Thread by @areacode416

Toronto Real Estate stats for June - first look 👀
Sales winding up very close to 2019 (⬇️1.4%), though TRREB touting ⬆️89% from May! and ⬆️84% from May! on actual and seasonally-adjusted basis, respectively. /1

That's nice that stuff bounced back from the COVID-19 lows. I've been calling it a "delayed spring" so where June is normally starting to slow down, this year it sped up. So now we might be in for a "delayed summer."

Or may not. Things are so wacky now, one can only guess. /2

The wackier thing is that YoY average prices are ⬆️11.9% across the GTA. For May it was only +3.0% so that's a big jump in a month. May GTA avg was $864K.

The June $931K tops Feb's $910K. Likely some mix stuff happening here (e.g. more houses). Will dig deeper later. /3

HPI actually decelerated to +8.17% YoY for June after reaching 9.43% in May. So that seems to back-up the mix causing big increase in average price theory. /4

Looks like 905 really driving the comeback. On 3 of the 4 housing types 905 did better in YoY sales. Check out Detached at +10.5% for 905 but -10.0% for 416.

Also note 10.8% detached price overall is lower than 416 and 905. /5

That only happens if 905 goes up in the mix. Sure enough in June 2019, 905 was 76% of detached sales, in June 2020 that was up to 80% of detached.

And June 2019 detached was 47.7% of GTA sales.
June 2020 was 51.1%.
Since detached most expensive type, will ⬆️ avg price. #mix /6

⭐️Sign of flight to outer suburbs? Look at how much SNLR has jumped for 905 since April depths... 49% to 54% to 59%. Really heated up. While 416 held steady at 47% and 45% and 46%. Weird because feels hotter on the ground (at least downtownish). /7

First time for 416 average prices to top $1 million. I thought must be big drop in condo share but were 45.8% of 416 June sales this year, not too far off from 47.1% last June.

Note large ⬆️ in GTA new listings, but even larger ⬆️in sales so market tightened. /8

TRREB had predicted 97,000 GTA sales for the year. Has now revised that down to 80,000. Would be ⬇️8.8% from 2019. YTD of 35,972 sitting ⬇️18.5% from 2019.

YTD avg TRREB price is $891,167 👀
For all of 2019 was $819,319. So we're sitting ⬆️8.8% despite 2.5 terrible months. /9

I'm pleased that TRREB finally listened and didn't split any tables across 2 pages in its press release. The fact that was allowed to go on so long was really bush league. Much more to improve, but... baby steps. 🐾 /10

As always this is just my midnight first-look. A more in-depth look into the 416 stats - I especially am interested in condos this month - will come in the following days. /11

TRREB dollar volume YTD June
2020: $32.1 billion
2019: $35.6 billion

So, down 10%. Could be worse for the provincial and Toronto land transfer tax receipts. /12