Kabir K. Profile picture
@CBSNews Elections & Data Analytics | @Princeton political science PhD | https://t.co/QJs3qzWvH2

Mar 4, 2020, 60 tweets

And with those early projections, we estimate Joe Biden to now be in the delegate lead nationally...

We just projected Biden as the winner in North Carolina, along with an expanded delegate lead #SuperTuesday

Updated delegate estimates as of 8 pm: Biden's increased lead mainly due to Alabama, where we project him to win

If you're wondering about the new names on the board -- Bloomberg and Gabbard -- those are American Samoa's delegate allocations

#SuperTuesday

Fresh delegate estimates on our fancy multicolored board :)

Biden building on his lead due to strong performance in Southern states where polls closed (VA, NC, AL)

Sanders may be able to make up some ground later in the night (but we might not know California results for while)

9 pm update: our latest national delegate estimates

Decison Desk estimating Biden and Sanders on track to pick up similar number of delegates out of Texas #SuperTuesday

Our 9:30 delegate update -- Biden still leads by over 100 #SuperTuesday

Refreshed delegate board, including initial estimates out of Colorado and updated estimates elsewhere #SuperTuesday

Our Decision Desk's latest delegate estimates have Biden over 300 and Sanders over 200 now... #SuperTuesday

With polls now closed in California, here's our updated delegate board -- Sanders may narrow gap with Biden when California reports... which may take a long time!

#SuperTuesday

Here's your midnight update on our delegate estimates... #SuperTuesday

Here's where we're leaving things tonight -- going to get some sleep and update our delegate estimates tomorrow #SuperTuesday

Here's your midday delegate update (still #SuperTuesday)

National delegate update from our team #SuperTuesday

We currently estimate Biden's lead to be 70 delegates...

Biden is 26% of the way to a majority (1,991 delegates)
Sanders is 24% of the way there

Correcting typo in previous tweet: Sanders is *23%* of the way to a pledged delegate majority

Also, we still have over 400 delegates to allocate from the #SuperTuesday states

Updated delegate estimates, which now include complete (though still unofficial) results out of Texas -- Biden's lead currently at 75 delegates

Still plenty of ballots left to count in California...

#SuperTuesday day two (electric boogaloo)

Nearly 300 delegates left to allocate from #SuperTuesday states -- that's a little over a fifth of what was at stake

More for you tomorrow from @CBSNews Decision Desk...

Latest @CBSNews delegate estimates (1,287 allocated total)

Biden's estimated lead now at 78 delegates... he needs 51% of remaining delegates for majority, and Sanders needs 54%

Easter egg: Tulsi Gabbard has doubled her allocation due to American Samoa

#SuperTuesday (day three)

Among nearly 14 million votes tabulated so far, including in first four contests, here two leading candidates' shares:
Biden 35%
Bernie 29%

Here are how many delegates they're picking up for every million votes won (plus Bloomberg and Warren, who have also hit million vote mark)

National delegate update: total of 1,310 allocated so far...

Here are latest @CBSNews national delegate estimates -- nearly 1,200 delegates allocated so far with about 150 still left from Super Tuesday contests

Including upcoming contests, still over 2,600 delegates at stake: Biden needs 51% and Sanders needs 54% of them to win a majority

Updated delegate estimates reflecting our initial estimates from #MississippiPrimary -- which we project Biden winning -- and #MissouriPrimary...

Updated delegate estimates now reflect initial estimates from #MichiganPrimary -- which we project Biden to win

Our initial estimates in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan indicate Biden consolidating his delegate lead over Sanders

To win a majority outright, Biden now needs just half of the approx. 2,500 pledged delegates left to allocate nationwide

Delegates are more important than number of states won, but still quite a map... a sea of Biden in Midwest and South

Orange = Biden
Purple = Sanders

Here's your 10 pm delegates update...

We've allocated about half of delegates at stake tonight, and Biden's margin has increased to 150 delegates so far

Your midnight delegates update: Biden's estimate now at 800 delegates with a lead of 154 delegates over Sanders

About third of delegates at stake tonight left to allocate...

According to my calculations, Biden now needs just under half (49.8%) of remaining delegates nationally for majority

Your 1 am delegates update...

Updated national delegate estimates...
Biden 835
Sanders 683

Biden has slim majority of what we've estimated so far, with about 200 delegates left to allocate in contests held so far...

New national delegate estimates (with more votes in CA):
Biden 846
Sanders 690

Have about 2,300 delegates left to allocate, including from upcoming contests... Biden needs just under half (49.7%) for a delegate majority, while Sanders now needs 57%

Current national delegate estimates for Biden and Sanders: Biden leads by 154 delegates (with nearly 1,700 allocated)...

Another 441 delegates are at stake in three contests still happening today: Florida (219), Illinois (155), Arizona (67)

Updated delegate estimates reflecting initial allocation out of Florida, where Biden is on track to substantially build on his national delegate lead...

Biden now over 1,000 delegates in our national estimates...

