Federico Andres Lois Profile picture
Geek before it became trendy. Performance, C#, Deep Learning and Financial Modeling. Former Founder of @Corvalius.
Deplorable Skymom Profile picture Κασσάνδρα Παρί پری Profile picture fche Profile picture Phil Hershkowitz Profile picture Squints Profile picture 11 added to My Authors
Feb 25 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ Nobody wants a war anywhere in the world. Well some want because they profit from it, I certainly decided early on in my career to never support the war machine. Period.

Fixating on something we dont have and will never have a real understanding of the situation wont help. 2/ Condemn war in every form, but focus on what enacts a change and that's where you are right now. You can start with this:
If there are no workers, there is no industry. Focus on helping the people you have near you. My focus is kids education this days.
Feb 17 21 tweets 8 min read
1/ Can we settle already that we were right with "The Asian Hypothesis"? The mask and mandates ninjas were able to 'stop' the wildtype, mildly successful for Delta [they proclaimed masks works] and were slapped in the face by Omicron. Isn't it odd? No, it is not. Let me explain. 2/ Back in October 2020, with @LDjaparidze we realized that nothing made sense. No matter which variable you would try to use to explain the low infection rates, you could always find almost without effort a counter example. Modus Tollens. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modus_tol…
Feb 16 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ I don't agree with Michael here about the assessment that it is show it is working properly, more likely I would say they are missing critical information in the paper to reach that conclusion. And I will explain why. 2/ High viral load by vax status is important, why? Because the higher load is telling you something, the virus actually had more time to replicate before getting dragged down by immunity. So distribution matters, first critical missing piece of info.
Jan 21 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ I was asked today if I could do a quick and dirty estimation of Victoria just given the rough population of 2016. So it was like 5.5M with 1.2M over 60yo. So I took Greater London setup, updated the population and ratio of vulnerable people. 2/ Used Ro=6 which sorta works for approximating Greater London and ratio of detected vs undetected of 1/3 (we detect only 1 out of 3 total cases). The numbers are interesting, simulation expect the cases to peak at 51K detected cases, or roughly 153K of total cases per day.
Jan 14 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ No suelo escribir en castellano, pero como esto es bien local, acá va. Resulta que esta semana me llama una mamá que con el tema del cambio de protocolo como hubo un niño vacunado infectado de Omicron en la colonia, le habian declarado a su niño como contacto estrecho. 2/ Resulta que por esta razón, no lo dejaban entrar. Pero, con el cambio ahora si dejan entrar a los niños vacunados sin síntomas. Fijense la estupidez, no dejan entrar al niño sin síntomas no vacunado, y el niño que genera todo está infectado y vacunado. Bueno...
Jan 14 4 tweets 1 min read
Te explico lo que significa porque el ministerio nos respondió lo mismo en un legajo oficial. "LA VACUNA NO ES OBLIGATORIA". Si no te dejan entrar en algún lugar, llama al 911, pedí un fiscal y hace una denuncia por disciminación.
infobae.com/educacion/2021… Es clave que te manden a un fiscal de turno o a la policia para que haya constancia del hecho. Si todos nos tomamos el tiempo (vacunados o no), se termina todo en un rato, cuando los jueces tengan que hacerse cargo de la oleada de denuncias no les va a causar gracia.
Jan 10 4 tweets 2 min read
I have been using @brave for a long time already, mostly because of @BrendanEich unhindered zealotry on privacy. I kept @firefox around because well, I have most browsers for development work. Not anymore, the fox has been deplatformed from my devices.

