Thread by @NatSecAnswers

QUESTION: Mexico's #drugcartels are serious threats to U.S. #NationalSecurity. So, what are the main implications of #COVID19 on Mexico’s drug trade; particularly on Mexican cartels? We asked @GCorreaCabrera Ph.D. Assoc. Professor @ScharSchool. Follow this thread for the answer.

ANSWER: "Some security experts and other analysts foresee a rapid adjustment of Mexican drug cartels to the new market conditions, alleging that these groups are willing to take enormous risks and

normally adapt successfully to adverse circumstances by taking advantage of existing opportunities. Without considering other factors, some pose positive scenarios for drug trafficking organizations, alleging that these enterprises will transform and diversify their activities,

while generating higher levels of violence, crime and instability. Notwithstanding the opportunities that some perceive for Mexican cartels, as a matter of fact, they are illicit transnational enterprises whose business performance will be determined by...

the laws of supply and demand in international drug markets. In the era of the COVID-19 pandemic, we anticipate a very severe decline of the economies in all countries of the world.

This economic catastrophe will not discriminate between formal/informal, licit/illicit businesses. The big economic loses that drug trafficking organizations will suffer in this context, might lead them to look for alternative markets.

This will further a brutal confrontation among them for access to fewer and smaller markets in an era of crisis. We could then expect higher levels of violence due to much greater competition among the cartels."

You can learn more about @GCorreaCabrera's work here: schar.gmu.edu/about/faculty-…

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