Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OOTT

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There’s been a blizzard of speculation re US/Iran diplomacy – but little analysis on what the US seeks to accomplish & what will happen to Iran if it actually succeeds.

That’s where @BrewerEricM & my piece in @ForeignAffairs comes in:…


US strategy can be summed up as “Plan C.”

“Plan A” was revive JCPOA. It failed. Replacement agreement is a mirage for foreseeable future.

“Plan B” was proposed by many observers & Israeli officials to significantly ratchet up pressure. US opposed this.

Enter "Plan C."

“Plan C” aims to prevent an Iranian bomb, avoid escalation, & kick the can on a diplomatic solution–with the hope that deterrence can be maintained and diplomacy could ripen over time.

Read 15 tweets
1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil
/2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crude’s supposed ‘weakness’ since last June’s highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make
/3 the case that Demand has somehow collapsed. This is nonsense & ignores the extraordinary SPR maneuvers that were employed in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Simply put, if ~600k b/d are dumped from the SPR, oil prices should drop, & they did. Extra SUPPLY. 222mm bbbls. Historic
Read 16 tweets
Ink Research - Canadian energy names: Investor Sentiment, Insider Buying & Insider selling (last 60 days) for Apr 30 2023.
1/3 🧵
Investor Sentiment: undervalued
Buying: $BTE $TOU $OBE $ARX ( $ERF selling March)
Selling: $HWX $CNQ ( $WCP buying March) $POU $MEG
#COM #OOTT Image
Net Buying Image
Net selling Image
Read 3 tweets
US renewable diesel is approaching a breaking point. Things aren’t adding up. Let’s dive in with some highlights from my renewable diesel primer, now live on the @TheTerminal.

#OOTT, #RenewableDiesel, #RINs, #LCFS

🧵 (1/15)
Domestic production has tripled since 2019, reaching 95 kbd in 2022. My analysis of project timelines indicate supply could double this year and reach 320 kbd in 2025. (2/15) Image
US demand won’t keep up. Proposed volume mandates under the RFS only support about 143 kbd in 2023 and 167 kbd in 2025. I view this as the cap on domestic demand due to the role of RINs on producer margins. (3/15) Image
Read 15 tweets
Summary of the voluntary cuts:
RUS: 500,000
IRQ: 211,000
UAE: 144,000
KWT: 128,000
KZT: 78,000
Oman: 40,000
Algeria: 48,000 #OOTT #OPEC…
Wait for more countries to announce tonight… #OOTT
NB: Russia said after the announcement from a number of opec plus states that that it would also extend its reduction by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of the year from February as a basis, accordingly to multiple sources. #OOTT #opec
Read 4 tweets
Breaking news: Saudi Arabia will implement a voluntary cut of 500 thousand barrels per day from May till the end of 2023 in coordination with some other OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation. #OOTT #opec
The UAE will implement a voluntary cut of 144k from May until the end of 2023 #OOTT #opec
The Sultanate of Oman will voluntarily cut 40,000 barrels per day of crude oil from May 2023 until the end of 2023, in coordination with some of the countries participating in the OPEC Plus agreement #OOTT #opec
Read 7 tweets
DJ - Shaken, not stirred - 4Q22 review, and 2023/2024 estimates

Charts/tables edition 1/10 🧵

First up: 4Q22 Quarterly CFPS comparison

2023-2024 capex
EV/DACF (2024E) vs FCF yield (2024E) at strip prices (March 17)

Read 10 tweets
DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty

1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns
2. Staying on budget in 2023
3. Unbridled growth no more
4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies
5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
6. Base dividends have mostly reached a ceiling
7. The lion’s share of discretionary FCF will continue being deployed through share buybacks
8. Recycle ratios remain healthy on the back of strong commodity prices amid rising FD&A costs
Read 4 tweets
NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
-Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
$KEL (OP & $7.50 TP)
$NVA (SP & $16 TP)
$KEC (OP & $25 TP)
$POU (OP & $37.50 TP)
Read 5 tweets
TD - Exploring Full-cycle Costs & Margins of Canadian E&Ps
-Which Companies Have the Lowest Full-cycle Costs?
gas $PEY.TO $AAV, oil $CPG $WCP
-Highest margins?
$PEY (cash cost), $SDE (F&D cost & tax pools), & $CPG (realized price & tax pools) then $ARX.TO
1/x 🧵
2023E Full-cycle Cost – PDP F&D + Cash Expenses (ex. Hedging) at Strip


Full-cycle Cash Costs Relative to Commodity Mix
Full-cycle Cash Flow Margins (at Strip)


Full-cycle Cash Flow Margin Relative to Production Mix (at Strip)
Read 4 tweets
The “inevitable” underinvestment bull thesis for oil hinges on the lack of investment in new production and assumes the path of mature/existing production as mostly set in stone. It’s not.