(These reflect updated estimates out of Florida and initial estimates out of Illinois, which is leaning Biden with 5% of expected votes counted)

Of the almost 2,100 delegates remaining nationwide, Biden now needs 47% for a majority, and Sanders now needs 60%

Updated national delegate estimates, which now include initial estimates out of Arizona -- which we project Biden winning -- and updated numbers in Florida and Illinois...

We've allocated about two thirds of delegates at stake today -- less than 2,000 left to allocate nationwide

This is where we're leaving our delegate estimates tonight -- we have now allocated over half of delegates nationwide

Comfortably winning three states that finished voting today (AZ, FL, and IL), Biden now leads Sanders by 291 delegates...

Biden is now fewer than 900 delegates away from a majority

He needs 46% of delegates left to be allocated nationwide, while Sanders now needs 61% of them

Updated delegate estimates from (virtual) decision desk...

While Biden is fewer than 900 delegates away from clinching, these postponements make it less likely he'll be able to do so before June...

And it becomes impossible if New York (274 delegates) and Pennsylvania (186 delegates) move their primaries to June

Slightly updated national delegate estimates, based on additional results broken out by congressional districts

Biden needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide for majority but probably won't be able to clinch until June, due to shifting primary calendar

Sanders now needs 62%

Your Friday delegates update:
Biden 1,150
Sanders 860

Biden now 841 delegates away from a majority -- needs 46% of remaining delegates nationwide to clinch, while Sanders needs 62% (still)

For those keeping score at home, here are updated national delegate estimates that include today's results from Alaska...

Updated delegate estimates including Wisconsin's results

Updating nationwide delegate estimates with Wyoming's 14 pledged delegates, of which 10 go to Biden and 4 to Bernie

Updated national delegate estimates, including last night's results from Ohio, where Biden further consolidated lead

Biden now at 1,382 delegates, which is 609 away from a majority...

Updated national delegate numbers, now including Kansas all-mail primary results, where Biden's estimated to pick up 29 of 39 delegates available (77% of vote to Sanders' 23%)

Biden now fewer than 600 delegates away from clinching...

Updated national delegate estimates, now incorporating last night's results in Nebraska, where Biden will win all or nearly all of state's 29 delegates

We now estimate Biden at 1,450 delegates, or 541 away from a majority

(Still can't clinch before June, given current schedule)

Updated national delegate estimates, including tonight's primary results in Oregon, where Biden's on track to pick up lion's share of delegates

Biden's now 477 delegates away from majority; however, Sanders also on track to pick up delegates and potentially delay Biden clinching

Updated national delegate estimates, including Hawaii's ranked-choice primary results (just announced) -- Biden will pick up 16 of Hawaii's 24 delegates and Sanders the remaining 8

Despite suspending campaign, Sanders continuing to win enough votes to earn delegates...

Our current national delegate estimates, including official results from state party conventions held so far: Biden at 1,554 now and 437 delegates away from a majority

Note: Warren & Bloomberg delegates were reallocated to Biden & Sanders in some states, per campaigns' agreement

Getting results from eight presidential primaries tonight: PA, MD, IN, NM, RI, DC, MT, SD

479 total delegates, of which Biden needs 91% to clinch -- may be delayed if Sanders hits threshold in most contests

Should have partial results tonight (with some ballots processed later)

Where things stand as of this morning: Biden 50 delegates away from majority now, but several states still processing ballots (with 92 delegates left to allocate from last night)

Sanders on track to pick up delegates in Pennsylvania and other states, likely delaying Biden clinch

We now estimate Biden with *majority* of pledged delegates needed to clinch Dem nomination

Updates as of late last night with more results trickling in from June 2 contests and Guam

We'll keep tracking, as Sanders still angling to influence party platform (Virgin Islands next!)

Biden clinched nomination several days ago, but we're still tracking delegates to national convention

With most votes counted in Georgia and West Virginia, we now have Biden at 2,121 and Sanders at 1,060

(Other candidates' delegates still being reallocated at state conventions)

@CBSNews Watching KY & NY primaries tonight

With 1,060 delegates, Sanders has ways to go to be able to influence @DNC platform via minority reports at convention

It would require at least 25% of all delegates, so he needs about 20% of pledged delegates remaining (or superdelegate help!)

Updated national delegate estimates, including preliminary allocations in Kentucky and New York (where we may not get primary data from all counties for several more days)

Biden will win lion's share of delegates at stake, but Sanders may increase his total by clearing 15% in NY

Delegate update, including partial returns from Delaware and New Jersey primaries: Biden now at 2,504 nationwide

Biden estimated to win all 21 delegates in his home state of DE and vast majority in NJ

Sanders may clear threshold in NJ (and NY, where ballots still being counted)

Pledged delegates update (remember those?) ahead of next week's Democratic convention...

Biden now at 2,717 pledged delegates, with full allocations in all states and territories (Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Connecticut, plus recent updates in Kentucky, New York, and New Jersey)

@DNC limited role of superdelegates after 2016, but since Biden has more than half of all available delegates (pledged + unpledged), superdelegates eligible to vote on first ballot

3,979 pledged + 770 unpledged = 4,749 delegates total

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