Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OOTT

Most recents (24)

مطلب امروزم با تيتر "پازل استراتژيك نفتي" در صفحه اول روزنامه اعتماد منتشر شده است. مي توانيد در لينك زير بخوانيد. در #رشته_توییت زير هم قابل خواندن است: etemadnewspaper.ir/fa/main/detail…پازل-استراتژيك-نفتي

#OOTT #OPEC
١-با يك نگاه مي‌توان نوشت:«ببينيد وضعيت صنعت نفت ايران به كجا رسيده است كه وزير نفت آن درمراسم امضاي قرارداد ساخت پمپ! آن هم با ارزش كمتر از 50 ميليون يورو! شركت مي‌كند.وزيري كه پيش از اين در مراسم امضاي قراردادهاي پروژه‌هاي مهم كه ارزش چند صدميليون يورو يا ميليارد دلاري داشت،..
٢-...شركت مي‌كرد.» قرارداد ساخت و خدمات پشتيباني الكتروپمپ‌هاي «طرح انتقال نفت خام گوره- جاسك» امروز بين شركت «مهندسي و توسعه نفت» (متن) به عنوان كارفرما و شركت‌هاي «پمپ‌هاي صنعتي ايران»، «پمپيران» و «پتكو» مجموعا به ارزش 48 ميليون يورو امضا مي‌شود...
Read 17 tweets
Aramco Prod. Thread: High-Freq. Oil Prod. data & further insights building on podcast w/@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr …going to simplify some stuff (I just don’t have the space)…will cite where I still have the links #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape

spreaker.com/user/ryanraysr…
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 1) Does our data align with official Aramco statements? To be clear, as we have shared with clients (last Sunday/Monday/Tuesday) and the media (later on), so far, our High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor’s data aligns with Aramco’s official statements #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 2) about how fast/when prod. at various facilities was restored. Notably, we detected Khurais prod. w/in 24 hours of the attacks (worldoil.com/news/2019/9/20…) and we detected 50%+ of total prod. from affected facilities returning during the couple days #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
Read 42 tweets
1. Tweet thread. Some thoughts

Can the Saudi's get back to 9.8mbpd of crude production?

Prior to the attack the Saudi's were producing 9.8mbpd it was broken down as follows
Abqaiq: 4.5mbpd
Khurais: 0.7mbpd
Other fields: 4.6mbpd.

#OOTT
2. What is the spare capacity in the system.

The maximum capacity: 12mbpd
Abqaiq: 4.8mbpd
Kurais: 1.45mbpd
Other Fields: 5.75mbpd

That means that the spare capacity from the other fields are 1.15mbpd.
3. So if Reuters are correct and Khurais and Abqaiq have recovered 75% to 80% or 4.3mbpd. That means if Saudis can increase the spare capacity of the other fields then Saudi can produce up to 10.05mbpd (5.75mbpd other field spare capacity and 4.3mbpd through Khurais and Abqaiq).
Read 11 tweets
CHART OF THE DAY: The sudden loss of 5.7m b/d of #oil production is the single largest outage the market has ever sufferes (larger in volume than the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti output in the 1990 Gulf War, and the loss of Iranian oil in the 1979 Islamic Revolution) #OOTT
Of course, those other outages lasted for several month, so their cumulative pact was huge. Key here is how quickly Aramco can restart production (either through repairs, bypasses or increasing output elsewhere, notably its offshore fields in the Persian Gulf) #OOTT
Also, important to note that the overall oil market was a lot smaller in 1990 and 1979, so a smaller outage in volume terms (barrels per day) could have a much larger impact when considered as % of global supplies | #OOTT
Read 3 tweets
1. biggest problem with releasing from US SPR is the crude is in the wrong place for refineries in the short term.

First, It will take 2 weeks for the first SPR crude to hit the market after Trump permitted its release.

#OOTT
2. The second: most similar crude from other producers will already have been allocated making it difficult to cover any short fall in Saudi crude until the November programs.
3. Third Literally if you look at a map Saudi Arabia is right in the centre of oil logistics. The US is not. it is at the extreme. For a importing country it is not a big problem but as a producer it is a problem being at the extreme.
Read 8 tweets
More details on Abqaiq (as reported by @energyaspects): Attacks caused shut-in of 5.7 mb/d of crude production (58% of current output), 2 bcf/d of gas output (18% of annual average domestic gas sales) and over 0.5 mb/d of ethane and NGLs output (50% of current production). #oott
Attacks damaged parts of 7 mb/d Abqaiq processing facility and another plant that handles output from the 1.2 mb/d Khurais field. Although redundant processing capacity should enable some of the affected output to return quickly, a full restoration will likely take weeks.
Saudi crude contains H2S & must be processed to make it fit for transport through pipelines or processing in refineries. EA understands that at least 1 of 7 stabilisation trains at Abqaiq has been severely damaged while 8-10 of the 18 desulphurisation towers are out of action
Read 10 tweets
The drone attack on Saudi Arabia has an important impact on the country's oil infrastructure, but we should not exaggerate its impact on world supply

