Thread by @PJverhagen

Thread: What to watch for in the #NevadaCaucus tomorrow

1. Polling accuracy
2. Second place
3. The non-white vote
4. The independent vote

Lets get into it 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

1. Polling in Nevada is generally a bit trick so they are not as useful as you might hope/want. The reasons 1/9

for this are 1. Nevada has a large young latino population that is difficult to reach. 2. There are a lot of temporary residents in Nevada, like elderly that move there in the summer. 3. There is a solid share (20%) of the population that prefers speaking Spanish. All of 2/9

these make it somewhat difficult to get accurate polling. That being said,

2. Second place

The polls seem to indicate that Sanders will take Nevada, @FiveThirtyEight has it at a 75% chance Which is a solid frontrunner lead, but entails a 25% chance that he doesnt end up 3/9

winning the state. Nonetheless Sanders did well there in 2016, especially among 17-24 (83%) and 30-39 (67%)and did well among independents (71%) too. The basic analysis is that Sanders is doing well nationally and there is no reason to say that Nevada is a below average 4/9

state for him.

The race is quite interesting in terms of who takes second place though. Polls have varied quite a bit there, but whoever wins second place will get a lot of positive media attention and might become the establishment alternative to Sanders. 5/9

3. The non-white vote

Nevada is the first state with a significant block of non-white voters (41%) in 2016. That means that it will be the first tests for the diversity of a candidate. The Latino population(19%) went for Sanders with 53% in 2016, in part because they are 6/9

are relatively young. The black vote (13%) went for Clinton with 76%. It will be interesting to see who picks up these votes, as whoever does can likely claim the famed "electability" mantle.

4. Independent voters

There is a sizable portion of independent voters(18%) 7/9

that went 71% for Sanders in 2016. It'll be interesting to see what share will stay with him. Given that there are now 6 candidates it wont be 71% but the trend will be telling. I suspect that in 2016 there was a lot of anti-establishment/anti-Clinton sentiment. 8/9

In conclusion, Nevada will be an interesting test for which candidate can present themselves as a viable alternative to Sanders. While he is likely to win I would be interested in seeing if Sanders managed to broaden his appeal since 2016.

Stay tuned for actual results soon!

I forgot something important. This is a caucus so the same 15% threshold Dynamics apply! Whoever gets eliminated first will get to redistribute their votes so getting above 15% is super important for viability. Anyone polling close to that might end up having to pick someone else