1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. Putting up a few items to summarize my current thoughts. We'll start with the big picture. I have 2 models which are similar. This is my favored one.
2/ This is the alternate which again, is similar but says it is all complete. The lower black channel line is at risk much sooner.
3/ Let's focus in on the daily. Drop is pretty much a single straight line so far. We are also at extreme levels. Thus, a reversal up is probably but I also think we make another move lower, either to retest 2850 or go more towards 2630 - as long as 2630 holds per favorite model
4/ Here's the hourly. Dang! I did say this drop at a minimum is a C wave of at least 1 degree higher than all of past 2 years so being the lowest MACD is not surprising. However, it is extreme and not where I want to be short. Hence why I closed my TVIX at 120+. High risk to keep
5/ If we put in the low on Friday, I suspect we are headed to one of the Fib retrace levels. Min 3060.
6/ So assuming Friday was the low, best guess is we have 2 possibly paths. Green says we bounce to fib retrace and correct, then drop towards 2630. Red says we bounce to fib retrace and only retest the 2850 low. Both lead to slightly bigger rally, but NO new ATH
7/ Any drop to 2630 also depends on this low holding. Not sure we are ready to break yet. I'll assess as we build the next few legs but currently staying in cash. I need this to unfold more get a better picture for a lower risk trade.
8/ And don't forget, once 2630 breaks, that is my confirmation the big bear has arrived and we will follow the purple path here. Bet on it.
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