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Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Giles Wilkes
@Gilesyb
After advising No10 and BIS& writing @FT, now specialist partner @flintglobal, senior fellow @instituteforgov looking for authentic ways to improve us
Jul 30 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Reflection on yesterday's big moment from Reeves: this far, there's a pattern of the new government doing what was widely predicted, but still somehow managing to surprise on the upside in their delivery.

We all expected a "shocked face what a mess" moment...1/ It was visible from a distance that the Tories had set aside far too little spending to keep the public realm in a decent state, let alone deliver goodies like extra hospitals.

But the details, the vitriol and clear accusation of dishonesty were 🔥 2/

wp.me/pDsIG-15c
Jun 19 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
When I saw that @IPPR (@GeorgeDibb and @carsjung specifically) had written a report eviscerating the UK's investment record, my first reaction was a shrug and "huh, yeah we know that". But it is well worth your time: 1/ ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow… To start cheekily: it praises the Sunak/criticizes Labour's plans!

"The government’s plans for ‘full expensing’ capital allowances are a step in the right direction"

"a Starmer-led government would cut public investment more than the 2010-24 Conservative administration"
2/
Jun 3 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Since there is nothing else going on, here is a good @IPPR report by @GeorgeDibb et al on Manufacturing and the Green transition

Some thoughts: 1/ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow… They share the Johnsonian Cakeist position that Green Growth is a three-fer - you win at growth, regional balance and environmental policy by going for it.

This would be nice. But: 2/ Image
Apr 15 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Most of us are reasonably convinced that Truss's economic programme (fwiw) was proven to have failed within a month. The market verdict was brutal.

But most policy isn't that clear.

I read a LOT of centre left pamphlet-speak calling for industrial policy ... 1/ which you could machine-write: "the UK needs a green innovative industrial strategy that invests in sectors of the future and cuts pollution while creating green jobs and rebalancing the economy/levelling up. It should borrow to do this/tax the rich".

What I seldom read... 2/
Mar 4 • 33 tweets • 10 min read
The Government has more Industrial Strategy than you can fit on an A2 sheet, a thread. Please tell me what is missing!

An Advanced Manufacturing Plan 1/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65788f51… Which includes the GIGA fund (Green Industries Growth Accelerator)
2/gov.uk/government/new…
Jan 26 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
"Budget blowouts and delays: why the UK struggles with infrastructure"

OK, this is a vitally important and *difficult* topic, and it plays directly into a subject I've been trying to force myself to think about: when markets or planning are better 1/on.ft.com/3S5WnbK This observation crudely suggests to me that the UK has opted for the ever-more-market approach to doing stuff. Issue a tender, that gets sub-contracted and so on in an attempt to stimulate competitive dynamics that somehow produce the best outcome. But it hasn't worked! 2/ Image
Jan 19 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
Remarkably, 15 months ago there was a 49 day government whose actions triggered a bond market panic and the reversal of tens of billions in tax measures.

Even more remarkably, it blamed “Treasury Orthodoxy“ for the country's ills.

So we sat down to investigate 1/16 This is the report @ollybartrum @RhysClyne and I wrote after interviewing dozens of current and former insiders about what this Orthodoxy is, what it is responsible for, how it is implemented in practice, and many sundry issues. 2/

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Dec 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I honestly wonder if the Rwanda policy deserves study as the stupidest ever to be pushed in the UK.

Perfectly calibrated to repel centrists; wind up furious right-wingers; and obviously do next to nothing about the actual issue. Also wasting govt time massively. Incredible. The Conservatives are literally going to waste years arguing about loyalty to the Rwanda Policy as a mark of purity. Attacking people who call it bullshit. For something is ineffective at its very core.
Nov 22, 2023 • 34 tweets • 7 min read
Hunt is up and speaking. Highlights avoidance of a recession and inflation falling, which he credits to the avoidance of "short term measures" such as not paying wage rises "to the unions", or spending £28bn on green measures.

The attempted dividing lines are clear ... 1/ Onto @OBR_UK forecasts:

Here are some of the key numbers as of March Image
Nov 2, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
OK, I will reveal my bias: this is a great read covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/upl… And this issue of Whitehall Entropy cannot be repeated enough - even if often we are not talking about deliberate sabotage (the level of officials I dealt with always wanted things to happen, that's what gets you ahead) Image
Sep 18, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
My overall verdict:

- Truss is more sincere than I expect. She really, really believes this stuff.

