Puff Dragon Profile picture
Just a place to post my thoughts. Not giving out advice. Not for hire. No paid service. Just paying it forward.
Maximuslegrand Profile picture Nifty waver Profile picture Gary Goldman Profile picture 4 added to My Authors
8 Jun
1/ Can't help to see how eerily similar the set up is. June 7-9-11 is Major window. Does the centerpoint on 9th finally break? STILL have not closed above May 10 high.
2/ I am not seeing strength here. Potential ending fractal where there is a rally in green and red corrective. However, each "break" results in a substantially weaker rally. The B wave top of each red for first 2 were both gap and crap. Out of room on the last one.
3/ $AAPL Seeing trouble. That's a valid 3 wave corrective bear flag on the right and on falling volume. Possible HS also with falling volume targets 103 on the break. Major market general here could help take down the market.
Read 9 tweets
6 Jun
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. Chart posted below on May 28 with current inset on top. So far so good. Another major time zone 6-7 to 6-9/11. Goods odds of drop to black channel ~4140 starting Monday.
2/ Lower black channel is super important so watch carefully. Break that and a slight alternate to above says we're done just in case.
3/ For now, let's assume black channel holds. The fractal pattern posted last week is also holding and that means time for another one of those green zigzags down.
Read 11 tweets
1 May
1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. Bank index first. $BKX
2/ Weekly. Major RSI spikes catch significant highs and lows leading to pauses or more likely, reversal. Large ABC pattern looks complete. B wave classic flat. Image
3/ $BKX ABC-X-ABC zigzag since Oct is pretty clean. B waves channel perfectly for textbook structure. Not much more to go. Image
Read 23 tweets
17 Mar
1/ You don't have to trade every day to make good money. In fact, shorter term time frames can actually be more challenging because signals are influence by higher time and lower time frames. Let things line up and take the few trades that REALLY skew things in your favor.
2/ Commodities are about to hit a brick wall. Everyone says inflation. NO!! Weeklies are awesome for long term. Line up RSI and buyer/seller ADX spikes for best results. Throw in some trend lines which correlate and you have a perfect set up.
3/ Time frames are absolutely critical. Buyer/seller or RSI spikes on the monthly may be good for more than a year. Weekly for 6-12 months. Daily for 1-4 months. 60 min - 1-3 weeks. Don't overplay signals
Read 8 tweets
8 Feb
1/ Chart Study from Dragon's Den. Been a while, but this is just a short one. Let's start with the BIG picture. Entire rally from 1932 and rally from 2009 are IDENTICAL. It's a nested pattern
2/ So if nesting, the rally from Mar 2020 low should again be like pattern from 2009. Just one degree smaller. I think it is close.
3/ Here is a close up of move from 2020. Same pattern but one difference. We are losing momentum. Do we have one more smaller cycle left? Maybe
Read 10 tweets
26 Jan
1/ Futures down tonight. 2 things. 1) I don't like big gaps near the high. Odds favor it is recovered. 2) No break until the lower blue line breaks. As long as the gap down stays above this, watch for rally to fill gap.
2/ That said, this is the final segment in the wedge and there is likely a lot of overlap but no more than 3 clear waves. once gap fills, that may be it so a terminal end is upon us.
3/ Once the lower wedge breaks though, next should be the lower parallel line here. We are seeing downside moves appear swiftly and this may continue to hold true with little time to react. I suspect that lower lines proves to be another bounce point tho.
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug 20
1. Want to see what happens to irrational markets? In 1999-2000, the NDX went a little more than double over the span of 5 months. When it turned, 25% was lost in 7 trading days. After a strong bounce, it dropped again losing overall 35% in 3 weeks.
2. After another longer bounce and drop, the total was 40% down. It managed to recover ~62% of that in the months that followed.
3. BTFD crowd rejoiced that we are off again - not knowing that 2 years later the index would lose 85% of it's value.
Read 7 tweets
17 Jul 20
1/ Seriously. I post what I believe and I have extremely high confidence in what I see. I will emphasize - I AM NOT A DAYTRADER. I don't give a sh*t what the market has done in the last few weeks, whether I am early, blah, blah...
2/ Read my pinned post - I do not give advice and YOUR trade plan will probably not match mine.
3/ If you disagree fine. But if you're going to be a d*ck because the market went up and my LONG term prognosis is another depression, we're looking at 2 different times frames.
Read 5 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. This is the big picture. It has absolutely NOT changed at all and my guide for next 2-3 years. Image
2/ The 3 peaks pattern is the true market nesting pattern. In the last big picture chart, we see that 2000-2009 was a giant ABC corrective. Going one step bigger, 2000 - now is also a giant ABC but we have only just begun the C.
3/ In some ways, that will make the coming decline as well as the 2007-2009 decline similar in terms of pattern and character. It won't be 100% as the market has ways of making things a bit dynamic but the overall arch should be similar.
