Thread by @PuffDragon11

1/ Chart study from Dragon's Den. This is the big picture. It has absolutely NOT changed at all and my guide for next 2-3 years.

2/ The 3 peaks pattern is the true market nesting pattern. In the last big picture chart, we see that 2000-2009 was a giant ABC corrective. Going one step bigger, 2000 - now is also a giant ABC but we have only just begun the C.

3/ In some ways, that will make the coming decline as well as the 2007-2009 decline similar in terms of pattern and character. It won't be 100% as the market has ways of making things a bit dynamic but the overall arch should be similar.

4/ We also saw that 2010-2012 was another ABC corrective flat. So we have at least 2 recent historical models.

5/ The 2008 model might give is a glimmer of what is to come. Pay attention to all the lines. Also, C waves are FAST and much short than B. If time ratio holds, we have some timing targets too.

6/ That last chart says we are at a peak and heading to slight new lows. My guess is ~2000 on S&P. Perhaps into Aug. Rally into election, then drop into end of year to ~1800-2000 range. That completes Wave 1 of our giant C wave.

7/ From there, another massive rally for a few months though this one likely a fib retrace from the very top. Let's say 3400 to 1900 = 1500, so a 38% or 50% retrace at best. Then wave 3 starts.

8/ This is the actual meat of the decline and will be a LONG period of relentless selling...with some attempts to bounce in between. But I suspect this period is when it all falls apart finally and the index drops below 1000.

9/ But not done yet, because then we start to build the real bottom and final drop into a point of despair. "Don't fight the Fed"? Yeah, good luck with that.

10/ Here is the 20011 model. Shorter time frame which can introduce a little more variation but I think you can still see common elements. This was also an internal part of the rally phase and not BC 0f the ABC 3 peaks.