Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OOTT

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OIL MARKET: Washington eases its oil sanctions on Venezuela, allowing Chevron (for the next 6 months) to pump crude in the Latin American nation and export it into the United States. A major shift in the White House policy | #OOTT #Venezuela $CVX 🇻🇪 ⛽️ 🇺🇸 ImageImage
The easing of the oil sanctions come as the Venezuelan government and the democratic opposition re-started talks, brokered by Norway and Mexico. The talks between the two sides are the first direct contact in a year | #OOTT
A bit of extra context: before the sanctions were imposed, the joint-ventures between Chevron and PdVSA, the Venezuelan state-owned oil company, pumped about 200,000 b/d. So that's probably as much extra crude as we can expect -- and that will require time, money and expertise
Read 3 tweets
あの大きな動きから小康状態
WTI原油先物 1時間足チャート

再送-原油先物1%高、OPECプラス減産継続との見方で reut.rs/3VnbIVk
#OOTT
EUは露産の原油に上限価格を設定する制裁案について、完全導入延期や、出荷に関する主要な条項緩和をするかもしれない。45日間の移行期間を設けるという趣旨かもしれないので、今日の発表を待ちます。
#OOTT
bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/…
「EU大使会合が23日に開かれ、制裁の最終承認を目指すとブルームバーグが18日に報じていた。会合では具体的な上限価格の水準についても討議するという。承認されれば、EUとG7はその日の夜にも発表する可能性がある。」ブルームバーグ
#OOTT
Read 4 tweets
Kazakhstan is a top exporter of crude oil globally. Only KSA, RUS, US, IRQ, UAE, KW, BRA, NOR are bigger; at par with LY, NIG, AO or AZ (Azerbaijan).

Exports from CPC Terminal in Black Sea (RUS jurisdictions) are down 25% since Jan due to lower output at Kashagan.

1/3 #OOTT
The buoyancy tank of SPM-1 at CPC terminal is now completed.

However, operators stated Kashagan was operating at 50% of capacity in late Oct; the facility’s complete restart is slated for Nov (at earliest).

2/3
cpc.ru/EN/press/relea…
Meanwhile, the spin doctors in Russian TV are saying you are next...

3/3 @kittysquiddy
Read 3 tweets
(Thread)
1/n Energy producers scrambling along with others due to reduced energy supplies and the growing regulatory burden on producers, commodity traders like ADM, BG, and investment managers like hedge funds et al.
MARGIN FOR NON-CLEARED ENERGY TRADES TO JUMP 80% 👇
2/n
3/n
Read 9 tweets
Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management

2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!
4-9 Has the US federal government managed the oil market? Yes, and for a long time via different means. For example, the US federal government adopted a communist-style price control that controlled all energy prices throughout the 1970s.
cato.org/commentary/rem…
Read 8 tweets
Thread: Why has Oil & Gas been so volatile? Since 2018, the majority of all CDN E&P buying has come from high-turnover funds. Thus any WTI weakness had them rushing to the exits. Encouragingly, low-turnover funds have become the main buyer in 3Q

More energy inst. buying trends:
2/ As CDN Oil & Gas names hinted at bigger dividends & more growth post Q2 earnings, we saw these 'style' of funds be the dominant buyer in Q3. This theme likely continues as balance sheets allow for more ‘shareholder friendly’ items and growth into 2023 #WTI
3/ Importantly, some of the largest global funds are now picking up CDN Oil & Gas names. Given their AUM size, it can take multiple quarters to establish a position, suggesting there is more large block buying to come in future quarters #energy #CrudeOil #OOTT
Read 6 tweets
JODI update 🧵:

Global oil demand climbed in September to the second-highest level of the year and nearly 1 mb/d above year-ago levels.

1/9 #OOTT
Meanwhile, global crude production declined slightly in September. Crude production was at 99% of pre-pandemic levels while demand was at 101% of pre-COVID levels.

2/9
While markets tightened compared to August, global inventories of crude and refined products climbed counter seasonally by 3.7 mb.

Despite the build, global inventories remain 442 mb below the five-year average.

