Thread on #VPselection:
Lets go over how VP's are selected leading up to every candidate for 2020
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The political goal for VP is to strengthen the presidential candidate by:
1. Covering a weakness of the candidate
2. Adding diversity
3. Giving a regional advantage
1/7
Weaknesses:
VP's have added value. We can look at 2008. When Obama ran he was inexperienced, so he selected then Senator Biden who had excellent relations on the hill and a lot of foreign policy experience. Both were aimed at covering a perceived weakness of Obama.
2/7
Diversity:
Has become much more relevant in recent years. only 2 (major party) VP nominees have not been male. This was 1984 with Geraldine Ferraro and 2008 Sarah Palin.
However, a candidates 'diversity ' would often be taken into account. Things like language, religion 3/7
is also often taken into account. Trump's selection of Mike Pence in 2016 was in part to broaden his appeal to evangelical voters.
Regional advantage:
Somewhat overblown, but often part of the logic. If you pick a VP from a crucial swing state, you may be able 4/7
to win a couple more votes and just edge out the win. This is often why people from Florida are named as strong candidates. The data indicates that this effect is quite marginal and that it is of limited benefit.
What is much more important is that a VP nominee cannot 5/7
be a senator or governor at the same time. This means that a VP will have to resign his/her seat which can have further political ramifications.
Over to 2020.
@JoeBiden has said he has two criteria:
- VP is a woman
- VP is ready on day 1 to take over the job.
6/7
Tactically he has some areas to cover:
- The progressive wing is unhappy with Biden
- Latin-x voters tend to favor Sanders over Biden
- The Blue firewall (PA, MA, WI) is the easiest way to victory
- Biden is old, whoever he selects is the likely 2024 nominee
Now, tierlist.
Here is a list of VP candidates, divided into top mid and bottom tier:
Top:
- Elisabeth Warren
- Kamala Harris
- Amy Klobuchar
Mid:
- Stacy Abrams
- Gretchen Whitmer
- Catherine Cortez-Masto
- Tammy Baldwin
Low:
- Val Demmings
- Tammy Duckworth
- Michelle Lujan Grisham
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