Max Bergmann Profile picture
Director Europe, Russia, Eurasia @csis. Host EuroFile/RussianRoulette. Fmr State Department (PM/T/SP). Dad, husband. Largely at @maxbergmann.bsky.social

Jul 7, 2020, 5 tweets

I think this is a slight misreading. Economic calamity after 08 gave space for reactionary resentment politics to emerge as a driving force of democratic politics. Here w/ TeaParty/Trump and in Europe: AfD-Germany, Lega/5 star-Itay, National Front-France, Brexit...

Basically the 08 crisis destabilized politics in the center, creating problems for moderate parties on left and right. For ex. GOP “moderates” ala the Romney wing gradually lost control of the party. In France, the fringy National Front/Rally became leading party on the right...

AfD pulled from the SPD labor base. The left wing Syriza in Greece came to power after centrist parties failed.

But now with a major socio-economic calamity... a true oh s*** moment...populists everywhere are flailing.

The big question is whether this is temporary. My fear is that populists are down now... but if there’s another follow on economic crisis populists could capitalize.

Worth remembering that the Nazi party emerged politically after econ crises of early 20s. Yet it only took power in 1933, 4yrs after 1929 econ crash and did so w/ just 1/3rd of the vote. It was a fringe presence that was able to capitalize on disaffection with mainstream parties.

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