1. Good message here about early crop condition ratings. Just don't contain much information. This gives me the chance to review some previous #fdd articles on condition ratings.
2. First up is a pair of #fdd articles on high early season corn and soybean ratings from 2018. Corn farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/06/what-t… and soybeans farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/06/high-e…
3. These articles cover: i) degree of bias in early season corn and soybean condition ratings, and ii) degree of predictability in early season corn and soybean condition ratings.
4. Here is the average change from first to last ratings for corn. Note larger bias after 1998. Ratings hardly ever go up much from first to last. Hard to figure out why.
5. Similar story for soybeans. Why the bigger bias the last 20 years?
6. This chart shows correlation of condition ratings with final US average corn yield. Correlation of first rating is low, 0.20, but not zero. Based on first rating of 70 could lean slightly above trend for 2020.
7. Pattern of correlation of condition ratings and US average soybean yield by week different than corn. Starts higher but increases more slowly.
8. I always thought there was a lotta insight about corn and soybean yields in previous 2 charts. Late June-July weather critical for corn and correlations reflect that. Soybean critical growing period stretches well into August and correlations reflect that.
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