Thread by @ScottIrwinUI

3. Sampling error? Let's say true PC area is 315 mil. Then, 7.2/315=2.3%. But USDA says at that standard error for individual crops range from 1 to 6%. This means it is extremely unlikely that sampling error across all crops could be as large as 2.3%.

4. Leaving land fallow or switching to forage/pasture? This certainly could contribute and I believe that it did. But how much? I find it hard to believe that it would be more than maybe 1-2 million acres. Remember that 70% of drop was in corn acres. Corn acres to forage???

5. There are two reasons I am skeptical of the corn to forage explanation. First, we know that corn acres did not go into other row crop acres overall. Second, as chart below shows, the decline was widespread across many states across the country.

6. Yes some of the big declines in corn acreage were out west. But notice there were also large in the heart of the Corn Belt (IL, IN). I'm not saying that there was no switching of corn to forage/pasture acres, but instead I don't think that can be the biggest factor.

7. Prevent plant? I think we are getting warm now. I took some bashing on #agtwitter in late May for arguing that conditions were ripe in several parts of the Corn Belt for larger than expected PP acres, starting with the ND.

8. Why PP in 2020? First, by late May the end of corn planting season had slowed considerably in some areas. PP corn in ND was May 25. Second, incentives to take PP if you could were very high given drop in new crop futures prices into planting. Who wouldn't if they could?

9. On PP, last point. I think we learned some very expensive lessons about PP in 2019 especially out here in the eastern Corn Belt. I think we broke the rural taboo about not planting something if the economics favored not planting.

10. Good news is that we can figure out which one of these alternative explanations is correct with the FSA acreage data that will be forthcoming. Either PP acres are there not!