1. lots of graphs showing floating storage/oilonwater have popped on my timeline in last week. Problem is that they underestimate oilonwater and overestimate floating storage
The problem is they do not take into account the intentions of the seller of the crude oil
#OOTT
2. They do not take into account correctly what is a distressed cargo.
A distressed cargo is a cargo that a seller intends to sell immediately but has not been able to. The seller has been forced to load the cargo but continues to try to sell.
3. Floating storage is the intention of loading oil on a boat and holding it for a period of time before selling. The cargo will be sold at some point in the future when the seller decides to put it in the market.
4. in other words floating storage is oil taken out of the market where as distressed cargoes remain in the market.
What it does is underestimates the amount of oil available market in the short term and overestimates the amount of oil in the future/longer term.
5. Much of the falling in floating storage is likely to have been distressed cargoes being sold rather than floating storage falling.
The whole situation is messed up because the terms that ship tracking uses are different from the actual intentions of the sellers.
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