Thread by @JonHoadley

The Michigan Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference for May 2020 is starting now (9:00am ET). As the Minority Vice Chair of the Appropriations Committee, I'll be participating. You can watch live here:
house.mi.gov/SharedVideo/Vi…

If you'd like to follow along with the #CREC and view the materials yourself, you can do so here:
house.mi.gov/hfa/Consensus.… #mileg

The first few slides are exactly what you'd expect. Consumer confidence is down. Unemployment is up. Travel is way down and expected to stay down. #crec #mileg

The #crec assumes Michigan schools will open in the fall. The economists caution we will need to be cautious, but having schools open impacts productivity, employment options, etc. #mileg

The #crec assumes interest rates and mortgage rates will stay low. It also notes the CARES Act was important but "not enough". Also, economic assumptions include additional revenue for states. #mileg

Two charts on GDP growth in the #crec. Expect a sharp contraction and then large quarterly growth, but they estimate it will take a while to recover. #mileg

Now addressing unemployment. Economists expect a sharp return of some jobs because the layoffs were temporary and expect to return, but perhaps *up to half* of those jobs could not return. #crec #mileg

Michigan data mirrors much of what we saw nationally. New unemployment cases are decreasing week-over-week, new COVID-19 cases are trending down, and Detroit auto sales will see a dip and then a projected rebound. #mileg #crec

The #crec economists think it will take to 2022 to recover approximately 9 out of 10 of the jobs that were lost. #mileg

Here's a really important slide to note. Because a significant portion of employees were making *less* than to are receiving now on enhanced unemployment benefits, when factoring in those benefits, personal income this quarter is likely to be 99% of the 2019 average. #mileg

If those benefits go away, we expect to see a 7% decline in personal income in Michigan if the enhanced unemployment benefits go away and we do not see a second round of stimulus. Again, this shows that personal pain is avoidable if the federal government acts. #mileg

I'm glad to see the #crec economists clarify that concern about deficit spending at this point is the wrong thing to worry about. Making sure the economy holds up is the top priority. This echoes words we heard from Fed Reserve Chair Powell earlier this week. #mileg

Up next, an update from the automotive industry. Our state economy is closely connected to the Detroit 3, so we track these statistics. The positive spikes represent major incentives like "cash for clunkers." Is it time for another round to encourage investment in greener cars?

On that point, while most vehicle sales are down, light trucks and electrified vehicles are up. #mileg

Just going to leave this right here... #crec #mileg

This last part of the auto sector conversation is really interesting. We're not likely to see a substantial increase in personal vehicle ownership because of consumer demographic trends, more people teleworking post pandemic, etc. #crec #mileg

Now the "conference" part of the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. They expect a slight decline in pupils in our schools, mostly through auditing. The conference did consider the impact of COVID-19 & expects traditional K-12 schools to offer more online options. #mileg

We're expecting to see record numbers of people using the Heathy Michigan Plan, part of the medicaid expansion program under the Affordable Care Act. Also, remember that a number of Republican lawsuits are trying to dismantle the Affordable Care Act. #mileg

...so here are the various estimates of how bad the GDP crunch may be and places it in historical context. Then, the #crec projects GDP moving forward. It'll take to 2022Q4 to get us back to where we were. #mileg

The #crec is less optimistic about job recovery. This points to why we need expanded unemployment benefits and real relief for families. #mileg

The #crec tried to say it nicely, but here's the bottom line: when Republicans kept using fixed earmarks for projects and called it "new" spending (think their 2015 roads plan), we have even less flexibility to respond to the current crisis in our general fund. #mileg

And here are the final #crec numbers. Big drops of revenue this year and next. In closing, the #crec called for a THIRD #crec in August of 2020.