Ok. I've been trying to keep quiet but all the instant experts are getting a little carried away. So here's some pro tips. Well not pro, but 'unreasonably addicted to politics' amateur tips...
1/
1. Iowa is like 103% white. Biden's strengths are not white midwesterners. He never had a chance at top two in Iowa.
2/
2. Iowa is a caucus state. All Buttigieg's surge there really means is that he has awareness (he's from the midwest) and he was a comfortable consolation prize for people whose original choice didn't hit the 15% threshold.
3/
3. Biden and Sanders are still leading all *national* polls. They are still the frontrunners. ~100k people from Iowa don't change that.
4/
4. Bernie will win NH. It will look like a landslide. Buttigieg will outperform his pre-Iowa expectations. He will underperform his post-Iowa bloated expectations.
5/
5. The news reports Pete's surge in IA as if it brings him into the lead group. It doesn't. But their reporting convinces people it does, so he bumps in the polls. That bump influences primary voters, validating the polls. It's a self-fulfilling media-driven prophecy.
6/
..It will work in every primary that does not include minorities.
6. Biden will underperform, again, in NH. NH is like 104% white. Warren will underperform expectations, but will still be in the top 4. Klobuchar will overperform expectations because "viable underdog" status.
7/
7. Yang is out. So is everyone not yet mentioned, whether they admit it or not. Except maybe Bloomberg, but he's not on the ballots yet.
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8. Nevada is a crapshoot. Anyone's guess. Biden probably gains ground. Buttigieg begins to fade. Sanders/Warren/Klobuchar plateau.
9/
9. Biden crushes SC, assuming he can keep his foot out of his mouth for another few weeks. News will report on his "resurgence," even though he never really went anywhere and the news created the appearance of him fading in the first place.
10/
10. Super Tuesday will be the first actual test representative of the electorate. Anything that happens before then is just fodder for the news - and an opportunity for controlling interests to craft narrative.
11/
Enjoy the next few weeks, and try real hard not to write anyone off yet based on half-truths, memes, recency bias and media spin.
It's a clusterf*ck out there. By design.
END/
#Primary2020 #2020Elections #Buttigieg #Sanders #Klobuchar #Warren #Biden
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