I invite you to join me. Another interesting take on @twitter. It appears they dont like @brave either as even writing it like complete, the official account wont show on the list as a valid account. Weird.
Jan 8 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ A long time ago with @LDjaparidze we showed that if you can measure a harmless virus using PCR on a 19 days window AND test all deaths in a location you would still see deaths attributed to it. (remember that the base is that it does not kill anyone). 2/ If you remember, different spreading patterns would generate different deaths per million, because the probability of finding someone dying and positive at the same time has a very unintuitive behavior. So that begs the question, what would happen on a very fast virus?
Jan 5 9 tweets 3 min read
1/ A pedido de @DarioEpstein acá va un thread explicativo sobre Omicron.
- Omicrón evade inmunidad, nos va a contagiar a todos estes vacunado o no.
- A mayor cantidad de dosis de vacunas, mas probable es que te infectes.
- Las vacunas no frenan la epidemia. 2/ - El pase sanitario NO tiene ningún sentido porque las vacunas no impactan la dinámica epidémica.
- Omicron es la pandemia de los vacunados.
- Es tan contagiosa que probablemente nos contagie a todos en un par de meses.
Jan 4 4 tweets 1 min read
1/ As lockdowns were a gamble back in 2020 that backfired, assuming the boosters strategy works (I am still not convinced) is also a gamble that can backfire and create a 2nd Omicron wave of the boosted individuals.
2/ But, it has the potential to be way worse. When the virus is spreading fast, the probability of stacked mutations (those that allows antigenic drift over time) is lower as the infections tree is shallow. The higher the Ro the more shallow it becomes.
Dec 28, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
So this is it. There is a very simple way to explain this. Check @LDjaparidze thread on Omicron I am looking for details. Should I add this to the I told you so thread?
Dec 14, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ Differences in denominator cause this type of results. You dont catch every actual infected, but you do know the total amount of vaccinated therefore results become heavily biased. So take it with a "grain of salt". 2/ But you know what? Yes I am pretty sure you know already that there is something hidden in a table out there. Right? Check if you can find it.
Dec 2, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
Probably the most out of touch analogy I heard in a loooong time. If they are like my prototype code... well... for the record I found critical bugs in code that has been executing in production FOR YEARS. I like the technical parts here. The most impactful for my line of work (performance) is a type of critical vulnerabilities collectively known as side-channel attacks. Computers built in 2011 carry the 'bad gene' and the base gene was introduced in 1995 intel architecture.
Nov 30, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ This is a type of solution I would get behind. The "Isolation Exception Insurance" was proposed by @LDjaparidze and me last year on Page 16/17. It solves the 'spreading conundrum' and guarantees individual rights and obligations. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 2/ Where's the caveat? It has to be universal, if not it is discriminatory, because vaccinated also end up in the hospital and also transmit. The rational, fair and more important humane solution. For fairness the government cannot be the one doing the risk calculations.
Nov 6, 2021 7 tweets 4 min read
1/ No es novedad para nadie que haya hecho la tarea. #MileiTeniaRazon porque @JMilei estudio en vez de hablar sin saber. Miren lo que dice el sistema de farmacovigilancia de la PAHO (OMS). ¿También les dijeron a las embarazadas que habia evidencia? covid-19pharmacovigilance.paho.org 2/ Pero a no horrorizarse, aunque ahora dudo. ¿Es solo el caso de Sinopharm, verdad? Bueno, no. Es un poco técnico pero veamos Pfizer. Es importante notar que el RCT para menores de 16 años consta de 2260 adolescentes. ¿Es esto suficiente?
Oct 25, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ One thing that may not be entirely transparent from this is that this also applies for any non-sterilizing vaccine. If the vaccine can cause the same adverse event as the disease, what matters the sum of all of them vs the no-intervention probability. 2/ That means that the probability of the chain of events is strictly non-zero.

vaccinated -> event (VE)
vaccinated -> infected -> event (VIE)
infected -> vaccinated -> event (IVE)
infected -> event (IE)

Then you need to know if: (VE + VIE + IVE) < IE
Does not hold in kids.
Sep 22, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
1/n Me parece que la periodista se olvidó de mencionar quizas al país más importante en el NO uso del barbijo. Casualmente el único que no tiene una tercera ola a lo Israel (país que más rápido vacunó a su población en el mundo). 2/ Le recomendaría a @LNdata que cuando vayan a sacar una nota de tal relevancia, verifiquen con expertos en estadísticas para no quedar en offside. Digo conozco gente ahí mismo que hubiera hecho notar la grosera falta si se le hubieran preguntado.
Sep 18, 2021 25 tweets 7 min read
1/ A pedido de algunos familiares y amigos que siempre me preguntan, pero no pueden enviar nuestra información en inglés porque es muy técnica, lean este hilo explicativo de cómo era posible saber en Abril de 2021 el alcance de la segunda ola de COVID. 2/ Con @LDJaparidze al principio en forma individual y luego en forma conjunta desde Agosto de 2020 quisimos entender cómo se comporta el SARS-Cov-2 y cual es la mejor forma de atacar el problema. O sea, como tener menos muertos.
Sep 14, 2021 7 tweets 8 min read
@Rodrigues_JoaoV @TonyBurnetti @rbrookbanks @BallouxFrancois Think in terms of populations. Mutations will happen regardless, so the probability of single mutations that are able to evade immunity is strictly non-zero. Now, if the hosts immunity is diverse (targeting many different locations)... @Rodrigues_JoaoV @TonyBurnetti @rbrookbanks @BallouxFrancois ... the probability of beneficial mutations chains survival is lower. What happens in a single host is almost irrelevant for this, what matters is the probability of chained events e1, e2, ... , en
Sep 1, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
@Akustronique 1/ There is a general misunderstanding on what a CI with p=whatever means. When you say your CI is [x..y] with a p=1-alpha you are essentially saying... I will accept p chances (say 4 in 100) of being wrong that the actual value X is within the bounds defined by x and y ... @Akustronique 2/ What most people dont understand is that any value within the interval x and y is fair game with uniform distribution. There is NO guarantee that the prior distribution (the thing you are measuring) would follow a gaussian distribution or any other.
Sep 1, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ A new "Masks RCT" has been doing the rounds lately with "The miracle of masks". Don't say more. What do you know when your CI cannot rule out no-effect or harm? Yeah, that's correct. You drop it in the garbage can where it belongs. 2/ I wouldn't even going to comment on it, a cursory look at the tables already show that whatever math you apply to it was going to be anything... but given that I got bombarded with "What do you think about the masks RCT" it forced me to comment.