or is it mainly about soundbites on change, at least in case of Scotland? On independence, Labour's refusal to countenance a referendum, & its rejection of any mandate coming from another general election win by the SNP, yet insisting a Labour win mandates its constitutional proposals, is hypocritical, plus implies future stonewalling on indy

Must an independent Scotland have its own currency to join EU? Many commenting on Scottish govt's economy paper yesterday said it did.
EU treaty, article 142, says member states not in euro must treat exchange rate with euro as a 'matter of common interest'. Member states not in euro must also aim at price stability. Impossible to meet these conditions if using pound sterling.
But accession talks can certainly start before meeting these conditions.
And there may be an alternative route.

Scottish government new economy paper sets out strong picture of how an independent Scotland cd develop a new economic & social model within EU, rather than stay part of low growth, unstable, unequal UK. What it's rather weaker on is the transition path.
gov.scot/publications/b… The paper recognises aim of staying within EU stability & growth pact (to be reformed) rules & to establish an EU external border with rUK.
There is little or nothing though on timing of establishing border, setting up Scottish pound & rejoining EU.

Lots of belated waking up to Tories Brexit damage of last 6 years. It so damaged UK politics that Starmer still pretends there's a good Brexit.
And there's no way EU would have UK back. It might need 20 years of complete political repair for UK to look like a real democracy again If Labour ends up with a massive majority at Westminster, with a tiny splintered Tory opposition, there won't be a functioning Britain-wide opposition - and so UK wouldn't meet EU Copenhagen criteria. EU wd want to know UK is stable, fully committed to membership, maybe in 2040?

Thoughts on #devomax debate from international & EU perspective.

Hard to separate foreign/external policy from domestic policy, yet more so for EU policy. States will deal with UK when making treaties whatever its constitutional set-up.

1/ There are federal states that give sub-states some power over trade or migration (notably Belgium, Canada) but requires clear federal interactive structures. Prof Michael Keating @CCC_Research leading expert on this
2/
archive.scottish.parliament.uk/s3/committees/…

How does Brexit look 5 years on from & for Scotland?
Scotland didn’t vote for Brexit – 62% voted remain.
Scottish Government and public views were essentially ignored by UK government under both May and Johnson.

1/9 Scottish economy damaged by Brexit across a range of sectors from fisheries to tourism to culture especially since Trade and Cooperation Agreement implemented start 2021. Loss of EU free movement v damaging to Scottish economy & society.
2/9

UK govt gearing up to pressure Scottish & other devolved admins on European & international offices. A sort of crazed control-freakery (not sure what happened to love-bombing).
More seriously, perfectly normal for regions & sub-states to have Brussels & international offices.
1/8

https://twitter.com/gallardo_ortega/status/1398277751459753986

Bavaria has a Brussels office, so does Quebec, Catalonia etc. This is more about rampant Tory unionism, & fear of Scottish govt para diplomacy, including not least its successful Brussels, Berlin, Dublin & Paris offices & manifesto commitment to open a Nordic/Baltic hub
2/8

As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic

Implications of EU-UK deal for Scot govt aim
of indy in EU?
- no tariffs or quotas iScot-rUK but plenty of customs checks & bureaucracy, but some trusted traders scheme etc
- iScot wd benefit, as rest of EU, from level-playing field controls
- challenges on services trade espec. What is clear is that the new 1246 page EU-UK treaty will set a big chunk of future iScotland-rUK relations if iScotland does rejoin the EU. But given limited services access, there will also be much to negotiate bilaterally on services (& on non-EU issues).

New @scer_eu Policy Paper: EU Views of the UK, the future EU-UK relationship & UK's constitutional strains
1/10
scer.scot/database/ident… EU Views of UK: both appalled, concerned & pragmatic; see UK, since 2016, as unreliable, unpredictable, untrustworthy, as having lost influence, & harming itself in multiple ways.
Yet, EU still wants close, constructive relationship building on a basic deal.
2.

EU views on upcoming UK-EU relationships talks from my Brussels visit this week:
Core mantra: deal to be done is 'level-playing field for free trade agreement'. No tariffs/quotas is big offer & not given for nothing back. Governance is key.
UK now weaker partner.

Thread

1. Much concern on level-playing field as v brief commitment in political declaration to 'uphold the common high standards' at end of transition on state aid, competition, social/labour standards, environment, climate change & 'relevant tax matters'.
2.

