Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OOTT

Most recents (19)

Vol is getting crushed in nearly every asset class esp. Oil #OOTT
Bond Volatility Surge Outpaces $VIX at End of 1Q
Read 4 tweets
People might have missed this among the excitement about Saudi Aramco's bond prospectus, but it's potentially a big deal:

Saudi Arabia has only about a third of the natural gas we thought it did. #oott

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Important preamble: Aramco's accounts are the biggest secret in the world energy industry, hence the excitement about this prospectus. Most figures out there were previously just very good guesswork.
The figure I knew of before this was the one in BP's Statistical Review, a sort of handbook/bible for the energy industry: 283 trillion cubic feet.

For comparison, Exxon Mobil has iirc the biggest gas reserves among independent oil companies, at about 51 trillion cu ft.
Read 20 tweets
1/#IMO2020 is the most significant change to the global refining complex in my lifetime (..however I'm a millennial..sort of) #OOTT
2/#IMO2020 is all about getting rid of ~3.0mln bbls/d of #oil demand and creating ~3.0mln bbls/d of new supply #OOTT
3/#IMO2020 is a play on how confident shippers are (or not) using this new 0.5% blend of marine fuel #oil. Its more of a problem when there is no consensus on what will be gonig into the 0.5% blend. #OOTT
Read 8 tweets
For the 82nd Month in a row, Australian Oil import coverage stocks are well below the 90 day IEA minimum, despite increasing by 3 days and stable daily imports for December 2018. Australian #energysecurity remains vulnerable #OOTT #energypolicy #oil #auspol
Australian Net Oil Imports have increased by ~12% vs December 2017. Australia remains vulnerable to international oil supply disruptions while stocks remain >40% below the IEA 90 day minimum. #OOTT #energypolicy #energysecurity #oil #auspol #energytwitter
Australian Domestic Refinery Inputs only contribute 16% of Indigenous supply for local consumption. With production having declined consistently over the last 10 years, import dependency remains a strategic concern. #EnergyPolicy #EnergySecurity #OOTT #OIL #auspol
Read 23 tweets
#GrowthSlowing #inflation
In the 12 months through January, the CPI rose 1.6 percent, the smallest gain since June 2017. The CPI increased 1.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in December.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
#GrowthSlowing #fundflows
Money market funds recorded $21.38 billion in inflows to $3.040 trillion in the week ended Feb. 12. That was the highest level since the week of March 9, 2010, when assets totaled $3.067 trillion, according to data firm iMoneyNet.
reuters.com/article/us-fun…
Read 26 tweets
Jan2019 M.PMI APAC so far

• JP 50.3 29M L
• AU 52.5 3M H
• CN NBR 𝟰𝟵.𝟱 up
• CN Cai 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 35M L
• IN 53.9 up
• ID 𝟰𝟵.𝟵 12M L
• SK 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 6M L
• TW 𝟰𝟳.𝟱 40M L
• PH 52.3 4M L
• TH 50.2
• VN 51.9 4M L
Jan2019 M.PMI Eurozone

• EA 50.5 50L
• DE 𝟰𝟵.𝟳 50L !
• FR 51.2 4H
• IT 𝟰𝟳.𝟴 85L !
• ES 52.4 up
• NL 55.1 28L
• AT 52.7 28L
• GR 53.7 3L
• IR 52.6 27L

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Jan2019 M.PMI ex-EZ EMEA

• GB 52.8 3L
• CH 54.3 28L
• SE 51.5 29L
• NO 58.3 5H
• RU 50.9 4L
• HU 54.0
• PL 𝟰𝟴.𝟮 up
• CZ 𝟰𝟵.𝟬 72L
• TU 𝟰𝟰.𝟮 =
• ZA 50.5

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Read 5 tweets
EU MACRO ESI EA 1/n

Eurozone

• ESI 106.2 26M low
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 28M low
• Retail 47M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR
EU MACRO ESI DE 2/n

Germany

• ESI 108.5 22M low
• Manuf 24M low
• Services 7M low
• Consumer 6M low
• Retail 47M low
• Constr 4M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR $DAX
EU MACRO ESI FR 3/n

France

• ESI 101.01 2M high
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 4M high
• Consumer 3M high
• Retail 27M low
• Constr 3M low

#OGMT #OOTT #ECB $EUR $CAC
Read 12 tweets
#inflation #bonds $TLT
Charts from last night Australian time. Not updated for most recent ISM number.
1/
YoY% for average gasoline prices falling with the US 10 year yield YoY% and CPI YoY% following.
#USA #growthslowing
2/
US leading economic index YoY%, GS US financial conditions, and the St. @stlouisfed financial stress index all pointing to lower real gdp numbers for the US economy.
#USA #growthslowing
3/
If we advance GS financial conditions forward by 3 months it is likely that real GDP growth and leading economic indicators continue to track lower.
Read 12 tweets
OPEC announced it is looking into production cuts in 2019. This comes with crude oil having crashed 22% in five weeks. $CL should fly. #OOTT
Fantastic article on crude oil's supply & demand.