3/9 #OOTT
Read 10 tweets
#OOTT | #OPEC MOMR: CUT FULL-YEAR 2022 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.55 MILLION BPD (DOWN 100,000 BPD FROM PREV. FORECAST). CUT FULL-YEAR 2023 WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.24 MILLION BPD (DOWN 100,000 BPD FROM PREV. FORECAST).
#OPEC CUTS OIL DEMAND OUTLOOK AS IT STARTS TO CURB PRODUCTION. #OOTT
#OOTT | #OPEC MOMR: WORLD ECONOMY HAS ENTERED A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AND RISING CHALLENGES IN 4Q; LEAVES 2022, 2023 ECON GROWTH FORECASTS UNCHANGED.
Read 6 tweets
U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: 225K, [Est. 220K, Prev. 218K]
U.S. Oct. Core CPI (MoM): 0.3%, [Est. 0.5%, Prev. 0.6%]
U.S. Oct. Core CPI (YoY): 6.3%, [Est. 6.5%, Prev. 6.6%]
U.S. Oct. CPI (MoM): 0.4%, [Est. 0.6%, Prev. 0.4%]
U.S. Oct. CPI (YoY): 7.7%, [Est. 8.0%, Prev. 8.2%]
US stock index futures rally, spot #gold soars after US CPI data. ICE USD Index plunges over 100 pips to below 111. $USD $XAU
Oil futures extend gains, WTI and Brent crude up by $1 a barrel. #OOTT
Read 4 tweets

China October trade balance(in USD term) $85.15bln; Est. $95.97bln, Prev. $84.75 bln;
#Imports -0.7% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports -0.3% y/y ; Est. +4.5%, Prev.+5.7%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China October Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +586.81 bln yuan; Prev.+573.57 bln yuan;
Imports +6.8% y/y, Est.+10.0%, Prev.+5.2%.
Exports +7.0% y/y, Est.+12.7%, Prev.+10.7%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
3/ #China's Jan-October #trade with
ASEAN +15.8% y/y to 5.26 trillion yuan
🇪🇺EU +8.1% y/y to 4.68 trillion yuan
🇺🇸US +6.8% y/y to 4.21 trillion yuan
🇰🇷Korea +6.5% y/y to 2.02 trillion yuan
#trade
Read 5 tweets
Good points but a few comments:

1- It may feel like oil has been in a frenzy forever but by oil investment standards, it has been an exceedingly short time to judge spending inertia by... The invisible hand of the oil market always works faster for demand than supply.

#OOTT
2- Most major oil companies rarely make strategic shifts mid-year unless their hands are forced, usually by a price collapse. Oil companies are creatures of the annual planning cycle. The test is coming soon with a different price environment and a new energy security mandate.
3- Short-term price volatility and long-term demand uncertainty are arguably more potent deterrents of investment than shareholders or green philanthropists when cash-rich (as they now are).
Read 6 tweets
Thread – The unemployment rate within CDN Oil & Gas continues to drop, now at 2.5% (w/ Alberta even lower at 1.8%). This budget season, even if mgmt teams wanted to spend more, finding technical staff is increasingly more difficult, likely capping any large capex plans #yyc #yeg
/2 There’s been quite the hiring spree over the last couple years, with jobs in the Exploration & Production group rising ~20% since Jan 2020. That said, levels have plateaued now, even while WTI oil and NYMEX natgas prices have increased, showing the difficulty in hiring #oott
/3 The issue is a declining E&P labour force, now down 6% from recent highs, (at 104k vs. 111k last June) and more meaningfully below 2016 levels. Finding qualified geologists / engineers is becoming increasingly challenging
Read 4 tweets
Brent should have good run into Jan. BOJ Yen interv -> UST break -> weaker USD vs €\£ & EM..!

TTF/power price correction til Dec supports € s-term; CCP early import quotas; diesel shortages; 1mbpd Urals at risk; NOV OPEC cut; little unemployment yet = constructive.

#com
Last week's build reversed too (I was wrong on my early interpretation) by full 30mb.

#OOTT
Higher oil on water due to ton-mile addition, not demand issues.

