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Kelly Brown Profile picture
Kelly Brown
@rubiconcapital_
Independent investor. Concentrated portfolio in high-quality companies with ethical, competent management. Accidental fungus baron.
10 subscribers
Apr 2, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
RESILIENCE🧵

In 2019, I suffered a humiliating public and costly investment loss at the hands of cannabis "shitco" I got behind.

My peak-to-trough portfolio loss in just 15 months was -73%.

Prior to that, my 6.5yr CAGR was 33%.

I could have given up.

But I didn't... My 2019 loss was the most challenging experience of not only my investing career but of my entire life.

I lost 73% of my capital in 15 months – capital I had compounded at a high rate for 7 years, in a prudent, disciplined manner, that brought many inward and outward emoluments.
Oct 3, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
I would like to disabuse everyone, including the media, of the notion that drug/opioid toxicity deaths and COVID-19 explain all of the increase in total deaths in 🇨🇦. They do not.

A brief 🧵, with just the raw numbers, in an easily digestible format. Please share widely. Note: for simplicity, the figures I present in the tweets below are for three provinces only, combined: Ontario, Alberta and BC. They have the country's largest drug epidemics with the highest absolute drug death counts:
Aug 21, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Unfortunately, Statistics Canada can no longer be trusted.

After at least 5 months of published estimates showing growing excess all-cause mortality in New Brunswick 🇨🇦, in their August update @StatCan_eng has revised NB deaths down to the baseline.

Colour me skeptical. The excess deaths in New Brunswick 🇨🇦 first garnered the attention of national media in June 2022...
cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…
Aug 16, 2022 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
IMPORTANT

This Alberta 🇨🇦 study vilifying unvaccinated people made the rounds yesterday.

But it does not address some serious flaws in the way vax/unvax data is collected. I will ask @drseanbagshaw to address them here in this short 🧵. Please read and share. cc:@AlexBerenson Two Major Flaws:

#1. Does not indicate whether unvaccinated patients include those patients that received their 1st dose <13 days prior to admission.

We know from Alberta statistics (no longer available) that a striking # of admits (and deaths) occur shortly after 1st dose.👇🏼
Jul 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🚨THIS IS MASSIVE NEWS🚨

In response to Dr. Moore's sensible risk/reward vaccine guidance, @KateHanneman of the Cardiology community is PUSHING BACK, and downplaying the risk of Myocarditis!

They are WRONG, they have been WRONG, and now they know they are wrong! The above article from @RichardCityNews needs to be retracted! He is citing 204 cases of Myocarditis of the 775 total cases of Myo or Pericarditis heart damage, IGNORING ALL 572 other cases of heart damage deemed peri or myo/peri, therefore citing a false 1 in 61,000 (all ages)! Image
Jul 4, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Ontario Mortality Update
(@StatsCanada Estimates)

*Record High Deaths in Q1/2022*

33,183 total deaths (all ages)
+17% vs. '17-'19 Q1 average
+10% vs. Q1/'21

WHY IS ONTARIO EXPERIENCING RECORD HIGH MORTALITY IN 2022 AMID WEAKER VARIANTS & 50+ AGES 95% FULLY-VAXED & 81% BOOSTED? Note: the "Non C-19 Excess" in the above chart refers simply to the total number of deaths above the 2017-2019 average that are not explained by Covid-19 death counts.
Jun 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
In May 2021, the Ontario Science Table @COVIDSciOntario published this report on all-cause mortality.

@gemma_postill, a then undergrad student, working with Ontario's Chief Coronor, used cremation data to facilitate near real-time analysis.

This report ought to be updated.🧵 All-cause mortality, especially in ages 0-44 continues to persist, and since the May 2021 report, has *accelerated* in BC, AB, and NB through the end of 2021. Drug/Covid deaths can only explain a portion of the phenomenon, esp. in NB where drug deaths remain low/consistent.

2/4
Jun 16, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
"EU Health Commissioner...noted: 'Contracts must be honoured', adding the EU 'cannot unilaterally change the terms of the contracts'."

Govt's and Pfizer/Moderna are set to play a game of chicken on vaccine deliveries. The people are done!

Big part of my $PFE short thesis. $PFE and $MRNA have told Wall St. in their revenue guidance they will sell over 3 billion vaccines in 2022. This includes a combined ~700m doses still to be delivered to the EU on top of ~200m current excess. Here's a summary of some of the global oversupply, including the EU.
Jun 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
New Brunswick, 🇨🇦
Latest from @StatsCanada

Excess mortality (all ages) accelerates beginning in summer 2021.📈

Last 25 weeks of 2021:
4,599 actual deaths, minus
3,713 expected deaths...
=886 excess deaths (24% excess)

Only 114 Covid-19 deaths in the same period.
Quick🧵(1/9) As reported by @CBCNB, the NB Health Minister @ShephardDorothy confirmed the province is investigating, with the support of Premier @premierbhiggs, and with opposition leader, @RogerMelanson pressing them. (2/9) cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…
Jun 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
mRNA Vaccine Oversupply, by the numbers
US🇺🇸 EU🇪🇺 UK🇬🇧 Canada🇨🇦 (combined)
Pfizer+Moderna

Purchase Agreements (2021+2022):
~3.1 billion doses

Delivered:
~2.0 billion

Given:
~1.5 billion

Available excess:
~0.5 billion

Still to deliver under '21+'22 contracts:
~1.1 billion Note: Numbers above include only contracted amounts, and exclude purchase options.