Read 10 tweets
21 Jun 20
1/ Virus thoughts. Chart below shows tracking of positive cases. Note there is a weekly up/down cycle likely due to less testing and work done on the weekend. There is a 1-2 day lag for results to filter through so looking at this, all dips are on weekend. Image
2/ Clearly, shutdowns had the anticipated affect of "flattening the curve". However, Memorial Day was a pivot when the public basically went YOLO and you started seeing mass gatherings, many people without masks
3/ Incubation is 4-14 days, but most are 10-14 down the road. Note that ~June 6 marked a low point, 12 days after Memorial Day. No doubt we are seeing the result of mass ignorance of the virus as cases tick up dramatically since then.
Read 15 tweets
10 Jun 20
Euphoria in stocks is very much like peak in dot com. This is much like 100 people playing musical chairs only when the music stops, 90 of them are going to get pulled, not just 1.
Uh oh.....what happened to the music?
If you did not trade the 2001 or 2007 top, you’re in for a real treat. And a lesson in how markets really work. The FED is POWERLESS.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun 20
Converging to the end point. It's GTFO time. Image
Full moon June 5th.
Let's just make a little study out of it. Few more charts....this is current favored path right now, though if lower blue line does not hold, 2ndary is still major crash, just more immediate. Image
Read 5 tweets
28 May 20
1/ Mini Chart study from the Dragon's Den. WARNING!!!
2/ Still following the classic 3 peaks and domed house pattern. Reminder here.
3/ 3 peaks, aka corrective flat patterns are everywhere. We are following one from 2011 the best in terms of structure.
Read 9 tweets
17 Apr 20
1/ Chart Study from the Dragon's Den. This will take me a little bit and I might have to finish tomorrow but let's see how far I get. I'll note when it is complete.
2/ First a little wave intro. Be aware, I think Elliott Wave is pure GARBAGE under Prechter's "theory". Most people don't use it correctly, break rules, etc to force counts. It is also not a "theory" because it is based on absolutely nothing for proof. It all based on looks.
3/ Ask anyone 1 question when they put out a count - why? No one can answer that because EW is not based on data. It's a guess, pure and simple. That said, the market is in fact, structured based on patterns, it's just not a nested 5 wave pattern.
Read 32 tweets
23 Mar 20
1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. If you have followed me for a while, you know I study chart patterns. Charts = price patterns = human reactions to events. I tie this to indicators and data to validate but do not show all data. My version of EW is also unique
2/ I find it interesting that 3X ETFs which amplify emotion, are showing what appear to be 5 wave patterns with 5th waves developing. A few examples...Housing Image
3/ Biotech Image
Read 7 tweets
19 Mar 20
1/ Market update - OK, getting a little tricky here. Will preface by saying I am in cash right now and not playing this. Pattern looks short term bullish with an up followed by abc corrective that finishes on a gap down tomorrow open. Needs an up to follow. Image
2/ Max would be 2600 if it materializes but unclear if it gets that far. Would be another of those bear market power rallies.
3/ That said, the bigger picture says we still probably need that dive to somewhere between 1800-2100. A rally like that would clear out shorts and drop the floor again to be able to hit this and terminate at that level before we spend a few months trying to recover.
Read 4 tweets
10 Mar 20
Keep this model in mind. If we follow the premise that this is a C wave for the ABC that began in Jan 2018, it should mimic the C wave for the ABC from Jan 2018-Dec 2028. Suggests we are developing a tradeable low - IF 2640 holds. Image
Using the above, we are then currently moving towards red dot 3 which could be higher or lower low. Another big bounce for green dot 1 and then final low at green dot 2. Again, 2640 must hold.
We may have found our red dot #3 low. If so, back to the opening high. Then we get our drop into 2600's
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar 20
Watching futures...anything can change by morning but taking that into consideration, still looks like a B, Now needs a slight modified count. Basically the same pattern though Image
Slightly bigger picture Image
And finally, one more possibility. This one looks more likely now, especially given current status and all the similarities. Image
Read 9 tweets
6 Mar 20
Daily is suggesting this is a retest and not a confirmed move. I suspect the B within an ABC pattern. Volume here is hinting at it. Image
60 min chart showing MACD momentum has largely dissipated. Also, support a retest and potential low coming up. Image
This is the suspected path. It has not changed since last week's low, but has undergone some modifications as we see how the segments unfold. ABC corrective on the low. I have not traded much since last Friday but will reload short in size on the C rally. Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Mar 20
1/ Chart study from the Dragon's Den. Putting up a few items to summarize my current thoughts. We'll start with the big picture. I have 2 models which are similar. This is my favored one. Image
2/ This is the alternate which again, is similar but says it is all complete. The lower black channel line is at risk much sooner. Image
3/ Let's focus in on the daily. Drop is pretty much a single straight line so far. We are also at extreme levels. Thus, a reversal up is probably but I also think we make another move lower, either to retest 2850 or go more towards 2630 - as long as 2630 holds per favorite model Image
Read 8 tweets
28 Feb 20
1/ Chart updates from the Dragon's Den. Big picture HAS NOT CHANGED. We finally got the next segment of the pattern I ave been looking for.
2/ 3 Peaks tutorial once again for the new folks. This is an extremely reliable pattern, especially when it forms textbook.
3/ The bigger picture with the rally from 2009 fit into the 3 peak pattern. Again, if we break 2630, this is done and we are in purple down.
Read 7 tweets