Government WAB impact assessment full of holes but look at detail on GB-NI trade - East-West, West-East or from outside EU.
56% of NI external trade in goods is w GB, 27% w EU.
Freight transfer NI-GB 17.6 million tonnes of which 35% is NI-Scotland
1/

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Tariffs will apply East-West i.e. GB to NI unless goods not at risk of entering EU. Import Declarations & Entry Summary declarations both needed E-W - this is the EU customs border. So rule of origin apply too. And then regulatory compliance.
2/

So what did we learn from Johnson's visit to Scotland?
That he's either so scared of a few boos from Scottish protesters &/or has such a naive media adviser that he left Bute house by the back door rather than face protesters again
1.
theguardian.com/politics/2019/… We learnt Johnson has nothing to say to remain-voting Scotland, weak promise of some reheated funding is not meant to smooth huge hit of a no deal Brexit nor be a plausible media story
That Ruth Davidson 'whole heartedly backs' his Brexit strategy (really? there's a strategy?)
2

If the EU does give UK a 9 month extension (not certain, cd be less, cd be more) then what for Brexit & chances of a people's vote? thread

9 months wd give time to hold another EU referendum - but not that much time as it wd probably need 4-7 months.
1/11 Parliament - which has not yet found a majority for anything on Brexit beyond delay (& triggering A50) - would have to choose to hold a people's vote & pass necessary legislation. This would need Labour & enough Tory MPs to back a PV with remain on the ballot paper.
2/11

Extraordinary & misleading letter from 25 Labour brexiters highlighting 44% choose no deal over remain 42% in latest yougov poll..& that all 'English' regions outside London prefer no deal - short thread on what the data really shows
1.

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1113789002396598273

Data is for GB so N Ireland not included; what the Lab25 call english regions actually includes Wales.
'Regions' are v large: london, rest of south, Wales/Midlands, North, Scotland.
Given multiple choice outcomes top choice is referendum/remain 37%, no deal is 2nd on26%
2.

Where do last Brexit votes leave us? short thread

If the UK leaves the EU on 29th March it will be a chaotic no deal Brexit. Any other Brexit needs more time.
Even if May's deal passed at Westminster before then, delay/A50 extension needed for necessary legislation to pass.
1/6 EU may offer tweaks but not in a hurry - some EU leaders today suggest UK shd ask for feasible/realistic changes (incl. changed red lines) & a delay.
But Brexiters have no realistic alternative arrangements & there is no Tory unity (except on unicorns cf Brady)
2.

The Boles Norway Plus option - a short thread:
1. Irish backstop 'falls away': but since UK cd leave EEA, EU will insist Irish backstop is permanently available

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1067004391805411328

2. UK to leave CAP/CFP - so then there needs to be specific arrangements for NI as now in backstop so no friction for agric/fish products at border
- so there would be NI/UK differentiation

Political Declaration:

Structure is as proposed by Barnier months back ie Economic Partnership, Security Partnership, Cooperation on Areas of Interest (research etc)

Big Question: Will this be 'Canada Dry' or 'Turkey Plus'
1. 'Ambitious, broad, deep, flexible' partnership means v little ie a free trade agreement (FTA) or customs union plus cooperation on law/justice, foreign policy, security, defence. There won't be frictionless trade,not same rights or obligs as w EU mship, integrity of EU's CU/SM 2.

ScotTories/Tomkins (AT) want uniform Brexit across UK, wd deny a backstop for Northern Ireland to avoid any encouragement (in their view) to indy in Scotland. Lets look at their arguments (thread) ft.com/content/60b7a8… via @financialtimes AT: ‘Brexit looks v different..viewed from Scotland. Not because Scots voted by 62 per cent to 38 per cent to remain’
Dismissive of all Scottish ‘remain’ support; LibDem, Lab, SNP, Green voters support remain at over 70%. AT’s argument is for Tory not Scottish unionist voters 2.

A few thoughts on May’s potential latest Brexit idea, if cabinet agrees:

Idea (perhaps) to essentially stay in EU single mkt for goods & agriculture, not for fisheries nor services. Leave CU but have a customs partnership almost mimicking CU but allowing own trade deals 1. Various problems:

Why wd EU agree to this without free movement of people? And why wd it agree to it without services ie splitting the 4 freedoms (& when goods & services are often intertwined in one product)? 2.