Lawrence McDonald Profile picture
Father of two, Former Head of Macro Strategy Soc Gen, NY Times Bestselling Author, Long-time @RealVision @CNBC Contributor, founder of the @BearTrapsReport
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Jan 14 4 tweets 2 min read
Dear Mr. Powell,

Close to $11T US Treasury bonds maturing - next 24 months, need to be refinanced.

Funding Rate

Current: 1.6% to 1.9%
New: 3.4% to 4.6%

*interest as a % of the budget explodes from 8% to nearly 17%.

**interest (blue) below is a very conservative estimate. On the House GOP's budgeting-cutting enthusiasm -- the goal of cutting $130 billion from discretionary approps without touching defense or veterans' health means freezing those two items and cutting everything else by 21% immediately. That's just not realistic.

via @Brian_Riedl
Jan 8 6 tweets 2 min read
Interest on $1M in US T-Bills

Jan 2023: $46k
Jan 2022: $3k

* “56% of Americans can't cover a $1,000 emergency expense with savings” CNBC, January 2022. Wealthy investors just got a colossal pay raise vs. the lower / middle class consumer up against inflation. It’s clear, we have two economies in the USA, any company facing the bottom 60% of consumers is taking on encroaching stress conditions while the high net worth consumer is doing just fine up a against the brutal tax that is inflation.

(2) Image
Oct 26, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Colossal Leverage - Underneath the Surface - Liability Driven Investing - LDI turned £5oobn of
underlying assets into £1.5tn of invested money. “The depth of leverage in the system, which is in multiple places that are difficult to
track.” Amundi CIO @FT Dear Clueless Central Bankers - over longer and longer periods of time - when you don’t allow the business cycle to function and suppress the natural - “true cost” of capital, you incentivize and perpetuate this garbage. Don’t kid yourselves, this is NOT an isolated case.

Oct 22, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Friday was a Significant day - Bank of Japan intervention and a Federal Reserve Policy path shift, it was an inside job. Three things you need to know:… Image The fix is in -- What is driving equities as we approach the US midterm elections?

Last Few Weeks

DJIA +15%
S&P +11%
Nasdaq +10%

*Dow Industrials are just 11% off all-time highs. Massive short covering in QQQ names - with a colossal rotation in the works. Image
Sep 28, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Be careful trading stocks when major developed market bonds are trading like this. There is NOTHING more dangerous, than academics who have NEVER taken a professional risk, never actually sat in a risk-taking seat - but now sitting on trillions of pounds and dollars of risk. State of Play - We had a three standard deviation move in UK rates and the BOE´s chief economist was saying "let markets be markets" yesterday with pension funds imploding.

Aug 18, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
The Art of a Gamma Squeeze

1. Buy out of the money - YOLO calls in SIZE.

2. Force Dealers to buy stock to hedge the calls they sold you.

4. Pump up the bullish sentiment with bs

5. Find more greater fools

6. Dump your shares before they do.

*Jay Powell´s U.S. equity market. .@GaryGensler

Nobody and I mean nobody, is going to call for taking a look at the options market. We'll get 'hey, isn't that something..." With sooo much money in options, they cut commissions to zero for stocks -- options are the LAST cash cow for "discount" brokers.

Jun 30, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
The Madness of "Group Think" has no bounds... Image Think M2, 40% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020 - 2021.

*Federal Reserve US Money Supply M2

Dec 2021: $21.8T
Jan 2020: $15.4T

$6.4T / $15.4T = 41%. Image
Jun 22, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
Econ 101

What happens when you subsidize demand and arrest supply? Anyone? Global developed market politicians have spent the last five years attacking fossil fuel, production, exploration, capex - through disinvestment, regulations, and sanctions. From ESG to green new deals, globally - investment is $2T+ below the previous 2014 trend line.
Jun 21, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Here Come the Sheep

"We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded." Goldman.

*Just like the race 3-4 weeks ago -- who can be the economist to predict the most rate hikes -- Now it´s -- "I can be the one to predict the worst recession" Bloomberg Economic "Consensus" - the Forecast

2022 GDP Outlook

Today: 2.6%
6 Months Ago: 3.8%
10 Months Ago: 5.0%

*With Q1 negative and Atlanta Fed being near 0% for Q2, you need a colossal Q3 and Q4 to get to 2.6%.
May 20, 2022 13 tweets 3 min read
One Year Ago - "Yellen advises G7 to "Go Big" in stimulus measures." May 2021: Yellen says we must go big on stimulus.

October 2022: Yellen says inflation fight remains top priority after hot September report.

*Hundreds of billions deposited into US bank accounts, 43% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2021. Image
Apr 14, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Adam Smith on the Risks of Globalization (1)

"Every individual endeavor to employ his capital as near home as he can, and consequently as much as he can in the support of domestic industry; provided always that he can thereby obtain the ordinary, ... ..or not a great deal less than the ordinary profits of stock. Thus, upon equal or nearly equal profits, every wholesale merchant naturally prefers the home-trade to the foreign trade of consumption, and the foreign trade of consumption to the carrying trade.