"American oil output up by 2 million barrels a day year on year. That’s equivalent to adding the combined production of OPEC members Nigeria and Gabon in the space of 12 months."

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… #OOTT
Thank you Trump.
Read 3 tweets
Read 4 tweets
Saudi Arabia vowed to retaliate if Trump follows through on 'severe punishment' threat over Saudi critic gone missing. Oil will go ballistic this week. Topside is particularly vulnerable after last two weeks drop. #OOTT

washingtonpost.com/world/saudi-ar…
Khashoggi, a columnist for The Washington Post, went into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct/2 to obtain paperwork to marry his Turkish fiancée. He hasn't been seen in public since.
This could have a big impact on stocks in the upcoming week given how stocks have been highly sensitive to inflation expectations since the yields breakout two weeks ago.
Read 3 tweets
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble One important difference in the cycles is that low interest rates steadily build-in distortion to the economy over time while the tightening cycle (esp. a rapid tighten) precipitates failures that quickly cascade through the economy. Criticality theory.

#EndTheFed
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble "I speak to more than a dozen ceos every single week. They all had high hopes. No longer."

"It changed in the last six weeks."

Anecdotes, but expected.

The Fed builds dysfunction into the economy with low rates - it shows when rates rise.

#EndTheFed

cnbc.com/2018/10/09/cra…
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble Cramer's relay of plunging CEO sentiment fits w/ sudden dive in Consumer Metrics 'Weighted Composite Index' starting in September.

consumerindexes.com

A sharp break to be expected after years of zero Fed rate and then increased Fed rates. Criticality Theory.

#bonds #gold
Read 15 tweets
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 131 tweets
#crudeoil! Rare for this kind of move to take place without a headline or data release, as was the case.
Extremely wild week in oil. No public news behind today's -200 tick straight down move. #OOTT
Here comes the hindsight narrative: zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-0…. Sounds legit. Though the probability of Saudis unilaterally agreeing to add another 1mmb/d is close to zero.
Read 3 tweets
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Once again. Too much to explain, so best to sum up.

First off, #OPEC and its rapidly disintegrating deal, and Trump's part in that as well. #OOTT #Iran
As is known, #Trump went out again on oil prices this morning - a week before the #OPEC deal that ratchets up, again, the tensions on whether #OPEC will do anything (which they're likely to do).
But figures we have show Saudi Arabia/Russia are already abandoning - or at least pulling away from - the deal. #OPEC #OOTT

13 Jun - RTRS - RUSSIA'S OIL PRODUCTION STOOD AT 11,1 MLN BARRELS PER DAY FROM JUNE 1-12, HIGHER THAN A QUOTA SET BY OPEC+ OIL CUT DEAL - TWO SOURCES
Read 31 tweets
Impact of the Petro-Yuan (w/ Gold settlement option) contract still to be seen; first Yuan contract settles in September 2018. As @Ole_S_Hansen notes, trading volume of the Petro-Yuan oil contract continues to build. A developing story. #OOTT #PetroGold
The Yuan/Gold settlement oil contract China has launched will fundamentally impact the Petro Dollar's dominant status. Out comes the mallet.
cnbc.com/2018/05/17/tru… #oott #oil
Russia has been receiving physical gold payment from China for oil for years.
President Trump can see where this is inevitably going globally.
Out comes the mallet.

zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-1…

#oil #oott #gold #petrogold
Read 13 tweets
$DO | Is close to completing its nearly 2yr inverted H&S bottom. The stock is up 30% since we first covered it in Feb macro-ops.com/withering-wage…. Its got a solid BS & is trading at just over 5x FCF.

I'm longer term (6m+) bullish oil but still think we see a sizable retrace soon.
$USO typically performs well later in the cycle, especially on a relative basis.
Earnings for the sector are strongly trending higher.
Read 8 tweets
(thread) Quick thread to expand on Chris' point below. People always get into trouble because they confuse Peak Oil and the Peak Oil Debate. In other words, they confuse what Peak Oil IS and what Peak Oil MEANS. #OOTT
On the former, there is and always was just one definition for Peak Oil Supply: the "max rate of oil production." It's not good, or bad, it's a number. That's all it is.
This is important because argumentation starts with common definitions and terms. Since oil is finite. a max prod rate is certain. That's why you're either with us on team "finite" that thinks Peak Oil = real. Or team abiotic oil that doesn't. The choice is yours.
Read 25 tweets

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