A long🧵about the (in)famous “base decline” and why it matters #OOTT
Short version: The price reflation (if sustained) can and likely will lift medium-term oil supply by shoring up spending on existing production. Over a 5-yr horizon, shallower base declines could “add” 1-2 mb/d of supply without a single additional project.
Quick note first: this thread focuses primarily on conventional production, the majority of global crude production.

Shale has its own unique wedge and decline characteristics that warrant separate discussion.

Let's jump in.
Read 20 tweets
🧵 Gulf Marine Services #GMS.L - A deleverage story in a rapidly improving offshore market

Below a short analysis made with @Magnus12316

#rigs #shiptwit #oil #oott #offshore


#GMS.L has a fleet of 13 advanced self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels, mainly in the AG (and one vessel in the North Sea).

These are accommodation units for workers servicing offshore oil fields.

Unless fields are "closed" permanently, they need to be serviced.

The dayrate is the basic income of the vessels, then there are add-ons (VSAT, catering, etc)

GMS has 6x K-Class (Small), 3x S-CLass (medium) and 4x E-CLass (large).

Read 17 tweets
1/🧵 Alberta Energy Regulator @AER_news Board Chair David Goldie announces investigation of @ImperialOil Kearl 2022 tailings pond seepage leak + 2023 5.3 million litre tailings pond wastewater spill.

Essential background:
#OOTT #ABleg @ACFN_KaiTaile…
2/March 28 AER release: At March 16 meeting, AER Board of Directors "decided to commission an impartial, third-party review into certain aspects of the AER’s response to incidents at Imperial Oil’s Kearl facilities that took place between May 2022 and February 2023.

David Goldie Image
3/"Today, the board will issue a request for quotation (RFQ) seeking a qualified, impartial, 3rd-party" to conduct the review.

In "spirit of transparency" and to demonstrate "the regulator is both credible and trustworthy the findings of the review will be shared publicly."
Read 14 tweets
NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵

