Thread by @aliostad

Day 78 - Covering #COVIDー19 in Iran

Picking up from yesterday

What you need to know about me

[Current Outlook]

We ARE in the second wave. Number of provinces with a rising trend increasing with Khuzestan situation remaining critical.

Authorities are going to extend the reinstated lockdown in the hot province of Khuzestan (4.7M).

The number of cases keep rising, yesterday it was a x3 within 24 hours.

With all of this going in Khuzestan and lockdown, you would think religious festivals for the death of 1st Imam would not be held.

Well, think again. This is the city of Khorramshahr (133M) in Khuzestan:

Authorities maintain that the rise in cases in Khuzestan is mainly from mild cases and better testing, with hospital admissions rising only 60% vs outpatient (200%).

No evidence yet of lack of hospital beds I have seen to reject that claim.

isna.ir/news/990225184…

So authorities had initially shut 9 (+1) town/cities in Khuzestan but the number is now 16.

isna.ir/news/990226187…

Enough of Khuzestan, what about the rest of country.

I have stopped caring too much for the official numbers but even that is now +2000 while it was <1000 two weeks ago.

So I think second wave is established - although I must say in most places under control.

These provinces were in my list of hotspots before:
- Lorestan (1.8M)
- Sistan (2.8M)
- (Bushehr?)

Yesterday these were added:
- Hormozgan (1.8M)
- North Khorasan (870K)

Today East Azerbaijan (3.7M) was added.

Bear in mind these provinces are very HOT (+40ºC):
- Khuzestan
- Hormozgan
- Sistan
- Bushehr

You can find AC in most offices and houses. But to say that hot season could wipe off the disease is just not gonna happen.

I have to reiterate that the provinces which experience an avalanche of #COVIDー19 cases in the first wave, are now in a very good condition and we do not see a severe second wave.

Lorestan (in 2nd wave) had a relatively bad first wave but nowhere near Gilan, Qom and Mazandaran.

I have been following the developments in Qom, the epicentre. I can say that total number of hospitalised cases are slowly going down.

Hospitalised:
- 27 Apr: 170
- Today: 129

Seriously ill:
- 27 Apr: 50
- Today: 35

Also Mazandaran (especially Babol) was initially said to have had a second wave but no further confirmation.

Gilan has been stable since the 1st wave subsided as well as Tehran, Qazvin, Zanjan, Hamadan, Alborz, Markazi (central), Semnan and Khorasan Razavi.

So my #takeaway is this:

[Unless I am early to judge] limited reopening of businesses and resuming activities while maintaining a level of social distancing does not result in a fierce second wave in places where had it bad during the first wave.

Leaving you tonight with this:

Mateen Qoddusi, an 18-year-old football prodigy and rising star, has died of #COVIDー19. He got to fame in a reality TV show which finds youngsters with exceptional football talent. RIP.