Giles Wilkes Profile picture
After advising No10 and BIS& writing @FT, now specialist partner @flintglobal, senior fellow @instituteforgov looking for authentic ways to improve us

Mar 17, 2020, 10 tweets

Jobs, incomes and businesses: that's actually a reasonably good taxonomy for how to be supporting the economy by Rishi Sunak

£330bn in loan guarantees, up and running by next week, and a "whatever it takes" power in the upcoming Covid Bill

Grants now £25,000

Business rates holiday now for ALL business in the sectors most affected - retail, hospitality

£20bn in one year, high multiple of the cost just last year

Definitely hoping to get #WhateverItTakes trending

Now a three month mortgage holiday. Quick maths - £1500bn in outstanding mortgages, from memory? 3% rates? So £10bn?

I was almost exactly right on the mortgage amount, have no idea on interest rate and didn't factor in repayment amounts, so it could be bigger. But smaller if it's only "distressed" borrowers?

Now @SamCoatesSky has asked if these loans are the thing - what if people can't repay?

Implicitly, the government is assuming/hoping this is V shaped, a Nike Swoosh. But what is the Swoosh is more like a roller coaster? Well HMG may be on the hook for many many billions...

The "can you afford this" question comes in from @GuardianHeather - and the Chancellor says yeah, sure

Fyi my very bodged up model of a fiscal crisis finds a one off bump in debt is just fine. It's a structural hit to growth, tax revenues or spending that we should fear

Rather surprised the PM is doubling down on the British-made ventilator project after what I read in the FT today, but the FT comments section isn't the sum of all wisdom. Maybe this is possible

Both the PM and the Chancellor appeared clear in the press conference that they will not tolerate "quibbles" by insurers about venue closures

Here is what is promised
Hopefully an answer @PatrickGracey can live with?

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