Demand for the ECB's weekly bridge LTROs on the rise again, to €19bn this week and €276bn in total.
All (T)LTRO outstanding liquidity now up to €910bn ahead of the June operation, when the one trillion mark could be exceeded. (1/n)
All ECB (T)LTRO numbers in one table. (2/n)
A first tentative breakdown of (L)TRO by country. Huge caveats due to scarce data (Italy, Germany, Spain, Portugal through March; my estimates through April).
1) French banks likely contributed a lot to the rise (~30%)
2) Italian & Spanish banks can borrow more than €150bn each
Very rough estimates based on the observed patterns in GE (through 3 April)/IT/SP/PT (through end-March), and assuming all bridge LTRO are rolled into June TLTRO. We'll get the full picture with the ECB's disaggregated balance sheet on 5 May. (4/n)
With all these caveats in mind, here's my estimated breakdown of (L)TLTRO liquidity by country, including the remaining borrowing capacity ahead of the June TLTRO. (5/n)
TLTRO matter for the real economy, and for the banks.
Remember NIRP? The "cost" has risen to €10bn, but net of tiering (€4.7bn) and TLTRO (€3.2bn), it's €2.1bn.
If the ECB raised the tiering multiplier, the cost of negative policy rates could be lowered to... ZERO. /end
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