Open thread #OOTT #SaudiArabia #DroneAttacks
1) Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country with the largest spare capacity. Although the drone attack impacts 5% of global supply, it also comes at a time when supply glut was evident, global inventories are large and substitution is relatively easy.
2) The IEA estimates the ‘call on OPEC’ at 28.3 mbd in 1H20. This is a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d compared to its previous forest and a substantial 1.4 mb/d below OPEC’s August output.
Read 9 tweets
Houthi fighters in Yemen have claimed two drone attacks on Saudi #Aramco factories in Abqaiq and Khurais provinces which sparked large fires. Saudi interior ministry spokesman says the fires in the state oil company have been brought under control
Abqaiq plays a pivotal role in Aramco's day-to-day operations. #Saudi Aramco says #Abqaiq is the company's largest oil processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world saudiaramco.com/en/creating-va…
#SaudiArabia is shutting down about half of its #oil output after apparently coordinated drone strikes hit facilities in what #Yemen’s Houthi rebels described as one of their largest-ever attacks inside the kingdom according to @WSJ & @Reuters wsj.com/articles/drone…
Read 20 tweets
Saudi Arabia says it has contained a fires after two large #oil facilities were attacked with drones: the Abqaiq processing center and the Khurais oilfield (video is Abqaiq) | #OOTT #SaudiArabia 🇸🇦 ⛽️🛢 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Abqaiq is perhaps the *world’s most important* oil installation. According to the @EIAgov, the plant has a capacity of >7 million b/d. “Most of the oil produced in the country [Saudi Arabia] is processed at Abqaiq before export or delivery to refineries” eia.gov/beta/internati…
This what @Aramco says about the Abqaiq plant: “As the company's largest oil processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world, Abqaiq plays a pivotal role in our day-to-day operations.”
Read 4 tweets
1/Here is why you [the market] and the @IEA have got it wrong on #IMO2020.
This is what a 'little disruption' may entail....
#OOTT
@IEA 2/ #IMO2020 crunch time for #oil product balances coming in Dec/Jan not Apr20 (as per IEA). No @IMOHQ derogations/no delays. Market is telling us so as prompt HSFO cracks collapse.
#OOTT
@IEA @IMOHQ 3/ #IMO2020 compliance is being way underestimated by @IEA. Not worth the risk for shippers. Problem with the 0.5% VLSFO alternative is that it will be available, but not compatible. Not worth the risk. Shippers will go for Marine Gasoil (MGO) in size until comfortable.
#OOTT
Read 7 tweets
This agreement between #China & Iran is one of most important #geopolitical developments of the year & its outcomes will reverberate beyond the geopolitics of energy field

▪️ $280bn to be invested by China in #Iran's oil, gas & petrochemicals sectors 1/

petroleum-economist.com/articles/polit…
- China will get minimum guaranteed discount of 12% to any oil, gas & petchems products that it'll buy; plus another 6 to 8%
-China to speed up development of #Phase 11 of South Pars gas field -from which Total had withdrawn, in response to US sanctions
-Also, production from 2/
from Iran's West Karoun oil fields to be increased by addit' 500,000bl/d by end of 2020
-China's imports of Iranian oil to stay high, even to be increased=>a continuous undermining factor of US sanctions policy

-China can delay the payment of Iranian oil, gas and petchems 3/
Read 7 tweets
If I tell google I am going to Kalamata, the map will draw my route. The machine doesn't know my real intentions only knows what I tell it. Therefore, looking at the AIS of VLCC Adrian Darya 1 we know what the crew has told the computer not the real intended destination! #OOTT
It is a common process in the shipping world! When the final destination of a vessel is not fully decided or there is other reasons to throw people off a destination in the general direction is put into the system, while the operators of the tell the crew what to do.
Example! Many tankers come into the Middle East Gulf awaiting orders. While coming it they show their destination as Basrah, pretty much the northest part of the Gulf, because the crew is not aware of the load port. Eventually that may be Ras Tanura and the system gets updated.
Read 3 tweets
And so it begins.
New AIS update: Iranian flag.
The vessel is now signaling that it is underway. There's less than a nautical mile to go before crossing the EU/Gibraltar maritime border. #GRACE1 #AdrianDarya1 #OOTT
Read 197 tweets
India is meant to be the world's fastest-growing coal market.

But investment fell 90% last year, to the point that only one (state-backed) generator got new loans.

This is the beginning of the end in coal's last redoubt (thread):
bloomberg.com/amp/opinion/ar…
Coal generation is already in terminal decline in the U.S. and Europe.

The market is disappearing, according to the CEO of Colombia's Cerrejón, probably the best coal mine supplying countries bordering the Atlantic: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

And in China we're around the peak.
India is thought to be different. @IEA reckons is grows by 3.9% a year to 2023. @BloombergNEF, which tends to be more skeptical about fossil fuels demand, sees coal-fired generation rising by ~50% by 2030:
Read 11 tweets
1/11 on DUCs:

Common view suggests that, even without higher rig counts, lower 48 production of 8.5 mb/d can grow this year by running down drilled but uncompleted wells - or DUCs - inventories of more than 8,000 wells.
#oott
2/11 What are DUCs?