$CPG still dominates the Bakken north of the 49th

#COM #OOTT Image

Led by $PEY.TO, Orlen, $CNQ, $SDE, $CVE, $WCP

Amazing diversity between gassy and liquidy! Image
Charlie Lake


quite the range from gassy to liquidy again! Image
Read 8 tweets
The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d) Image
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously. Image
U.S. Crude Supply: In 2011, oil production was forecast to be 3.8 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 9.6 Mbbls/d).
2050 production forecast has been revised 5% higher y/y to 11.2 Mbbls/d. But overall, for the next ~30 years, the EIA expects production to remain mostly flat #permian #bakken Image
Read 15 tweets
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2023 #China Government Work Report:
🔸GDP growth target at around 5%
🔸CPI growth target at about 3% unchanged
🔸Budget deficit at 3% of GDP vs 2.8% 2022
🔸Add 12 million urban jobs in 2023 vs 11 mln 2022.
🔸Plans 3.8 tln yuan special gov bond sales vs 3.65
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2023 #China Government Work Report:
🔸Focus on expanding domestic demand, consumption
🔸More proactive fiscal policy
🔸Money supply growth to match nomical GDP growth
🔸Keep yuan exchange basically stableshore
🔸Shore up B/S of property companies
🇨🇳Key takeaways of 2023 #China Government Work Report:
🔸Improve preferential tax & fee policies
🔸Tech policies will focus on self-reliance
🔸Increase grain output by 50 million tons
🔸Push Covid-19 vaccine & drug upgrade
🔸Support elderly care & fertility
Read 4 tweets
Saudi Arabia, UAE Clash Over Oil, Yemen Amid Growing Rift: WSJ Sources
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Skipped Abu Dhabi Summit in January to Snub Emiratis: WSJ Sources
Now, said Emirati officials say, the U.A.E. is having an internal debate about leaving OPEC, a decision that would shake the cartel and undermine its power in global oil markets.
#OOTT #OPEC #Saudi #UAE…
Read 4 tweets
For months tainted tailings water from Kearl oil sands has been seeping into the environment. Last month a drainage pond overflowed, spilling 5.3m litres of industrial wastewater. A First Nation downstream says it was kept in the dark #ableg #oott #cdnpoli…
The Alberta Energy Regulator has slapped Imperial Oil with non-compliance and environmental protection orders, and feds are looking into it. Imperial says it regrets the tailings seepage and spill and is working on fixing it #ableg #cdnpoli #oott…
Athabasca Chipewyan is considering legal action against Imperial and AER including treaty rights violation. Chief & council warned community not to consume game, fish, plants harvested from the area since May, lest it be contaminated #ableg #cdnpoli #oott…
Read 3 tweets
Oil sands companies in the Pathways Alliance have awarded a $10m contract to Wood, a global engineering company, to develop detailed plans for a 400km CO2 pipeline that will eventually link >20 oil sands facilities with a storage hub near Cold Lake #cdnecon #oott #ableg
Wood’s work will focus on the main transportation line linking 14 oil sands facilities to the storage hub (think pipe size, materials, monitoring station design, route). It’ll also help inform overall capital and operations cost estimates #cdnecon #oott #ableg
The oil sands work will support a regulatory application later in the year. Pathways expects $16.5b to spent on the carbon capture network (including $ from governments). It reckons the project will ⬇️ net carbon emissions by 10-12m tonnes/year by 2030 #cdnecon #cdnpoli #ableg
Read 5 tweets
If the fracturing of the oil market in 2022 played out in Moscow, Brussels, Washington, and Riyadh, all roads for oil markets in 2023 and beyond lead to Beijing.

How did China stumble into becoming the regulator of global oil markets? A thread 🧵

China has never fashioned itself, at least publicly, as a particularly willing regulator of global oil markets.

It has never had grandiose strategic aspirations of managing oil markets beyond its own energy security and diversification priorities
By circumstance more than by design, it has found itself in the driver seat.
It was the perfect alignment of the maturation and scale of China’s oil industry (long in the making) and the fracturing of the oil system in 22-23 (sudden). Right place, right time.

A story in 4-parts
Read 13 tweets
Oilytics Weekly Chart of the Day recap: Week 6
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coming close to 1 year anniversary at the end of this month, the diesel market has mean reverted to levels seen this time last year. Diesel cracks remain $10+ from the seasonal range. (1/5)
Asian refinery runs of the 4 main countries (China + India + Japan + Korea) surged above 25MMBD only for the 3rd time ever. The December runs came in at 25.07MMBD (+0.4MMBD y/y) and just 0.1MMBD shy of the record high seen in Nov 2021. (2/5)
Read 7 tweets
The risk factor with energy investments continues to drop. The combined loan book by Canada's 6 big banks shows a 92% decrease in impaired loans to Oil & Gas (to $230 mln). What are the additional implications? -a thread #oott #energy #oilandgas
The banks comfort in the Oil & Gas sector plays a major role in capital spending plans (and ability for M&A). Despite loan impairments down, the banks have still reduced their overall lending to Oil & Gas by 54% since 1Q20 to $27 bln.
On a relative basis, Oil & Gas is now only 1.8% of the CDN bank wholesale loan business. As ancillary fees decline, so to has desire to lend, especially to smaller-cap E&Ps. The result is less sector growth, less 'farm-teams' for the majors, less exploration, etc
Read 4 tweets
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI Image
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott Image
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude #permian #eagleford #midland #bakken Image
Read 6 tweets
Okay, so WTF happened with $CL today?

Here's a thread with my best guess, although there's probably something huge I'm also overlooking.


#OOTT #COM h/t
@Josh_Young_1 There was a lot of news coming out today, first with inventories reported by the EIA at 10:30 ET.

Oil showed a build in key inventories like raw crude, diesel, and gasoline at 10:30. The market handled that well-- it was roughly inline with other numbers last night (API).

@Josh_Young_1 Bulls have been focused on oil unloadings in China and global inventories, while bears have been focused on OECD demand and US balances.

However, it's shoulder season, and there were no terrible surprises and the oil market handled things well for an hour.
#COM #OOTT 3/x
Read 5 tweets

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