Thread by @FCDOREDGCSD

THREAD: I❤️INNOVATION but...

Family & friends send me links about innovative tech solutions for #globaldev. I disappoint them with my muted enthusiasm.

I 💖tech. We fund brilliant innovation- e.g. in humanitarian w/ partners like @Elrha & @FldRdy bit.ly/2TNtEdX
1/25

UNFINISHED BUSINESS #LeaveNooneBehind

We also fund research tackling enduring, complex problems: extreme poverty, disability exclusion, VAWG, corruption.
There are some openings for tech, but few ‘solutions’, & the need to tackle Tech AND Political constraints is clear.
2/25

#NotALuddite but…

Most tech innovators are pretty grounded.

But i worry about the
<HYPE> around innovation &
<POLLYANNA> techo-optimism
& <RISK-BLINDNESS>

…often by those – in funding, comms – a step removed from the tech.
But I am not a Flat-Earth-data-hater...
3/25

I have seen the birth of tech – e.g. partnering @viswanathkv & team @Safetipin to turn old-school-participatory-tool –women’s safety audits– into an App. Highs, lows, fast'n'slows. Great ideas take time to catch fire. Some never do.
This one did! safetipin.com
4/25

HYPE, HYPE HURRAY!

I have been a Dragon, & pitched in Dragons' Dens/Shark Tanks. Pitching is a performing art, & easy to get carried away with super-optimistic use cases & 'solution' talk.
My concern is rarely the innovators, but people [like me?] & comms, around them…
5/25

HYPERFORMANCE FUEL

Why do we hype? Fearing complex problems, so clinging to idea of a fix? When I drop the B-word* is it social anxiety about keeping up with the innovators? (darn those social norms). Or sour grapes that governance innovations are often dull?
6/25
*Blockchain

THE HYPE CYCLE (ACTUALLY A CURVE)

So I was excited by @DFIDHumRsch's use of the Gartner ‘Hype Cycle’ – accepting that new tech is hyped, but settles at a real world effect some way below ‘Peak of inflated expectation’.

Example? see Blockchain gtnr.it/2vbjn2S
7/25

"IS BLOCKCHAIN THE FUTURE OF..?"

Google that & you will find...

Finance/supply chain mgt/geosector/academic credentials/
all industries/art/food/human rights/real-estate/food safety/smartphones
journalism/storytelling

real answer: ‘maybe a small part of the future’.
8/25

HYPE VENTILATED

So, I am reassured that innovation hype is well recognised. But we still do it, with puffs a bit too much like audition videos on reality TV.
It’s partly perspective – when riding a curve, you don’t know where you sit on it.
😄And tech is super exciting!
9/25

(HYPER) REALITY CHECKS

🤨Seeking out research helps keep feet on the ground, though research takes time, & so there is often a lag between <PITCH> & <EVIDENCE>.

Q: What’s the evidence on ‘drones in development?’
A (BMJ 2019): It’s early days.

gh.bmj.com/content/4/4/e0…
10/25

💡A ‘HYPE KERB’.

The Hype Curve made me think & I mashed up my own version to frame my concerns about tech hype in #globadev. (In innovation terms the hype kerb is somewhere between Indian Jugaad & Japanese Chindogu).

The purple line is the ‘Hype Kerb’ (US=curb).
11/25

HYPE KERB #1: GREATEST THING SINCE…

New tech is hyped as if it going to be <THE> solution to a problem.
Reality bites, promise plummets; but after some years it finds its place on a plateau some distance below peak hype.
Useful, but far from being <THE> ‘solution’.
12/25

KERB #2: WHAT WAS THE PROBLEM AGAIN?

Talk of <SOLUTIONS> can obscure reality of a complex problem. Height of vertical axis (yellow⬆️)= full extent of specific, real world problem. E.g.
-deaths from diarrhoea
-uncorrected myopia
-violence in schools
-ghosts on payroll.

13/25

KERB #3: UNMET NEED

When the innovation reaches its ‘plateau of productivity’, its real-world effect is the area <below> purple line.

Remaining problem (‘unmet need’) is <above> line (green area).

So, clear benefits but still lots of unmet need
#LeaveNooneBehind
14/25

KERB #4: DULL PROGRESS

Innovations are tweaked, combined; with institutional change, new biz models, to keep pushing the plateau up.
e.g. @safetipinapp got Uber to put sensors on dashboards, hugely increasing data on street lighting.

Hats off to tweakers & partners!
15/25

KERB #5: SHADOW OF HYPE

☠️My 1st big concern about innovation hype is that we get so excited that we overlook the real nature of complex problems, decades of learning, & complex effort needed to tackle them. Innovative tech is so much easier and nicer to communicate.
16/25

IN THE SHADOWS A real example from our portfolio:

Tech hype: This smartphone App tells you what you are looking at!

In the shadow: 90% of those needing basic spectacles/eyeglasses do not have them.

@AssistTech2030
17/25

KERB #6: DANGER! FUNCTION CREEP

☠️My 2nd big concern is the <BAD> application of the tech that we hyped, creating new problems for poor & vulnerable people (see downward yellow arrow).

“But technology is neutral!” you cry…but Dragons’ Dens rarely consider such risks.

18/25

FUNCTION CREEPS

@SOAS_ACE rsrch on Digital ID is causing discomfort for ppl (like me) with Pollyanna views of ID in #globadev.
Bad ppl like ID too!



Warning from @histoftech 'gadgetry tends to shift power into the hands of the already privileged’

19/25

KERB #7: LIGHT UP THE SHADOWS

We fund <A LOT> of research at the 'last mile' at top of yellow arrow, those hardest to reach. This includes researching poor people’s access to, & use of new technology (agency, hope, grassroot innovation, but rarely helped by hype).

20/25

21. POLLYANNA USE CASE VS DR. MABUSE CASE

So, there are risks from use cases that focus only on positive, & risks from ignoring function creep.
For fans of German horror (or 80s synth pop) this is my 'Dr Mabuse Case' (master criminal, incl used mass surveillance..)
21/25

🙁we get it! stop moaning! any action?

YES !

💡#1: FIND A PESSIMIST
Recognise reality of hype & bring critical views into <every> discussion of innovation.

If you don’t know any pessimists, get ppl to play role (see de bono’s Black Hat thinking; Red teaming).

22/25

💡#2: ‘REALITY CHECK’ EVERY PITCH

Written & verbal pitches should

1.include clear description of ‘real world problem’ & its scale
2.Use case - your pessimist’s estimate of how much of this problem the innovation can tackle.

3.Risks, Function Creep (Dr Mabuse case)

23/25

💡#3: DUGONGS’ DEN

Make your contest for innovation funding slower moving, measured, honest about the factors that constrain a ‘use case’, risk.

Think of Dugongs pondering amidst the sea grass, not Dragons breathing fire in a den.
nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammal…

24/25

THE END:

INNOVATION: FROM MASTER CLASS TO MODEST CLASS

Be measured & modest.
Yes to innovation! But kerb the hype.
Light up the shadows!
Think worst case, risk, and function creep, as well as super-best case.

peter, gcsd.
personal views - not policy!

25/25