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Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
Federico Andres Lois
@federicolois
Geek before it became trendy. Performance, C#, Deep Learning and Financial Modeling. Former Founder of @Corvalius.

Jan 30, 2020, 5 tweets

1/5 With today's numbers, these are the expectations:
H1N1 - 20-40 per 100000 infected *
SARS - 11000 per 100000 inf.
MERS - 29700 per 100000 inf.
Coronavirus - 2076 per 100000 inf.

2/5 The assumptions:
- Everyone infected to date lives.
- Numbers after 8K infected don't change much modeling 2009 A(H1N1) outbreak behavior.

3/5 * Final mortality of H1N1 is just an estimation the latest actual measurement by the CDC shows 1250 per 100000 infected by week 31

4/5 ** If we assume same kind of behavior we should expect mortality around 50 - 100 per 100000 infected

5/5 *** Unless of course, I missed the mark on the math, no one is infallible.

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