With macro (USD) reversal @potus will need a new JCPOA deal (to which OPEC+ will react immediately) and more SPR releases.
Read 3 tweets
1/n ISDA’s SIMM recalibration effective Dec 5 set to increase Initial Margin req’ts on energy derivatives by 80% & brings #energy producers, commodity traders (Glencore, Trafigura, et al) & hedge funds into the fold; see Energy risk-weights under Simm: infogram.com/7954927-energy… 2/
2/n Any company with portfolios of concentrated, directional energy derivatives exposures will now be forced to deal with a massive jump in initial margin requirements & will be getting margin calls from their CCPs Dec 5. Worse, this year’s SIMM recalibration only reflects..3/
3/n energy price vol. in Europe (ah hem … Dutch TTM futures) thru Sep 2021 & this alone will drive risk-weights on European contracts for nat gas to 40 (from 22) and power & carbon to 44 (from 24). Extreme price vol in Dutch TTM futures this summer takes effect in 2023 .. 4/
Read 7 tweets
Can this relationship be saved? President #Biden and #Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman really don’t like each other, and that’s hurting Saudi-U.S. ties. With @stephenkalin and @DionNissenbaum #OPEC #OOTT #Russia #US wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…
Saudi Crown Prince Mo­hammed bin Salman, the king­dom’s 37-year-old day-to-day ruler, mocks Pres­i­dent Biden in pri­vate, mak­ing fun of the 79-year-old’s gaffes and ques­tion­ing his men­tal acu­ity, ac­cord­ing to peo­ple in­side the Saudi gov­ern­ment.
One dras­tic op­tion on the ta­ble: Saudi of­fi­cials have said pri­vately that the king­dom could sell the U.S. Trea­sury bonds it holds if Con­gress were to pass anti-OPEC leg­is­la­tion, ac­cord­ing to peo­ple fa­mil­iar with the mat­ter.
Read 3 tweets
China September trade balance(in USD term) $84.75bln; Est. $80.3 bln, Prev. $79.39 bln;
#Imports +0.3% y/y ; Est. +0.0%, Prev.+0.3%;
#Exports +5.7% y/y ; Est. +4.0%, Prev.+7.1%.
1/ thread #trade #import #export #economy 🇨🇳 🇺🇸
#China September Yuan-denominated trade data
Trade balance +573.57 bln yuan; Est.+564.30 bln yuan, Prev.+535.91 bln yuan;
Imports +5.2% y/y, Est.+8.4%, Prev.+4.6%.
Exports +10.7% y/y, Est.+11.3%, Prev.+11.8%.
2/ thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
CHINA JAN.-SEPT. IMPORTS RISE 4.1% Y/Y, EXPORTS +12.5%.
3/Thread #trade #import #export #econtwitter 🇨🇳
Read 6 tweets
JUST IN
China Q3 GDP data:
Q3 GDP YoY +3.9%[Est.+3.3%;Prev.+0.4%]
Q3 GDP QoQ +3.9%[Prev.-2.6%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
More data will be updated in this thread.
1/
CHINA SEPT HOME PRICES FALL 0.28% MONTH ON MONTH
#China #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
2/
China' Sept urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.5%[Est. 5.2%; Prev. 5.3%]
Jan-Sept urban fixed assets investment +5.9% y/y [Est.+6.00%;Prev.+5.8%]
Industrial value-added +6.3% y/y [Est.+4.5%;Prev.+4.2%]
Retail sales +2.5% y/y [Est.3.3%;Prev.5.4%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
3/
Read 7 tweets
🚨 USA Shale 🚨
My latest math & model
Like & share please #OOTT #COM #oilprice #GasPrice
This model is via EIA DPR.
It's based on averages and therefor is an estimate.
Let's dive in! The EIA has the Drilling Productivity Report at 9 million barrels oil per day ...continued 1/8 Image
Shale wells decline AVERAGE 60% per year with 40% of production remaining in the following year. I can get more precise but for simple example this is very close.
So 9M oil .6 declines so .4 remains.
9M ×.6 = 5.4M bbl/d needs replacement per year. (2/8) Image
On the 2022 dark blue line I have 160k bbl year 1 average across USA. ÷365= 438.3bbl/d per well.
5.4M decline ÷ 438.3= 12,320 wells to offset. More granular data lowers this to 5.0M + less decline is more conservative. Simply put wells older than 3yrs have lower decline (3/8) Image
Read 10 tweets
SPRに関する大統領の方針と理由
1 バレルあたり約 67 ドルから 72 ドルかそれ以下の場合、原油を買い戻す意向である
SPRの補充を確実にするため、DOEは、将来の日付で提供される製品の競争入札プロセスを通じて固定価格契約を締結できるようにする
(続く)
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
多くの石油業界関係者は、今日の高価格でさえ、将来価格が下がること可能性のため投資を心配している。
買い戻しは、原油の将来の需要について確実性を生み出す。
企業は今すぐ生産に投資するようになり、米国のエネルギー安全保障を改善する。
(続く)
#OOTT
「供給の不確実性が少なくなり、価格が低下すると予想されるときに、石油の需要を支える」と呼んでいること、「最初の買い戻しは 2024 年または 2025 年に行われる予定」と具体的に決めているのはすごい。
(続く)
#OOTT  #SPR
Read 4 tweets
European Commission Proposes Package of Emergency Energy Measures.
#EU #ONGT #OOTT
EU Proposes Rules to Launch Joint Gas Buying Among EU Countries. Joint Gas Buying Would Need to Cover 15% of Volumes Needed to Meet EU Storage Filling Targets in Winter 2023, Would Not Buy Russian Gas.
#EU #ONGT #OOTT
EU Proposes Bloc's Energy Regulator Should Launch New Liquefied Natural Gas Price Benchmark by 31 March 2023. EU Energy Regulator Acer Would Be Required to Start Daily Lng Price Assessment Two Weeks After Eu Proposal Becomes Law.
#EU #ONGT #OOTT
Read 5 tweets
Exxon Mobil の幹部は、買収を通じて生産を拡大することを検討するとほのめかした
energyintel.com/00000183-a3fd-…
#OOTT $XOM
エクソンは、1バレルあたり10ドルから35ドルの範囲内の供給コストで投資を行う戦略