Sources (1/2):

- Pfizer/Moderna company filings (for dose agreements)

- EU CDC (dose admin/shipment data): vaccinetracker.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensi…

- US CDC (dose admin/shipment data): covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Jun 7, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Pfizer will not meet its 2022 revenue guidance of $32 billion in Covid-19 vaccines and $22 billion in Paxlovid pills.

It won't even come close.

Thesis: Short, $PFE. Pfizer will not have an ongoing Covid-19 mRNA franchise as it and Wall St. currently predict.

$PFE's 2021 EPS of $4.42 included ~$2.50/sh of contribution from C-19 vaccines... and Wall St.'s $6.80/sh 2022 EPS estimate for 2022 is a laughable delusion.
May 20, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
I thought it time to disclose to everyone the following:

I am short Pfizer $PFE. I have made a bet material to my net worth that Pfizer stock will decline drastically.

I own deep out of the money puts expiring January 2023, June 2023, and January 2024. DISCLAIMER: the above is not investment advice—do your own due diligence.

The above investment was initiated only recently, and everyone that follows me knows I have been bravely tweeting on C-19 issues for nearly two years—well before this investment was initiated.
May 13, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
ICYMI today, @JustinTrudeau agreed to send another $532 MILLION of our money (presumably without parliament) to something called the "Access to COVID-19 Tools-Accelerator", a @WHO initiative still trying to vaccinate the world, particularly low income countries that have said no! The WHO said, "jump"...
Apr 11, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
What is going on in Alberta and British Columbia?

From Stats🇨🇦 data, excess deaths in ages 0-44 as of Dec. '21 are MORE THAN 70% of expected deaths, since accelerating in Jul '21.

This is the real "tsunami of death", and a public health emergency that must be investigated ASAP. The number of deaths year-to-year are predictable. But as of Dec. '21 in Alberta & BC, actual deaths are far exceeding the number of expected deaths (by a factor of ~1.7x).

These deaths cannot be explained by Covid-19. So what is causing them? Citizens deserve to know.
Apr 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🇨🇦 Ages 0 to 44 - Excess Mortality 🚨

This cohort including millennials, saw persistent >25% weekly excess deaths to Oct. 2021, after a rapid acceleration in July 2021.

The rate of change starting in July can't be explained by a sudden rush of suicides, overdoses, cancers, etc. Lockdown-related deaths were clear drivers of excess mortality in this group in 2020. Excess deaths began trailing off at the end of 2020 / start of 2021, but then re-accelerated suddenly in summer 2021, as Covid-19 deaths were low and declining, and as vaccine programs finished.
Mar 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In Ontario
Pandemic of the Young & Boosted?

Two Charts:
1⃣Boosted are driving current case increase
2⃣Of those boosted, Millennials + Gen-x (18-59) are highest rates and multiples of 60+

Why the high case rates in boosted, and why do young & boosted appear more susceptible? (Data note: first week shown is actual day case rate per 100k, thereafter is 7dma case rate per 100k).
Source: data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/cov…
Feb 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Pfizer added new and peculiar items deep in its business risk disclosures re: clinical trial data, today in its Q4 earnings.

(1/3)
"...risks associated with...further information regarding the quality of pre-clinical, clinical or safety data, including by audit or inspection;" (2/3)
"...challenges related to public confidence or awareness of our COVID-19 vaccine or Paxlovid, including challenges driven by misinformation, access, CONCERNS ABOUT CLINICAL DATA INTEGRITY and prescriber and pharmacy education;"

(all-caps are mine)
Jan 7, 2022 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
*New Data* from @CIHI_ICIS

Can you spot the pandemic?
We can now compare hospital/ICU data for the "pandemic" period to the 2019 "pre-pandemic" period.

1. 🇨🇦 ICU Admissions by Diagnosis:

Pandemic admits below '19 pre-pandemic levels. "Major respiratory" a minimal contributor. 2. 🇨🇦 Total Inpatient Hospital Admissions by Diagnosis:

Overall pandemic hospitalizations below pre-pandemic levels. Major respiratory diagnosis a minimal contributor to overall admissions.

Hospitals are in crisis?
Dec 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
A cautionary myocarditis tale from 🇨🇦, in four pictures: Addendum #1
Dec 11, 2021 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
(1/4) MORE ON WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS

As we mix regardless of vaccination status, in respect of each other's medical choices, we ought to share in our unspoken sadness that we are being dehumanized though inescapable use of QR codes for all manner of activities. #heartsandminds (2/4) MORE ON WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS

And with our vaccinated friends and family, together we can reflect on a changing definition of fully vaccinated, which invalidates and betrays those who previously chose vaccination. #heartsandminds
Nov 19, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
From Stats🇨🇦 weekly death counts by cause of death:

In Ontario, AB and BC, "Ill-defined & unspecified causes of death" have been rising in sync with C19 vaccine dose administration.

NOTE: correlation only (but troubling). @PublicHealthON should investigate possible causation👇 Here is Alberta (cc: @AHS_media):