Thread by @philosophikyo

you know, I complain a lot about not getting to deal with the agarthans in #fe3h AM route but it actually makes a lot of sense for Hubert to not write any letter to Faerghus to address the issue because the dynamics of the war are so different depending on who defeats the empire

in VW, from the empire's point of view, you're unexpectedly losing to Claude, the man lauded as "the master tactician" whose political brilliance to maintain a united front out of a inherently politically fractured alliance keeps the empire out of his territory for 5 entire years

and when the alliance starts taking initiative, it appears he's not only a master of political tactics, but also military tactics. He's winning key battles with fewer men and breaking impenetrable fortresses from the inside out. In context of the war, the alliance is a surprise.

the empire is losing unexpectedly to the alliance, the wildcard faction on fodlan and it's led by a master tactician. Defeat becomes a real possibility, but the opposing commander has proven to be incredibly competent. You know what, he's a good backup. I'd write that letter.

on the other hand, in AM, the empire is winning a 5 year war against the kingdom. They're on the cusp of breaking the backbone of the kingdom resistance. Suddenly a small military force takes Garreg Mach and starts causing trouble, but they're led by a madman so... it's fine

the kingdom army absorbs a major force of fraldarius soldiers and makes a move on myrddin, which, okay weird, then marches to gronder, haha look these guys want to die they have Nothing behind them. They've thrown everything into this assault, and left their resistance nothing.

then the empire??? loses????? at gronder???? and the kingdom army??? also decimates??? the alliance?????????

literally H O W

in the greater context of the war, NOBODY saw this coming, NOT EVEN THE KINGDOM ARMY ITSELF

AND THEN THE KINGDOM??? TURNS AROUND??? AND LEAVES?????? they march for Fhirdiad after basically ruining everyone on the continent's day at Gronder, which was, remember, a move that overall, MADE NO SENSE TACTICALLY FOR AN ARMY IN THEIR POSITION and now they don't follow through.

as the empire regroups on Adrestian soil, it very much becomes apparent that the kingdom forces have No Set Direction based on past movements. They may have the power of the messiah on their side, but that messiah is Not Interested in anything besides Listening To The Mad Prince

ok fine, if the kingdom wants to kill Cornelia so bad, let them, Edelgard and Hubert want her dead anyway. But hey, since the kingdom army severely weakened the alliance and destabilized it... this war is still Hashtag Winnable. The empire marches for the alliance.

and they almost take it. They're /this/ close to conquering Derdriu when who shows up but the fucking Army Of The Kingdom Of Faerghus.

Turns out Claude threw his cards down and went all in on a leap of faith, and made an incredibly ballsy move, and he saved the alliance with it

the empire loses at Derdriu, and now Thales is dead. At this point, the tide of war has shifted. The kingdom has taken back almost all they've lost, and the alliance has folded under it, bolstering their forces. We are now at a stalemate in the greater context of the war.

but the war is still Hashtag Winnable. It's even now, but adrestia is still the bigger power. They Can Still Win The War.

Meanwhile the kingdom has only 1 direction to go, so they brute force their way through every obstacle in a straight line and end up at the gates of enbarr.

Imagine you are Hubert von Vestra. You have watched your beloved emperor's inevitable conquest of Faerghus get derailed by a small kingdom resistance force led by a revenge-hungry madman. You watched that ragged army take forces from its battered resistance backbone and

make a suicidal forward march to gronder field, on Your territory, with the alliance poised with knives at their back. Yes, they won?? somehow??? but then they turned around at the whims of their mad prince, and returned to Faerghus to retake Fhirdiad, allowing your forces

to regroup and leaving the alliance as easy pickings for you. Then they.. somehow.. thwart... that, and now they've basically battle rammed their way in a straight line right to your front door.

Minister Hubert von Vestra of the Imperial Household, how Confident are you in this army's competence? 1st of all: do you believe Emperor Edelgard will lose? 2nd of all: can she afford to lose to This Army? This Specific Army Of The Kingdom You Nearly Succeeded In Annexxing?

3rd of all: IF -and it's a HUGE IF- IF your emperor Somehow loses, do you believe Prince, soon to be King Dimitri Alexandre Blaiddyd, prince of delusion, infamous madman of Fodlan (based on last known evidence), is willing and capable of taking out the agarthans once and for all

Thales is dead already anyway, so...

yeah i wouldn't write that letter either.

in summary, hubert no write letter re: agarthans in AM bc:
1) save face for Edelgard; admitting that defeat is possible at the hands of This Specific Mess Of An Army is inconceivable
2) Cornelia and Thales are dead
3) Dimitri? Competent and capable? Not for this responsibility.

fuck just realized i hadn't even discussed the CHURCH in all of this IM THE WORST THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT

of all the factions on Fodlan, Edelgard and her empire FUNDAMENTALLY cannot fathom defeat or surrender to 1) The Church of Seiros and 2) The Kingdom of Faerghus

to end the church's influence in Fodlan, you MUST eliminate the hubs of power of the church of seiros: Garreg Mach, the headquarters of the central church, and The Kingdom of Faerghus, the stronghold of the western church and home of the Most Devout population on the continent

the Church of Serios ideologically holds incredible power in Faerghus, everything from its monarchy to its governing system to its code of chivalry is guided by the teachings of Seiros. To eliminate the church's power on Fodlan, Faerghus MUST be conquered and its systems rebuilt

otherwise, the church of seiros and its teachings will endure in Faerghus, and give the church the resources, the territory, and the devout population it needs to remain relevant, and rebuild. Edelgard cannot stand for this if she intends to see her vision through.

to stay true to her ideals, Edelgard cannot even Consider that the Kingdom can defeat the Empire. Family drama with Dimitri aside, to surrender to Faerghus after her proclamation when she initially declared war would mean she failed in every single way in her mission

Defeat would mean everything she did since the moment she decided the Church needed to be eliminated would be for /nothing/.

that's not a reckoning she can live with.

so she doesn't.

The church is Edelgard's primary objective. The agarthans are an afterthought, and they're not as important.

Because in AM, Faerghus is going to win, the agarthan plot is just less important to Edelgard and Hubert to consider "post-war"

because AM post-war means complete failure of Edelgard's primary mission. Defeat means nothing matters.

The agarthans don't matter.

So Hubert doesn't write a letter, because that future where Edelgard loses to Faerghus who is proxy of the church: that future is pointless.

so, review: hubert no write letter in AM bc:
1) faerghus is proxy of the church - defeat means the future is meaningless
2) the faerghus army is a mess we cannot lose
3) cornelia and thales are dead
4) hubert won't trust dimitri to do a single thing right, much less THIS