Thread by @AndrewM_Fischer

#Belgium is in the US press crosshairs after yesterday’s #TrumpPressConference w #DrBirx on #COVID19

So, I must repeat: Belgian numbers incl suspected untested cases, mostly in care homes, which acct for ~1/2 deaths (2/3 yesterday). The other countries on the list do not. 1/n

So you would need to maybe double the numbers of the others to make comparable.

It is in fact a reflection of strength of the Belgian health system, not an indictment of it, that these cases are reported and that the system is also transparent and honest about them. 2/n

As noted here, Belgium is not overestimating deaths, but the other countries are underestimating:
plus.lesoir.be/295071/article…

More generally, this is a classic stat reporting bias with better functioning systems, that report more because they are functioning well. 3/n

A well functioning universal health system tends to report more deaths because it is more effective at keeping track of infection and mortality, etc, vs weaker systems that miss a lot of deaths because of lack of capacity, fragmentation, lack of coverage and access, etc. 4/n

It is similar to abortions: more reported in countries that legalise abortion, not bc there are less where they are criminalised, but bc reporting is suppressed. Or more suicides reported where less shame is assoc'd w suicide vs eg Catholic countries, where reporting repressed.