DUCs are the result of modern division of labour. A baseload inventory of DUCs therefore will always be present due to the scheduling of proppants, water, frac crews and other requirements.
3/11 More DUCs?

Recently, the ratio of DUC wells to completions has been rising. Producers build DUC inventories in low price environments—such as the weak Midland price environment of H2 18 related to pipeline constraints—and complete them at more attractive prices later. #oott
Read 12 tweets
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:

So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?

Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.

However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Read 13 tweets
The EIA'S Weekly Petroleum Status Report provides weekly estimates of U.S. crude oil supply, including a measure of how well the supply of crude oil and the disposition of crude oil balance with each other. This measure is called the "adjustment". #OOTT bit.ly/32tS2od
If the reported supply and disposition of crude oil balanced perfectly each week, the adjustment would equal zero. For several reasons, however, this is rarely the case. Hence the need for the adjustment.
Weekly U.S. crude oil supply and disposition data are based on a combination of EIA survey data, U.S. CBP data, and modeled estimates. All statistical samples using survey data have small but unavoidable imprecisions, and model estimated data’s precision can vary.
Read 19 tweets
14. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
Wrong US policies in the Middle East. Sanctions against Iran. Sanctions used by the USA as a war weapon🤨👇🏼
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world? 🤨👇🏼
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1116293…
Read 202 tweets
#WTI price action towards $58,25 following #OPEC+ meeting #OOTT
#OPEC #OOTT #WTI price went up 5 minutes after scheduled meeting at 13:00 before moving towards $58,25 with a 5 moves down.
If we consider #OPEC posture, $58,75 should have provided support imho. But it didn't. The fall retraced 0.618 Fibo
Read 19 tweets
Thanks to @planetlabs satellite imagery capture this morning, we can see that the fire aboard the #FrontAltair has now been extinguished, but we can also see a massive hole. Thankfully, such tankers have dual-layered hulls & multiple storage compartments. #OOTT
@planetlabs In addition to that, we can also see from @MarineTraffic maritime data that both tankers are currently being tugged towards Fujairah, UAE. #FrontAltair #KokukaCourageous #OOTT
Good morning! We may be away from our desks this AM but the @MarineTraffic app is clearly showing progress as both tankers are being tugged into the anchorages of Fujairah and/or Khor Fakkan.
Read 4 tweets
Here is the first @NASA satellite image taken this morning of (what seems to be based on AIS pos) the #FrontAltair tanker. We had to enhance the original. We noted the distress call times as reported by @katiemcque. A couple of tugboats in the area have diverted to assist. #OOTT
This is the original satellite image. We're waiting for additional sources.
Data captured by @esa (delivered via @sentinel_hub) shows a 25km long smoke plume blowing west at 05:49 UTC (09:49 local time). That's 3.5 hours after initial distress call. Also, in three days time, weather forecast has #CycloneVayu approaching the area at 160km/h.
Read 13 tweets
and off we go #EnergyTwitter! May the thread start! 💡

Did You Know: To provide vital #oil across the English Channel after the #DDay landings, within months secret #pipelines were unwound from massive spools to reach French ports.
Following the #DDay invasion– June 6, 1944 – Allied forces would need vast quantities of #petroleum to continue the advance into #Europe. Allied leaders also knew that petroleum tankers trying to reach French ports would be vulnerable to #Luftwaffe attacks...
A top-secret “Operation #PLUTO” – Pipe Line Under The Ocean – became the Allied strategy. It would fuel victory with #oil production from the #USA petroleum industry. The secret pipeline mission used a popular #WaltDisney character for its logo. #OOTT
Read 26 tweets
1/19 We ask: when will Shale "blink" & go into permenant decline?

Our answer: by 2021. Which is why we see a supply gap in 2022.

Here is why, i.e. a brief summary on the Permian from David Hughes' latest report postcarbon.org/how-long-shale…. @drillinginfo @Bob_McNally @kingofcrude
2/ Shale growth is all about the Permian. But there, sweet spots have been defined & are being drilled off. Since 2009, 4 counties out of 61 have accounted for 45% of cumulative oil production of which four counties have accounted for 24%. #oott @ericnuttall @anasalhajji @chigrl
3/ Individual wells in the Permian decline quickly. The average HZ well declines 86% over the first 3 years of well life, so continual drilling is necessary to maintain field production. #oott @HFI_Research @Hedgeye @2020Upstream @staunovo
Read 19 tweets
FRIDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: And I’d like to talk energy, but really, I’ve got to talk trade first after we’ve got new tariffs coming, a lot of research notes, and very nervous markets… #OOTT #tradewar #China #trade
… as always you can follow our coverage here on Reuters.com. Our lead story right now is, the US escalated the trade war with more tariffs after the Chinese made major changes in the agreement that blew everything up earlier in the week.

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Trump has said he’s in no rush to complete the deal. So we’ve got that going for us. #trade #china Ttradewar

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Read 26 tweets

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