Mar 13, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
Federal Reserve vs Inflation CPI

QE1: Nov 08 - Mar 10

1.07% to 2.31%

*$1700B assets buys

QE2: Nov 10 - Jun 11

1.14% to 3.56%

*$600B asset buys

QE3: Sep 12 - Oct 14

1.99% to 1.66%

*$1500B asset buys

QE4: Mar 20 - Mar 22

1.54% to 7.91%

*$6000B asset buys

w Eric Peters 2022 Wall Street research consensus - the end of this program would have little impact on stock prices - if anything they raised their equity price targets for this full year. US Equities were in correction BEFORE the Ukraine invasion.

*47% of the Nasdaq, off -50% pre-war.
Jan 22, 2022 9 tweets 4 min read
1. Over 28% of all dollars ever created were done so in 2020-2021

2. Inflation - highest since 1982 as consumer prices jump 7% in 2021

3. Bitcoin is close to 50% off again

*Surgeon general warning - long bitcoin is actually a SHORT on US equity market volatility, every time. Close to 1060 new lows inside the Nasdaq Composite Friday, the 3rd highest daily result since Lehman.

*Bitcoin trades at $34,042 down from $68,991 in November. Gold up 1% in 2022.

**45% of Nasdaq equities are off 50% from their highs.

Via @BearTrapsReport

Dec 26, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
U Michigan Economic Confidence vs. Rate Hikes from the Fed

*We have had THREE sub 80 readings from the consumer since August - how does the Fed hike rates into this?

cc @nfergus @econjared @carlquintanilla @Austan_Goolsbee @jasonfurman Image U Michigan- “Consumer Sentiment remained largely unchanged in late March at the same diminished level recorded at mid month. Inflation has been the primary cause of rising pessimism, with an expected year-ahead inflation rate at 5.4%, the highest since November 1981. “..

Oct 18, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read

*GS in a rush to sell bonds, lock-in yield says a lot about where they think interest rates are moving. What do they know? Apple’s $AAPL Luca Maestri is the bond king, this gentleman knows when to sell bonds. Image
Oct 13, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read

Here is a look at the 2021-2041 “Demand”Picture:

+One billion human beings in China without an automobile.

+One billion human beings in India without air conditioning. Last 30 years we have taken 7 million manufacturing jobs out of the US.

Bad News: Ghost towns litter the rust belt, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania have been decimated. Opioid deaths up 1000%.

Good News: We lifted 500m people globally out of extreme poverty. Davos smiles.
Jul 2, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
US Employment Total Full Time Jobs

2021: 126m**
2020: 114m
2019: 132m
2018: 129m
2017: 126m**
2016: 123m

*close to 6m jobs below 2019 levels, Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

via @BearTrapsReport Full-time jobs rolling over? What gives?
Jul 2, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
U6 Unemployment in the USA 9.8% is all you need to know, still, nearly 7 million people are NOT in the labor force than were in, Jan 2020. Since 2007, US full-time jobs are +4 million with a population +32 million. This is one of the MOST important macro-political economic facts that exist today, with colossal implications.

cc @carlquintanilla @andrewrsorkin @elerianm @nfergus @Neil_Irwin @gilliantett @DougKass
Jun 28, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Oil is back on the 2018 highs with the US rig count left in the dust, handing control over price to the Russians and Saudi's comes with a high price.

*US oil production is -15% off 2020 levels. Stealth middle-class tax hike is on stage here. Image Sending Putin $36 million a day

The US imported 487,000 b/d of Russian petroleum products in the first 11 months of 2021 vs. product imports of roughly 2.4 million b/d. - EIA

"US reliance on Russian oil hits record high despite souring ties" - S&P Platts

Jun 2, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
Dear $AMC Shareholders, Credit Markets are trying to tell you something, will you listen?

New Post - AMC 5.75% due 2025 are offered at 81 cents on the dollar. Meanwhile, the stock is trading at all-time highs. The disconnect indeed is very telling...… AMC JUMPED MOST INTRADAY SINCE JANUARY - Bloomberg
Mar 28, 2021 4 tweets 2 min read
We have had 3 recent LTCM like blowups:

March 2020: Relative Value Interest Rate Swaps

January 2021: Melvin Capital

March 2021: Archegos

*Common denominator? Massive Leverage.

Join @andrewrsorkin and @Convertbond tomorrow on @SquawkCNBC at 6:45am for the backstory. Nomura $2B hit on tape

Nomura is a small prime broker, CS is a big one, MS / GS as well, CS must have the biggest hit relative to Nomura at $2B - we have to assume $8B to $12B hit across them all?

CDS was telling us something Friday.. Credit leads equities..