Thread by @Convertbond

Wall St. Equity Research and Tesla

Mar 2020: $400 “Sell”
Feb 2020: $800 “Buy”
June 2019: $180 “Sell”
Dec 2018: $380 “Buy”
April 2018: $245 “Sell”
June 2017: $390 “Buy”

#Comedy

Unfortunately, on Wall St there’s job safety in crowds. Group think overdoses are very common. Most of the street was falling all over themselves trying to upgrade Tesla in February, now the avalanche of downgrades is here.

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Tesla up near $700 pre-market, they did it again (see above). After the mountain of March downgrades, equity is up 100% from the recent lows.

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*TESLA EXTENDS DECLINE AFTER MUSK SAYS STOCK ($760) PRICE TOO HIGH - Bloomberg

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Tesla equity nears $900, here come the analyst upgrades...

Tesla $1010 today, close to 200% off the March lows. All the Bears have become Bulls, you know what that means...



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Selling at the Highs, what a novel idea...

Morgan Stanley downgrades Tesla to Underweight, lowers price target to $650. Goldman to Neutral...

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Tesla Deliveries with the stock at $1000:

Q2: 66k
Q1: 89k
Q4: 115k

*Q2 figure is based on Street analysts’ estimates, Tesla data.

At $1130 vs. Goldman's 12-month price target of $950

*downgraded to Neutral from Buy this month.

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In early April, the Tesla, August $1200 strike calls traded at $5, last week at $36, and today $143, a 2600% return. Of course few would have held the trade that long, but it's remarkable how cheap upside was trading during the dark days of the sell-off.

Front-Run

S&P 500 inclusion needs > 3 consecutive quarters of profitability, thus TSLA has NEVER been in the index. With a total enterprise value now close to $300B, and Tesla reports on July 22., some are betting the people at S&P are eager to add.

By buying up Tesla now, speculators are forcing the S&P Indexes to give the stock a higher and higher weighting. Thus, ETFs / Indexes will be forced to pay up, buying even more shares. Then the hot money exits, leaving indexes holding the bag. Thoughts?