- Against that, she is madder than I expected. She really, really believes this stuff.

Some of what she believes is internally consistent but still nuts imho: 1/ - Repeating, on the basis of one economic outfit's work, the idea that CT cuts more than pay for themselves is just insane, and a worrying attitude towards contrary advice

- Insisting that fracking and opening up the N Sea could have avoided the energy price spike too ...2/
Sep 15, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Here's my positive take on the high income gap London holds over the rest of the UK - 1/on.ft.com/45S4Xkg London and the broader South East constitute one of the best economic clusters in the world. Read @tylercowen comments from an FT interview a year or so back. And it really isn't at the expense of other regions. There is no extraction game here! 2/
Aug 29, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
OK, so if you are interested in public policy you will want to check in with @nesta_uk 's 2040 project, and this handy guide to the glitchy and unfair tax system

But it got me thinking about one thing in particular 1/options2040.co.uk/tax-and-public… How big is our state as a share of GDP? Well, if you go off tax take, you get around 33% - but it will rise.

HOWEVER, spending is more like 42% of GDP, but we don't have a 9% deficit (honestly) - because our REVENUES are about £105bn higher... 2/
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Aug 9, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
This is a shockingly important story 1/ via @edwardwhitenzon.ft.com/44Ygk9H China's incredible growth into key industries for the green transition is the key fact for Western industrial strategists, whether you take a security angle, prosperity angle or environmental angle 2/ Image
Jul 4, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
I think Carsten has made a useful contribution here - call it The Case for Extreme Optimism. He's asked me and a few others to comment, so here goes.

In short: he says if we boost public investment by £30bn a year, we might increase NGDP by £149bn a year by the end. 1/ This is because fiscal multipliers are judged to be about 1 according to IMF-approved papers like this or this https://t.co/wcsWafJeKj

When a fiscal multiplier is 1, an extra spending impulse of £10bn generates *permanent* higher GDP of £10bn! 2/imf.org/en/Publication…
imf.org/en/Publication…
May 27, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
The rise of the *crud* economy (DYAC): here a quick thread on what I mean.

When trying to explain slow growth, I keep the increasing complexity and intermediate nature of economic activity. So much work seems ... valueless? Or not really related to higher productivity 1/ Take this example from a recent @matt_levine email - lawyers and bankers, all highly paid, fighting one another in order to stiff or protect creditors. And so many other lawyers paid to write the contracts to try to avoid this! 2/ Image
May 25, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Some quick thoughts on Rachel Reeves' "New Business Model for Britain" labourtogether.uk/sites/default/… some of them original, not all: 1/ First, I think it frames where Labour would want the 2024 election debate to take place: a comparison of Conservative 14 year rule againt what Labour did do, and what they might do in future 2/ Image
May 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Quick thread on my piece about why the government needs an *unapologetic* industrial strategy.

Currently, they can't even make up their minds on whether there is one. Hunt says yes; Badenoch says no. Meanwhile the USA steams ahead 1/ But the government has loads going on that walks and quacks like an industrial strategy. Chosen "growth" sectors. Big tech bets on the likes of quantum. A host of targets ...2/ Image
Apr 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
In the nicest possible way, I need to say this thread is rather misconceived, but in a somewhat educational way. In particular, it feels like there is a nominal-real confusion going on .... 1/ By which I refer to this tweet, reflecting on how HMG receipts are up 10%. This is because nominal growth is up very sharply - the economy is *not* in sharp slowdown in that sense. Nor if you look at unemployment. 2/
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Apr 19, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This is a genuinely fascinating policy problem. We've had the world's #1 or #2 financial centre for centuries, yet apparently cannot get it to invest in its home market. Despite this being noticed for years... And attempts made: 1/- on.ft.com/3LaQmIB @katie_martin_fx Attempts to pool pension funds; new state-backed funds like the Patient Capital Fund; private things like the Business Growth Fund; hugely generous tax incentives, usually with "entrepreneur" in the name; etc etc etc. But what really intrigues me is this: 2/
Mar 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Follow Tim for that rare combo of fiscal realism and austerity defence. This point is correct, insofar as anti-austerians often overstate their case. But I would also add the context I provide in this post. Post GFC growth was poor, everywhere ...1/
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2022/12/13/wha… Image The UK slowdown was overdetermined - battered banks, reliance on sectors that had grown too fast before, and plenty of external events (oil prices up, euro-crisis, etc) meant a 2011-12 slowdown was fairly likely, even before any fiscal effect 2/