エクソンは、LNG、深海、および非在来型資産の分野での新しい投資に最大の価値があると考えている
$XOM
エクソンはパーミアン盆地 での今年の生産量は 2021年と比較して25%増加
$XOM
Read 4 tweets
A few thoughts about the White House's claim that several OPEC nations communicated to Washington "privately that they also disagreed with the Saudi decision [to cut oil production], but felt coerced to support Saudi’s direction" #OOTT 1/6
Over the last three years, we have witnessed at least two instances when OPEC+ nations disagreed with Saudi Arabia, and were willing to have a very public fight about it (Mexico in April 2020, and UAE in July 2021). We saw nothing of that sort this time | #OOTT 2/6
The OPEC+ meeting in Vienna was very short, suggesting that ministers had already received instructions for a deal from their capitals, and everyone was onboard. If anyone disagreed, it didn't disagree so much as to have a fight. That suggests internal consensus | #OOTT 3/6
Read 6 tweets
The very fact that KSA feels it necessary to put out this statement is pretty extraordinary. #OOTT #OPEC
A bit of context: the WSJ report confirmed that US officials requested KSA delay the OPEC vote on cuts. KSA refused.

There have also been some subtle hints from UAE and Iraq that the cuts were not universally supported (all decisions in OPEC have to be unanimous).
But this is blustery, even for KSA, which so far hasn't suffered any real consequences for the cuts, apart from some bad press.

Someone in Riyadh is rattled.
Read 3 tweets
Let's look at Russian crude oil & petroleum product flows after 7 months of war.

Did the six sanction packages as announced by the European Commission already have an effect on exports?

1/n #Russia #OOTT @kittysquiddy @UrbanKaoboy @kingofcrude @AndurandPierre @AzizSapphire
Upfront, we collect a lot of data in real time and yet, we have to make certain assumptions. Such cells are marked in yellow for ease of reference.

On that basis, implied Russian crude production has reduced by as much as 1.5mbpd since January 2022 - a lot.

2/n
Who is buying less, who is buying more RUS crude?

OECD Europe buys 1.4mbpd less crude (sanction in Dec); Japan & Korea also down 250kbpd.

China up 100-150kbpd (little; they like diversifiction);

India up from 40 to 800kpbd;

Med Region up 150-200kbpd.

3/n
Read 10 tweets

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