Thread by @stv_smth

A key @theCCCuk chart on whether the UK is on track.

They may not want to say this, but might the 5th Carbon Budget be in the bag despite the lack of policy progress? (1/n)

theccc.org.uk/publication/re…

The projection on the above chart was made in 2018. Very much pre-lockdown. The CCC report notes that estimates for UK 2020 emissions now range from a 2% to a 13% decline on 2019.

(2/n)

If we start from a 2 or 13% reduction in 2020 and continue the 2018 projections forward, you get the range within the dark blue dotted lines here:

(3/n)

Looks like the 5th carbon budget (the final grey bar) is within reach. And given recent trends I believe the lower end of that range more than the upper end.

(4/n)

Several caveats of course, including that a) post-Covid is not likely to be a simple continuation of the projection from a revised 2020 point - we could simply bounce back to old ways, or perhaps push emissions down further with a green recovery...

(5/n)

... and b) carbon budgets are measured against the "net carbon account", not these lines (it's complicated).

(6/n)

But will we see more of what we have seen so far, which is carbon budgets met by a combination of limited climate policies and lower-than-expected demand growth?

(7/n)

Also @theCCCuk making pretty clear that the 6th Carbon Budget will be another big step down. Carbon Budgets 1-5 were all set on the path to an 80% cut, not #NetZero.

(8/8)