Thread by @rubiconcapital_

Initiated a position today @ $.075/sh

BASIC THESIS:

Now a [more 'investable'] "levered equity stub" after closing $24m equity fin'g @ $.13/sh, repaying almost all punative/vigilante debt, w/ highly manageable maturities, breakeven+, and runway to reveal earnings power.

B/S is truly (and finally) significantly strengthened imo, w/ latest raise quite likely the last.

Mkt cap ~$50m & EV ~$175m, 71m warrants @.07/sh ($5m infusion), & 181m warrants @.16/sh ($30m infusion) would heal B/S even more, and could result in reflexive price recovery.

Interesting Friday filing on

MMCAP took 41% of the recent $0.13/unit 1-share/1-warrant bot deal (75m of 181m units/shares).

But, the filing disclosed only 75m warrants, and no associated shares (only legacy shares), potentially implying short sales before/after bot deal.

The bot deal raised $23.5m, of which MMCAP took ~$9.75m, & proceeds were used to pay down almost all punitive convertible debt, including a portion of MMCAP's original $15m debenture (Sept 2021 mat) down to $7m (effectively paying themselves(!) / a conversion price reset(!)

But, the above signals an interesting, potential shift in MMCAP's (and others') interest in and economic alignment with commons, in my view: they now stand to potentially make more money being long vs. short/neutral.

With MMCap's 75m $.16 strike warrants (181m total), there is now, in my view, a tangible incentive to exercise those warrants above $.16, infusing w/ $29m, repaying all remaining (minimal) convertible debt (and more), resulting in a "healed" balance sheet and ~$225m EV.

(...and lastly), the other side of that coin / the risk to my view is that MMCap's intention is not to be long, and simply intend to monetize their 75m warrants when they trade (but that's 41% of the warrant class to unload)... ultimately opperformance will be what matters.