Thread by @skywalker_2k

#ThreeGorgesDam #3GD #ChinaFlood

1/ Since someone asked me for an update about China's situation on rain, flood, & dam (#3GD), so I decided to put together this mini report for everyone. I'll give you a quick update, then explain the catch 22 #3GD is facing.

2/ 1st of all, here's a 1.5-min quick news (English), please check it:

News said "Guizhou has the worst hit" today. Below is a snapshot from yesterday China weather forecast; I point out where Guizhou is & how bad the flood is :

3/ Although today's rain is not directly above Yangtze river, but half of those water will find their way back to Yangtze in the following 1-2 days (and, keep in mind, rain will keep coming).

Here is the catch22 for #3GD :

When #3GD was built, no one expected rain will...

4/ ...come for upstream & downstream along the river AT THE SAME TIME (let alone for raining this long). Upstream overflooding for too long will pose real danger to upstream cities & to #3GD itself because of many structural issues (no piling, many cracks in concrete, etc.),

5/ and a dam break will mean biblical scale catastrophe for downstream cities.

So, to protect #3GD (FYI, China is also trying to do an IPO in Shanghai for #3GD this year!), sooner or later it'll have no choice but to open the floodgate in FULL capacity.

6/ Question: what's the difference between letting water out in FULL capacity & a "dam break" ? Answer : probably some, but not by a lot a lot.

Wait a sec, isn't rain also pouring & flooding downstream cities too? Now, do you see,

7/ if rain doesn't stop right now (which isn't), "flooding disaster happening to downstream cities" is now basically baked in, regardless #3GD breaks or not.

The question left is, WHEN will #3GD opens the floodgate in FULL capacity; that's what I keep my eyes on.

End thread